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Hybrid Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy FTA and Fuzzy AHP in a Process Industry

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Abstract

There are many available techniques which are widely used for failure probability analysis. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a well-known method to identify the basic events (BEs) to reach top event. However, the FTA method in real circumstances is limited because of the many unknown and the vagueness of the situations. Thus, fuzzy set theory with respect to subjective expert opinion is employed to cope with the uncertain knowledge of BEs including randomness, ignorance, and shortages of data. In addition, to gain this purpose, much subjectivity may appear; as an example, the main one is the expert weighting. This study highlights the utility of fuzzy set theory and analytic hierarchy process to failure probability analysis in a case study. A chemical process plant has been selected to illustrate the application of proposed model with a comparison of the results with conventional model.

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Acknowledgments

The author sincerely thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insights and helpful comments and suggestions which are very helpful in improving the quality of the paper.

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  1. Department of Industrial Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Famagusta, North Cyprus, Turkey

    Mohammad Yazdi

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  1. Mohammad Yazdi
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Yazdi, M. Hybrid Probabilistic Risk Assessment Using Fuzzy FTA and Fuzzy AHP in a Process Industry. J Fail. Anal. and Preven. 17, 756–764 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-017-0305-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11668-017-0305-4

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