SCGM(1,m)_c model with time-lag and its application in deformation analysis

Abstract

Originated in the early 1990s, SCGM(1,m)_c model has enjoyed widespread application in the fields of urban planning, society economy prediction and modal control in recent years. However, none of these applications have taken account of time-lag effects in the modeling process. Aiming at overcoming the defect, the authors introduced time-lag items into SCGM(1,m)_c model and developed a SCGM(1,m)_c model with time-lag, then discusses in detail some principal problems in the model, such as parameters estimation, model verifying, model prediction, etc. The model was used on a real slope monitoring project and compared with the conventional SCGM(1,m)_c model. The results show an improvement of average models precision from 1.321 to 0.238 and total average of relative prediction errors from 12.41% to 7.98% when the modeling data length ranges from 29 to 48 in the slope monitoring case.