Abstract
This report summarizes the results of two studies of electricity supply for Europe (EU), the Middle East (ME) and North Africa (NA) up to the year 2050. It shows that a transition to competitive, secure and sustainable supply of electricity and water is possible using renewable energy sources, efficiency gains and fossil fuel backup for balancing power. A strong cooperation between the EU and MENA for the market introduction of renewable energy and the interconnection of the electricity grids by high-voltage direct-current transmission are keys to the success and survival of the whole region. However, the necessary measures will take at least two decades to become effective. Therefore, adequate policy and economic frameworks for their realization must be introduced immediately. The importance of sustainable energy for the security of freshwater supplies in MENA is also described.
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Notes
Reference solar irradiance 2,400 kWh/m2 year, 1,600 kWh heating value per barrel.
Lake Nasser has a surface of 6,000 km2, Middle East oil production is currently 9 × 109 barrels/year.
A progress ratio of 90% means that the specific investment is reduced by 10% every time the total installed capacity of the solar collectors is doubled (Neij et al. 2003, Pitz-Paal et al. 2005).
Electricity cost is calculated with specific investment and operating hours varying due to the increased use of thermal storage capacity and progressive cost reduction of collectors and storage from US$3,550/kW, 3,900 h/year in 2010 to US$3,300/kW, 7,900 h/year in 2050, operating cost is estimated 3% of investment per year, efficiency 15%, project rate of return 6.5%/year equivalent to a fixed charge rate (annuity) of 8.2%/year, economic life 25 years.
Electricity price escalation from 1996 to 2005 in Jordan of 1.8%/year is assumed to remain at that level also in the future, http://www.nepco.com.jo/english_etariff.html.
Assuming a typical conventional power plant efficiency of 33%.
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Acknowledgments
The authors thank the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety for the financial support of the studies described here and for its leading role in renewable energy dissemination world-wide. Special thanks to the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation and Dr. Gerhard Knies, and to the study team Dr. Christoph Schillings, Stefan Kronshage, Dr. Peter Viebahn, Nadine May and Christian Paul from DLR, Stuttgart, Germany, Dr. Uwe Klann, Stuttgart, Germany, Eng. Malek Kabariti and Ammar Taher from National Energy Research Center, Amman, Jordan, Prof. Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna from Centre National Pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique, Rabbat, Morocco, Dr. Hani Nokraschy from Nokraschy Engineering, Holm, Germany, Eng. Samir Hassan and Laila Georgy Yussef from New and Renewable Energy Authority, Cairo, Egypt, Tewfik Hasni from New Energy Algeria, Algiers, Dr. Nasir El-Bassam from Internationales Forschungszentrum für Erneuerbare Energien, Sievershausen, Germany, and Honorat Satoguina, Hamburger Weltwirtschaftsarchiv, Hamburg, Germany.
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Trieb, F., Müller-Steinhagen, H. Europe–Middle East–North Africa cooperation for sustainable electricity and water. Sustain Sci 2, 205–219 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-007-0025-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-007-0025-x