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Probabilistic properties of a curve number: A case study for small Polish and Slovak Carpathian Basins

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Abstract

The proper determination of the curve number (CN) in the SCS-CN method reduces errors in predicting runoff volume. In this paper the variability of CN was studied for 5 Slovak and 5 Polish Carpathian catchments. Empirical curve numbers were applied to the distribution fitting. Next, theoretical characteristics of CN were estimated. For 100-CN the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as the best fit in most of the catchments. An assessment of the differences between the characteristics estimated from theoretical distributions and the tabulated values of CN was performed. The comparison between the antecedent runoff conditions (ARC) of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt was also completed. The analysis was done for various magnitudes of rainfall. Confidence intervals (CI) were helpful in this evaluation. The studies revealed discordances between the tabulated and estimated CNs. The tabulated CNs were usually lower than estimated values; therefore, an application of the median value and the probabilistic ARC of Hjelmfelt for wet runoff conditions is advisable. For dry conditions the ARC of Hjelmfelt usually better estimated CN than ARC of Hawkins did, but in several catchments neither the ARC of Hawkins nor Hjelmfelt sufficiently depicted the variability in CN.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Agriculture, Balicka 253C, Cracow, 30-198, Poland

    Agnieszka Rutkowska

  2. Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Slovak University of Technology, Radlinskeho 11, 810 05, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

    Silvia Kohnová, Ján Szolgay & Beata Karabová

  3. Department of River Engineering, Sedimentation Lab, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 166, Warsaw, 02-787, Poland

    Kazimierz Banasik

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  1. Agnieszka Rutkowska
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  2. Silvia Kohnová
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  3. Kazimierz Banasik
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  4. Ján Szolgay
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  5. Beata Karabová
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Correspondence to Agnieszka Rutkowska.

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Rutkowska, A., Kohnová, S., Banasik, K. et al. Probabilistic properties of a curve number: A case study for small Polish and Slovak Carpathian Basins. J. Mt. Sci. 12, 533–548 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3123-0

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