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A dynamic forecasting model for nursing manpower requirements in the medical service industry

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Abstract

Today there is an increasing demand for quality health care throughout the world. Such demand requires the medical service industry to equip with high technologies and high caliber professionals (e.g., doctors and nurses), to contain cost and improve quality of care. Since the medical service industry constantly suffers from the shortage of nursing manpower, forecasting the supply and demand of nursing manpower is an important issue. This study proposes a forecasting model for nursing manpower requirement using system dynamics. Data were collected from authorized institutions in Korea and were used as inputs of the model. The results show that the demand for nursing manpower exceeded the supply during the forecasting period (2006–2020), which requires both national and the medical service industry attention for sustained quality health care.

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Acknowledgment

This research was financially supported by Hansung University in 2009.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Management, Hansung University, Seoul, Korea

    Soong Hwan Chung

  2. Department of Health Administration, Namseoul University, Cheonan, Korea

    Doo Chae Jung

  3. College of Business Administration, Savannah State University, Savannah, USA

    Seong No Yoon

  4. Department of Management, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, USA

    DonHee Lee

Authors
  1. Soong Hwan Chung
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  2. Doo Chae Jung
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  3. Seong No Yoon
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  4. DonHee Lee
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Correspondence to DonHee Lee.

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Chung, S.H., Jung, D.C., Yoon, S.N. et al. A dynamic forecasting model for nursing manpower requirements in the medical service industry. Serv Bus 4, 225–236 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11628-009-0092-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11628-009-0092-4

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