Abstract
The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) are interrelated but significantly different concepts. Relationships between the two indices may be that of causality or non-causality. The paper conducts a Granger-causality test on China’s CPI and PPI data for the period from January 2001 to August 2008, and finds that CPI Granger causes the change in PPI, and the latter reacts to the former with a time lag of 1–3 months. The result may suggest that in contemporary Chinese economy, demand-side factors have played a more important role than supply-side factors, although the two sides both have influences on domestic inflation trend which is measured by CPI.
摘要
居民消费物价指数(CPI)与生产者价格指数(PPI)是相互联系并有显著区别的概念, 两者之间的因果关系或非因果关系有多种可能情形。 对中国消费物价指数和工业品出厂价格指数 (PPI) 2001 年 1 月至 2008 年 8 月数据的格兰杰因果检验结果显示, 在所考察时期内, 消费物价指数是生产者价格指数变动的格兰杰原因, 后者经过 1–3 个月左右的时滞对前者的变动作出反应。 这个结果很可能意味着, 在所考察时期内, 在影响以居民消费物价指数 (CPI) 来衡量的国内通货膨胀中, 需求方面的因素相对大于供给方面的作用, 尽管需求因素和供给因素都共同地影响了中国通货膨胀的走势。
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Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (11): 16–26
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Fan, G., He, L. & Hu, J. CPI vs. PPI: Which drives which?. Front. Econ. China 4, 317–334 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-009-0018-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11459-009-0018-z