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Predicting landslide scenes under potential earthquake scenarios in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China

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Abstract

Earthquake-induced landslides can seriously aggravate the earthquake’s destructive consequences and have caused widespread concern in recent decades. The Xianshuihe fault is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, where the frequent strong earthquakes have brought abundant geo-hazards. This study focuses mainly on exploring and predicting the landslide scenes induced by the potential earthquakes. Firstly, the sophisticated Newmark model is improved through landslide cases induced by the Ms7.9 Luhuo earthquake in 1973 to adapt the field seismotectonics of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Then, it is used to predict the landslide scenes under one speculated potential earthquake scenario with the similar focal mechanism with the Luhuo earthquake. The preliminary results show that the slope displacement resulted from Newmark model can reflect spatial distribution characteristics of earthquake-induced landslides. The predicted potential earthquake-induced landslide scenes present an obvious extending trend along the Xianshuihe fault. The landslide hazard is greater in the northeast regions than southwest regions of the Xianshuihe fault, where there are more complex topographic conditions. The study procedure will be a helpful demonstration for exploration and prediction of landslide scenes under potential earthquakes in the regions with high seismic activity.

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Acknowledgments

This research was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41502313) and the Project of China Geological Survey (Grant No. 12120113038000, DD20160271). The authors are grateful to anonymous reviewers and editors for providing useful comments and suggestions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. China Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yong-shuang Zhang

  2. Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Yong-shuang Zhang, Zhi-hua Yang, Chang-bao Guo, Tao Wang & Guo-liang Du

  3. Chengdu Center, China Geological Survey, Chengdu, 610081, China

    Dong-hui Wang

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  1. Yong-shuang Zhang
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  2. Zhi-hua Yang
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Correspondence to Zhi-hua Yang.

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Zhang, Ys., Yang, Zh., Guo, Cb. et al. Predicting landslide scenes under potential earthquake scenarios in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China. J. Mt. Sci. 14, 1262–1278 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4363-6

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