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Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt

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Abstract

We present an approach to regional environmental monitoring in the Northern Eurasian grain belt combining time series analysis of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data over the period 2001-2008 and land cover change (LCC) analysis of the 2001 and 2008 MODIS Global Land Cover product (MCD12Q1). NDVI trends were overwhelmingly negative across the grain belt with statistically significant (p⩽0.05) positive trends covering only 1% of the land surface. LCC was dominated by transitions between three classes; cropland, grassland, and a mixed cropland/natural vegetation mosaic. Combining our analyses of NDVI trends and LCC, we found a pattern of agricultural abandonment (cropland to grassland) in the southern range of the grain belt coinciding with statistically significant (p⩽0.05) negative NDVI trends and likely driven by regional drought. In the northern range of the grain belt we found an opposite tendency toward agricultural intensification; in this case, represented by LCC from cropland mosaic to pure cropland, and also associated with statistically significant (p⩽0.05) negative NDVI trends. Relatively small clusters of statistically significant (p⩽0.05) positive NDVI trends corresponding with both localized land abandonment and localized agricultural intensification show that land use decision making is not uniform across the region. Land surface change in the Northern Eurasian grain belt is part of a larger pattern of land cover land use change (LCLUC) in Eastern Europe, Russia, and former territories of the Soviet Union following realignment of socialist land tenure and agricultural markets. Here, we show that a combined analysis of LCC and NDVI trends provides a more complete picture of the complexities of LCLUC in the Northern Eurasian grain belt, involving both broader climatic forcing, and narrower anthropogenic impacts, than might be obtained from either analysis alone.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, South Dakota, 57007, USA

    Christopher K. Wright & Geoffrey M. Henebry

  2. Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA

    Kirsten M. de Beurs

Authors
  1. Christopher K. Wright
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  2. Kirsten M. de Beurs
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  3. Geoffrey M. Henebry
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Correspondence to Christopher K. Wright.

Additional information

Christopher K. Wright earned both an M.S. in agronomy (1993) and a Ph.D. in biological sciences (2003) from Montana State University in Bozeman, Montana, USA. He is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence in Brookings, South Dakota, USA. Previously, he was a National Research Council Postdoctoral Associate at the U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. His research interests include landscape ecology, macrosystems biology, and ecological remote sensing. Dr. Wright is a member of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the US Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology (US-IALE).

Kirsten M. de Beurs earned a MSc. (2000) in agricultural system science from Wageningen University in the Netherlands and a Ph.D. (2005) in natural resource sciences from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. She is an assistant professor in the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at The University of Oklahoma in Norman, Oklahoma, USA. She previously was an assistant professor at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (2007–2010) and a Postdoc at the University of Wisconsin and South Dakota State University. She is an author on over twenty five peer-reviewed publications involving the analysis of long image time series. She is interested in the effect of both human and climate on the global vegetated land surface. Dr. de Beurs is a member of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and the US Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology (US-IALE).

Geoffrey M. Henebry earned his M.S. and Ph.D. in environmental sciences from The University of Texas at Dallas in 1986 and 1989, respectively. He is a Senior Scientist and Interim Co-Director at the Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence and Professor in the Department of Natural Resource Management at South Dakota State University in Brookings, South Dakota, USA. He previously held positions at University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Rutgers-Newark, and Kansas State University. His research interests include land dynamics, land surface phenology, ecological remote sensing, and grasslands ecology. Prof. Henebry is an active member of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the US Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology (US-IALE), and the Ecological Society of America (ESA). He currently serves on the editorial boards of BioScience and Landscape Ecology.

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Wright, C.K., de Beurs, K.M. & Henebry, G.M. Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian grain belt. Front. Earth Sci. 6, 177–187 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x

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