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Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil

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Abstract

In the last two decades, urbanization has intensified, and in Brazil, about 90% of the population now lives in urban centers. Atmospheric patterns have changed owing to the high growth rate of cities, with negative consequences for public health. This research aims to elucidate the spatial patterns of air pollution and respiratory diseases. A data-based model to aid local urban management to improve public health policies concerning air pollution is described. An example of data preparation and multivariate analysis with inventories from different cities in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba was studied. A predictive model with outstanding accuracy in prediction of outbreaks was developed. Preliminary results describe relevant relations among morbidity scales, air pollution levels, and atmospheric seasonal patterns. The knowledge gathered here contributes to the debate on social issues and public policies. Moreover, the results of this smaller scale study can be extended to megacities.

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Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the CNPq by the financial support of the actual research and the institutes which provided the data: Environmental Institute of Paraná (IAP); State Health Secretary (SESA); Institute of Urban Planning of Curitiba (IPPUC); Mary´s Protection Center of Children and Teenagers (CEDIN). MCTI/CNPQ/Universal 14/2014 449558/2014-2

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate Program in Urban Management (PPGTU), Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

    Fabio Teodoro de Souza

  2. Polytechnic School & School of Architecture and Design, Rua Imaculada Conceição, 1155, Prado Velho, Po Box, 16210, Curitiba, Paraná, 80215-901, Brazil

    Fabio Teodoro de Souza

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Correspondence to Fabio Teodoro de Souza.

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de Souza, F.T. Morbidity Forecast in Cities: A Study of Urban Air Pollution and Respiratory Diseases in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba, Brazil. J Urban Health 96, 591–604 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-018-0271-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-018-0271-5

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