Abstract
Environmental changes have led to a growing conflict between water supply and demand in Qinjiang River. This paper used the data of monthly rainfall, runoff, evaporation and air temperature during the period from 1956 to 2016 and combined 3-year running mean, linear regression method, Mann–Kendall test and R/S analysis method to analyze the change trend of each factor, combined Mann–Kendall test, cumulative anomaly method and slide t test to analyze the variation of each factor and combined Morlet continuous wavelet analysis to identify periodic oscillations. In this paper, the influences of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the Qinjiang River were qualitatively assessed from the aspects of trend, variation and periodicity and the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff reduction were quantitatively assessed using evaporation difference method and an improved comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ).The following results were obtained: (1) From 1956 to 2016, the rainfall showed a weak increasing trend, whereas the runoff depth and the evaporation exhibited significant decreasing trend and the air temperature exhibited a significant increasing trend. The rainfall and air temperature will continuously increase, whereas runoff and evaporation will continuously decrease in the future. (2) Rainfall exhibited no significant variation, whereas there were two variation points (1986 and 2003) in the runoff, three variation points (1974, 1986 and 2011) in evaporation and one variation point (1996) in air temperature. (3) Features of rainfall exhibited similarities to periodic changes in runoff, whereas rainfall exhibited significant difference with evaporation and air temperature. (4) Human activities contributed mainly to the runoff reduction. The contribution of human activities to runoff reduction increased from 43.78 to 61.17% in BR period (1983–2003) and increased from 61.17 to 72.66% in CR period (2004–2016). This indicated that the contribution of human activities to runoff reduction increased continuously. The impact of human activities on the reduction in runoff in the Qinjiang River Basin is mainly due to the irrigation, industrial and urban residents’ water use, which is caused by the growth of population and the growth of economic index.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Afifi AA, Azen SP (1972) Statistical analysis—a computer oriented approach. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Publishers, New York, p 366
Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future change in climate and the hydrologic cycle. Nature 419(6903):224–232. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1353
Amin MZM, Shaaban AJ, Ercan A, Ishida K, Kavvas ML, Chen ZQ, Jang S (2017) Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model. Sci Total Environ 575:12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.009
Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Hidalgo HG, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Das T, Bala G, Wood AW, Nozawa T, Mirin AA, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science 319(5866):1080–1083. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1152538
Beniston M (2002) Climatic change: implications for the hydrological cycle and for water management. Adv Glob Change Res 10(2):194–198. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47983-4
Buendia C, Batalla RJ, Sabater S, Palau A, Marcé R (2016) Runoff trends driven by climate and afforestation in a Pyrenean basin. Land Degrad Dev 27(3):823–838. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2384
Chen LH, Wang Y, Yi K, Lai HT (2016) Analysis of Rainfall and River Runoff change Tendency in Qinzhou City. J Chin Hydrol 36(6):89–96. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2016.06.015
Christopher T, Webster PJ (1998) The annual cycle of persistence in the El Nño/Southern oscillation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 124(550):1985–2004. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49712455010
Chu JT, Xia J, Xu CY (2008) Statistical downscaling the daily precipitation in Haihe River basin under the climate change. J Nat Resour 23(6):1068–1077. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2008.06.011
Coulibaly P (2006) Spatial and temporal variability of Canadian seasonal precipitation (1900–2000). Adv Water Resour 29(12):1846–1865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.12.013
Ding YH, Ren GY, Shi GY, Gong P, Zheng XH, Zhai PM, Zhang DE, Zhao ZC, Wang SW, Wang HJ, Luo Y, Chen DL, Gao XJ, Dai XS (2006) National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): climate change in China and its future trend. Adv Clim Change Res 2(1):3–8. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2007.z1.001
Fan Y, Li J, Zhong YJ, Yang BH, Guo KY (2008) Analysis on change trend of precipitation in Yunnan dry-hot valley region based on rescaled range analysis method. Water Resour Power 26(2):24–27 (in Chinese)
Farenhorst A, Li R, Jahan M, Tun HM, Mi R, Amarakoon I, Kumar A, Khafipour E (2016) Bacteria in drinking water sources of a first nation reserve in Canada. Sci Total Environ 575:813–819. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.138
Feller W (1951) The asymptotic distribution of the range of sums of independent random variables. Ann Math Stat 22(3):427–432. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729589
Fu CB, Wang Q (1992) The definition and detection of abrupt climate change. Chin J Atmos Sci 16(4):482–493. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1992.04.11
Fu CB, Diaz HF, Dong DF, Fletcher JO (1999) Changes in atmospheric circulation over Northern Hemisphere Oceans associated with the rapid warming of the 1920s. Int J Climatol 19(6):581–606. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199905)19:6%3c581:AID-JOC396%3e3.0.CO;2-P
Fu GB, Chen SL, Liu CM, Shepard D (2004) Hydro-climatic trends of the Yellow River basin for the last 50 years. Clim Change 65(1):149–178. https://doi.org/10.1023/b:clim.0000037491.95395.bb
Fu GB, Charles SP, Chiew FHS (2007) A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow. Water Resour Res 43(11):2578–2584. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007WR005890
Gao ZY, Niu FJ, Wang YB, Luo J, Lin ZJ (2017) Impact of a thermokarst lake on the soil hydrological properties in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Sci Total Environ 574:751–759. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.108
Griffioen J (2017) Enhanced weathering of olivine in seawater: the efficiency as revealed by thermodynamic scenario analysis. Sci Total Environ 575:536–544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.008
Guo Y, Li ZJ, Amo-Boateng M, Deng P, Huang PN (2014) Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff change for the upper reaches of Weihe River. Stoch Env Res Risk A 28(2):333–346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0752-8
Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic date: the Mann–Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349(S3–4):350–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.009
Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204(S1–4):182–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
He XQ, Zhang B, Sun LW (2012) Contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff in upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin. Chin J Ecol 31(11):2884–2890. https://doi.org/10.13292/j.1000-4890.2012.0474
He RM, Zhang JY, Bao ZX (2015) Response of runoff to climate change in the Haihe River basin. Adv Water Sci 26(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2015.01.001
Hsu KC, Li ST (2010) Clustering spatial-temporal precipitation data using wavelet transform and self-organizing map neural network. Adv Water Resour 33(2):190–200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.11.005
Hu SS, Liu CM, Zheng HX, Wang ZG, Yue JJ (2012) Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water’ source area of Baiyangdian Lake. J Geogr Sci 22(5):895–905. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9
Huang SZ, Chang JX, Huang Q, Chen YT, Leng GY (2016) Quantifying the relative contribution of climate and human impacts on runoff change based on the Budyko hypothesis and SVM model. Water Resour Manag 30(7):2377–2390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1286-x
Hurst HE (1951) Long term storage capacity of reservoirs. Reston Trans Am Soc Civil Eng 116(12):776–808. https://doi.org/10.1234/12345678
Hurst HE, Black RP, Simaika YM (1956) Long-term storage: an experimental study. Constable, London. https://doi.org/10.2307/2982267
Jin DL, Yang SC (1981) The method of calculating soil evaporation by ordinary meteorological data. Yangtze River 4:47–52 (in Chinese)
Jones RN, Chiew FHS, Boughton WC (2006) Estimating the sensitivity of mean annual runoff to climate change using selected hydrological models. Adv Water Resour 29(10):1419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.11.001
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation measures. Charles Griffin, London, p 202
Kong DX, Miao CY, Wu JW, Duan QY (2016) Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on net runoff in the Yellow River watershed from 1951 to 2012. Ecol Eng 91:566–573. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.02.023
Labat D (2005) Recent advances in wavelet analyses: part 1. A review of concepts. J Hydrol 314(1–4):275–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.04.003
Legesse D, Vallet CC, Gasse F (2003) Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia. J Hydrol 275(1–2):67–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1694(03)00019-2
Li Y, Yang WY (2016) The evolutionary trend of the runoff and the water challenge faced by agriculture in the three outlets area of Dongting lake. Chin Rural Water Hydropower 11:86–92. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1007-2284.2016.11.021
Li JZ, Zhou SH (2016) Quantifying the contribution of climate- and human-induced runoff decrease in the Luanhe River basin, China. J Water Clim Change 7(2):430–442. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2015.041
Li L, Wang QC, Zhang GS, Fu Y, Yan LD (2004) The influence of climate change on surface water in the upper Yellow River. J Geogr Sci 59(5):716–722. https://doi.org/10.11821/xb200405009
Liang LQ, Li LJ, Liu Q (2011) Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008. J Hydrol 404(1–2):67–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.020
Ling LC, Zhang LP, Xia J (2014) Quantitative assessment of impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in the typical basic of the middle route of the south-to-north water transfer project. Adv Clim Change Res 10(2):118–126. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.02.006
Liu MX, Xu XL, Sun AY, Wang KL, Liu W, Zhang XY (2014) Is southwestern China experiencing more frequent precipitation extremes? Environ Res Lett 9(6):1–14. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/064002
Luo KS, Tao FL, Moiwo JP, Xiao DP (2016) Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades. Sci Rep UK 6:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep33704
Mandelbrot BB, Wallis JR (1969) Robustness of the rescaled range R/S in the measurement of noncyclic long run statistical dependence. Water Resour Res 5(5):967–988. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i005p00967
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13(3):245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Marcos R, Llasat MC, Quintana-Seguí P, Turco M (2017) Seasonal predictability of water resources in a Mediterranean freshwater reservoir and assessment of its utility for end-users. Sci Total Environ 575:681–691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.09.080
Meresa HK, Romanowicz RJ, Napiorkowski JJ (2017) Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments. Acta Geophys 65(4):829–848. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-017-0062-5
Millan MM (2014) Extreme hydro meteorological events and climate change predictions in Europe. J Hydrol 518(Part B):206–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.041
Morlet J, Arens G, Fourgeau E, Giard D (1982) Wave propagation and sampling theory—part I: complex signal and scattering in multilayered media. Geophysics 47(2):203–221. https://doi.org/10.1190/1.1441328
Niu JY, Wu ZN, Jia H (2016) Quantitative assessment for impacts of precipitation change and runoff-yield change on Fenhe River runoff. J Jilin Univ Earth Sci Ed 46(3):814–823. https://doi.org/10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.201603203
Ohmura A, Wild M (2002) Is the hydrological cycle accelerating? Science 298(5597):1345–1346. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1078972
Peterson TC, Golubev VS, Groisman PY (1995) Evaporation losing its strength. Nature 337:687–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/377687b0
Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, Zhou L, Liu H, Ma Y, Ding Y, Friedlingstein P, Liu C, Tan K, Yu Y, Zhang T, Fang J (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467(7311):43–51. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09364
Pingale SM, Khare D, Jat MK, Adamowski J (2013) Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan. India Atmos Res 138:73–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.024
Qi TY, Zhang Q, Wang Y, Xiao MZ, Liu JY, Sun P (2015) Spatiotemporal patterns of pan evaporation in 1960–2005 in China: changing properties and possible causes. Sci Geogr Sin 35(12):1599–1606. https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2015.12.014
Ran LS, Wang SJ, Fan XL (2010) Channel change at Toudaoguai station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River. J Geogr Sci 20(2):231–247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-010-0231-9
Roderick ML, Farquhar GD (2002) The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years. Science 298(5597):1410–1411. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1075390
Romanowicz RJ, Bogdanowicz E, Debele SE, Doroszkiewicz J, Hisdal H, Lawrence D, Meresa HK, Napiórkowski JJ, Osuch M, Strupczewski WG, Wilson D, Wong WK (2016) Climate change impact on hydrological extremes: preliminary results from the Polish-Norwegian project. Acta Geophys 64(2):477–509. https://doi.org/10.1515/acgeo-2016-0009
Shuai H, Li JB, He X (2016) Feature detection and attribution analysis of runoff variation in the three outlets of Southern Jingjiang River under environmental changes. J Soil Water Conserv 30(1):83–88. https://doi.org/10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2016.01.017
Stocker TF, Raible CC (2005) Climate change: water cycle shifts gear. Nature 434(7035):830–833. https://doi.org/10.1038/434830a
Tongal H, Demirel MC, Booij MJ (2013) Seasonality of low flows and dominant processes in the Rhine River. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 27(2):489–503. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0594-9
Tongal H, Demirel MC, Moradkhani H (2017) Analysis of dam-induced cyclic patterns on river flow dynamics. Hydrol Sci J 62(4):626–641. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1252841
Torrence CG, Compo GP (1998) A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79(1):61–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)07960;0061:apgtwa62;2.0.co;2
Wang XL, Hu BQ, Xia J (2002) R/S analysis method of trend and aberrance point on hydrological time series. Eng J Wuhan Univ Eng Ed 35(2):10–12. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1671-8844.2002.02.003
Wang GQ, Zhang JY, He RM (2006) Impacts of environmental change on runoff in Fenhe river basin of the middle Yellow River. Adv Water Sci 17(6):853–858. https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:1001-6791.2006.06.017
Wang GS, Xia J, Chen J (2009) Quantification of effects of climate changes and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model: a case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China. Water Resour Res 45(7):206–216. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007wr006768
Wang SJ, Yan M, Yan YX, Shi CX, Li H (2012a) Contributions of climate change and human activities to the change in runoff increment in different sections of the Yellow River. Quatern Int 282(60):66–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2012.07.011
Wang SJ, Yan YX, Yan M, Zhao XK (2012b) Quantitative estimation of the impact of precipitation and human activities on runoff change of the Huangfuchuan River basin. J Geogr Sci 22(5):906–918. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0972-8
Wang SJ, Ling L, Cheng WM (2014) Changes of bank shift rates along the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River and their influencing factors. J Geogr Sci 24(4):703–716. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1114-2
Werner R (2008) The latitudinal ozone variability study using wavelet analysis. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 70(2–4):261–267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2007.08.022
Wu LH, Wang SJ, Bai XY, Luo WJ, Tian YC, Zeng C, Luo GJ, He SY (2017) Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed, SW China. Sci Total Environ 601:1449–1465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.288
Xia ZH, Liu M, Wang M (2014) Quantitative identification of the impact of climate change and human activity on runoff in Lake Honghu basin since 1990s. J Lake Sci 26(1):515–521. https://doi.org/10.18307/2014.0404
Xu JX (2011) Variation in annual runoff of the Wudinghe River as influenced by climate change and human activity. Quat Int 244(2):230–237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2010.09.014
Xu KH, Milliman JD, Xu H (2010) Temporal trend of precipitation and runoff in major Chinese Rivers since 1951. Glob Planet Change 73(3–4):219–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.07.002
Xu CY, Chen H, Guo SL (2013a) Hydrological modeling in a changing environment: issues and challenges. J Water Resour Res 2(2):85–95. https://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2013.22013
Xu XL, Liu W, Rafique R, Wang KL (2013b) Revisiting continental US hydrologic change in the latter half of the 20th century. Water Resour Manag 27(12):4337–4348. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0411-3
Xu XL, Scanlon BR, Schilling K, Sun A (2013c) Relative importance of climate and land surface change on hydrologic change in the US Midwest since the 1930s: implications for biofuel production. J Hydrol 497:110–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.05.041
Yu YS, Chen XW (2011) Study on the percentage of trend component in a hydrological time series based on Mann–Kendall method. J Nat Resour 26(9):1585–1591. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2011.09.014
Yuan YJ, Zhang C, Zeng GM, Liang J, Guo SL, Huang L, Wu HP, Hua SS (2016) Quantitative assessment of the contribution of climate variability and human activity to streamflow alteration in Dongting Lake, China. Hydrol Process 35(12):70–95. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10768
Zare M, Samani AAN, Mohammady M (2016) The impact of land use change on runoff generation in an urbanizing watershed in the north of Iran. Earth Sci 75(18):1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-6058-7
Zhan CS, Niu CW, Song XM, Xu CY (2013) The impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in Bai River watershed, Northern China. Hydrol Res 44(5):875–885. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.146
Zhang TF, Zhu XD, Wang YJ, Li HM, Liu CH (2014) The impact of climate variability and human activity on runoff changes in the Huangshui River Basin. Resour Sci 36(11):2256–2262 (in Chinese)
Zhang HB, Huang Q, Zhang Q, Gu L, Chen KY, Yu QJ (2016) Change in the long-term hydrological regimes and the impacts of human activities in the main Wei River, China. Hydrol Sci J 61(6):1054–1068. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1027708
Zhao GJ, Tian P, Mu XM, Jiao JY, Wang F, Gao P (2014) Quantifying the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin, China. J Hydrol 519(Part A):387–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.07.014
Zhao YF, Zou XQ, Gao JH, Xu XWH, Wang CL, Tang DH, Wang T, Wu XW (2015) Quantifying the anthropogenic and climatic contributions to change in water discharge and sediment load into the sea: a case study of the Yangtze River, China. Sci Total Environ 536:803–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.119
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC0405900), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51469002 and 51669003) and Guangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. AB16380284).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, L., Wang, Y., Touati, B. et al. Temporal characteristics detection and attribution analysis of hydrological time-series variation in the seagoing river of southern China under environmental change. Acta Geophys. 66, 1151–1170 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0198-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0198-y