Skip to main content
Log in

Grain production trends in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: New opportunities in an increasingly unstable world?

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Frontiers of Earth Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Grain production in the countries of the former USSR sharply declined during the past two decades and has only recently started to recover. In the context of the current economic and food-price crisis, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan might be presented with a window of opportunity to reemerge on the global agricultural market, if they succeed in increasing their productivity. The future of their agriculture, however, is highly sensitive to a combination of internal and external factors, such as institutional changes, land-use changes, climate variability and change, and global economic trends. The future of this region’s grain production is likely to have a significant impact on the global and regional food security over the next decades.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alcamo J, Dronin N, Endejan M, Golubev G, Kirilenko A (2007). A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Glob Environ Change, 17(3–4): 429–444

    Google Scholar 

  • Almaganbetov N (2005). The impact of land reforms on economic development of Kazakhstan. The Center for Policy Studies, Central European University/Open Society Institute, Budapest

    Google Scholar 

  • Baydildina A, Akshinbay A, Bayetova M, Mkrytichyan L, Haliepesova A, Ataev D (2000). Agricultural policy reforms and food security in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Food Policy, 25(6): 733–747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bokusheva R, Hockmann H (2005). Production risk and technical inefficiency in Russian agriculture. Eur Rev Agric Econ, 33(1): 93–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castells M (1999). End of Millenium. Malden: Blackwell

    Google Scholar 

  • de Beurs K M, Henebry G M (2004). Land surface phenology, climatic variation, and institutional change: analyzing agricultural land cover change in Kazakhstan. Remote Sens Environ, 89(4): 497–509

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • de Beurs K M, Wright C K, Henebry G M (2009). Dual scale trend analysis distinguishes climatic from anthropogenic effects on the vegetated land surface. Environ Res Lett, 4(4): 045012

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dronin N, Kirilenko A (2008). Climate change and food stress in Russia: what if the market transforms as it did during the past century. Clim Change, 86(1–2): 123–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dudwik N, Fock K (2007). Land Reform and Farm Restructuring in Transition Countries: the Experience of Bulgaria, Moldova, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications

    Google Scholar 

  • EBRD-FAO (2008). Grain production and export potential in CIS countries. Fighting food inflation through sustainable investment. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development/Food and Agriculture Organization, London, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • FAOSTAT (2009). Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics. http://www.fao.faostat.org, Accessed December 2009

  • Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005). Socioeconomic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Phil Trans Royal Soc B, 360, 2067–2073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H (2002). Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Vienna, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • IKAR (2010). Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. http://www.ikar.ru/eng/. Accessed January 2010

  • IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. In: Metz B, Davidson O R, Bosch P R, Dave R, Meyer L A, eds. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press

    Google Scholar 

  • Koester U, Brümmer B (2006). Institutional changes for agricultural and rural development in the CEEC and CIS region. Electronic Journal for Agricultural and Development Economics, 2(2): 144–179

    Google Scholar 

  • Koester U, Striewe L (1998). Huge potential, huge losses — The search for ways out of the dilemma of Ukrainian agriculture. In: Siedenberg A, Hoffmann L, eds. Ukraine at the Crossroads: Economic Reforms in International Perspective. Heidelberg/New York: Physica-Verlag, 259–270

    Google Scholar 

  • Kovalskyy V, Henebry G M (2009). Change and persistence in land surface phenologies of the Don and Dnieper River basins. Environ Res Lett, 4(4): 045018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leichenko R M, O’Brien K L (2002). The dynamics of rural vulnerability to global change: the case of southern Africa. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Climate Change, 7(1): 1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lerman Z, Csaki C, Feder G (2004). Agriculture in Transition: Land Policies and Evolving Farm Structures in Post-Soviet Countries. Lanham: Lexington Books

    Google Scholar 

  • Lerman Z, Sedik D, Pugachev N, Goncharuk A (2007). Rethinking agricultural reform in Ukraine. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, IAMO, Vol. 38, Halle, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  • Liefert W M, Liefert O, Serova E (2009). Russia’s Transition to Major Player in World Agricultural Markets. Choices, 24(2):47–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Lioubimtseva E (2010). Global food security and grain production trends in Central Eurasia: do models predict a new window of opportunity? National Social Science Journal, 41(1): 154–165

    Google Scholar 

  • Lioubimtseva E, Henebry G M (2009a). Potential impact of climate change on the grain productivity in Central Eurasia: human vulnerability and adaptations. In: Global Changes: Vulnerability, Mitigation, and Adaptation. Sofia: Sofia University St. Kliment Ohridski University Press, 22–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Lioubimtseva E, Henebry G M (2009b). Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. J Arid Environ, 73(11): 963–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lissitsa A, Odening M (2005). Efficiency and total factor productivity in Ukrainian agriculture in transition. Agric Econ, 32(3): 311–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long S P, Ainsworth E A, Leakey A D B, Nösberger J, Ort D R (2006). Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science, 312(5782): 1918–1921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macey D A J, Pyle W, Wegren S K (2004). Building Market Institutions in Post-Communist Agriculture: Land, Credit, and Assistance. Lanham: Lexington Books

    Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Morrison W, Schlesinger M E, Andronova N G (2000). Country-specific market impact of climate change. Clim Change, 45(3–4): 553–569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meng E, Longmire J, Moldashev A (2000). Kazakhstan’s wheat system: priorities, constraints, and future prospects. Food Policy, 25(6): 701–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Muratova N, Terekhov A (2005). Estimation of spring crops sowing calendar dates using MODIS in Northern Kazakhstan. IEEE, 5: 4019–4020

    Google Scholar 

  • OECD-FAO (2008). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008–2017. Paris: OECD Publishing, 230

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Osborne S, Trueblood M A (2002). Agricultural productivity and efficiency in Russia and Ukraine: building on a decade of reform. Market and Trade Economics Division, Economics Research Services, USDA, Agricultural Economics Report No. 813

  • Parry M L, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore V, Fischer G (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change, 14(1): 53–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pegov S A, Khomyakov D M, Khomyakov P M (2000). Global change impacts on the socio-economc situation in Russia. In: Kotlyakov VM, ed. Global and Regional Climate Change and Its Environmental and Socio-economic Impacts. Geos, Moscow, 60–69 (in Russian)

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmidhuber J, Tubiello F N (2007). Climate change and food security special feature: global food security under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104(50): 19703–19708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sedik D (2004). Missing pillars: the failures of rural finance in Ukraine. In: Macey D A J, Pyle W, Wegren S K, eds. Building Market Institutions in Post-Communist Agriculture: Land, Credit, and Assistance. Lanham: Lexington Books, 89–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Sedik D, Trueblood M, Arnade C (1999). Corporate farm performance in Russia, 1991–1995: an Efficiency Analysis. J Comp Econ, 27(3): 514–533

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serova E V (2000) Russia’s agro-food sector: state of the art. In: Wehrheim P, Frohberg K, Serova E, Von Braun J, eds. Russia’s Agrofood Sector: Towards Truly Functioning Markets. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 81–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster J M, Meehl G A (2006). Going to the extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events. Clim Change, 79(3–4): 185–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • USDA (2009). Global Crop Production Review. USDA’s Joint Agricultural Weather Facility. http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/. Accessed December 2009

  • USDA FAS (2010). USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. http://www.fas.usda.gov/. Acessed March 2010

  • Uzun V (2005). Large and small business in Russian agriculture: adaptation to market. Comp Econ Stud, 47(1): 85–100

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wehrheim P, Wiesmann D (2006). Food security analysis and policies for transition countries. Electronic Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics, 3(2): 112–143

    Google Scholar 

  • WHO (2009). Wold Health Organization Databases. http://www.who.org. Accessed April 2009

  • World Bank (2009). The World Bank Data. http://www.worldbank.org. Accessed April 2009

  • Wigley T M L (2008). Magicc/Scengen 5.3: User Manual (Version 2). NCAR, Boulder, CO, September 2008, http://ncar.ucar.edu/

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright C K, de Beurs K M, Henebry G M (2012). Combined analysis of land cover change and NDVI trends in the Northern Eurasian wheat belt. Frontier of Earth Science, 6(2), DOI: 10.1007/s11707-012-0327-x

  • Zhang B (1997). Total factor productivity of grain production in the former Soviet Union. J Comp Econ, 24(2): 202–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Elena Lioubimtseva.

Additional information

Elena Lioubimtseva completed Ph.D. in environmental geography at Moscow State University, Russia, in 1994. She conducted research at School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University, UK, and School of Agricultural Sciences, University of Louvain, Belgium. Since 2000 she has been teaching at Grand Valley State University in Michigan, United States, where she holds a position of an Associate Professor of Geography and Planning and Director of Environmental Studies Program. Her research interests include human vulnerability and adaptations to climate change, landscape ecology, and land-use and landcover changes in Central Eurasia. Dr. Lioubimtseva is a member of the Association of American Geographers, Association for Environmental Studies and Science, and Central Eurasian Studies Society. She is an author of more than 40 articles and book chapters. Her recent articles include Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations, Journal of Arid Environments, and Russia’s role in the post-2012 climate change policy: key contradictions and uncertainties, Forum on Public Policy.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lioubimtseva, E., Henebry, G.M. Grain production trends in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: New opportunities in an increasingly unstable world?. Front. Earth Sci. 6, 157–166 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0318-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-012-0318-y

Keywords

Navigation