Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluating the reliability of global historical land use scenarios for forest data in China

  • Published:
Journal of Geographical Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Global historical land use scenarios are widely used to simulate the climatic and ecological effects of changes in land cover; however, reliability evaluation of these scenarios for data on China’s forests is missing. By using a historical document-derived Chinese forest dataset (CHFD) for the years 1700–2000, we evaluated the reliability of data on forests in China over three global scenarios—SAGE (Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment), PJ (Pongratz Julia), and KK10 (Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010)—through trend-related, quantitative, and spatial comparisons. The results show the following: (1) Although the area occupied by forests in China in the SAGE, PJ, KK10, and CHFD datasets decreased over the past 300 years, there were large differences between global scenarios and CHFD. The area occupied by forests in China in the SAGE scenario for 1700–1990 was 20%–40% more than that according to CHFD, and that occupied by forests in the KK10 from 1700 to 1850 was 32%–46% greater than that in CHFD. The difference between the PJ and CHFD was lower than 20% for most years. (2) Large differences were detected at the provincial and grid cell scales, where the PJ scenario was closer to CHFD in terms of total forested area. Provinces with large differences in terms of trend and quantity were 84% and 92% of all provinces, respectively. Grid cells with relative differences greater than 70% accounted for 60%–80% of all grids. (3) These global historical land use scenarios do not accurately reveal the spatiotemporal pattern of Chinese forests due to differences in the data sources, methods of reconstruction, and spatial scales.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Brovkin V, Sitch S, Wvon B et al., 2004. Role of land cover changes for atmospheric CO2 increase and climate change during the last 150 years. Global Change Biology, 10(8): 1253–1266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clawson M, 1979. Forests in the long sweep of American history. Science, 204(4398): 1168–1174.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darby H C, 1956. The clearing of the woodland in Europe//Thomas J W L. Man’s Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellis E C, Kaplan J O, Fuller D Q et al., 2013. Used planet: A global history. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(20): 7978–7985.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley J A, Defries R, Asner G P et al., 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734): 570–574.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He F N, Ge Q S, Dai J H et al., 2008. Forest change of China in recent 300 years. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 18(1): 59–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He F N, Li M J, Yang F, 2019. Main progress in historical land use and land cover change in China during the past 70 years. Journal of Chinese Historical Geography, 34(4): 5–16. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • He F N, Li S C, Yang F et al., 2018. Evaluating the accuracy of Chinese pasture data in global historical land use datasets. Science China Earth Sciences, 61(11): 1685–1696.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He F N, Li S C, Zhang X Z et al., 2013. Comparisons of cropland area from multiple datasets over the past 300 years in the traditional cultivated region of China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 23(6): 978–990.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He F N, Li S C, Zhang X Z, 2015. A spatially explicit reconstruction of forest cover in China over 1700–2000. Global and Planetary Change, 131: 73–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He F, Vavrus S J, Kutzbach J E et al., 2014. Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 623–631.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton R A, Hackler J L, 2003. Sources and sinks of carbon from land-use change in China. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 17(2): 1034. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GB001970.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • House J I, Prentice I C, Quéré C L, 2002. Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2. Global Change Biology, 8(11): 1047–1052.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hughes J D, Thirgood J V, 1982. Deforestation, erosion, and forest management in ancient Greece and Rome. Journal of Forest History, 26(2): 60–75.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan J O, Krumhardt K M, Gaillard M-J et al., 2017. Constraining the deforestation history of Europe: Evaluation of historical land use scenarios with pollen-based land cover reconstructions. Land, 6(4): 91. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/land6040091.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan J O, Krumhardt K M, Zimmermann N E, 2009. The prehistoric and preindustrial deforestation of Europe. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28(27/28): 3016–3034.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan J O, Krumhardt K M, Zimmermann N E, 2012. The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years. Global Change Biology, 18(3): 902–914.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan J O, Ruddiman W F, Crucifix M C et al., 2011. Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change. The Holocene, 21(5): 775–791.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein Goldewijk K, 2001. Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE Database. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15(2): 417–433.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klein Goldewijk K, Beusen A, Van Drecht G et al., 2011. The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20: 73–86.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li B B, Fang X Q, Ye Y et al., 2010. Accuracy assessment of global historical cropland datasets based on regional reconstructed historical data: A case study in Northeast China. Science China Earth Sciences, 53(11): 1689–1699.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li M J, He F N, Yang F et al., 2018. Reconstructing provincial cropland area in eastern China during the early Yuan Dynasty (AD1271–1294). Journal of Geographical Sciences, 28(12): 1994–2006.

    Google Scholar 

  • Li S C, Bing Z, Jin G, 2019a. Spatially explicit mapping of soil conservation service in monetary units due to land use/cover change for the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. Remote Sensing, 11(4): 468. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11040468.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li S C, He F N, Zhang X Z et al., 2019b. Evaluation of global historical land use scenarios based on regional datasets on the Qinghai-Tibet Area. Science of the Total Environment, 657: 1615–1628.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pongratz J, Reick C, Raddatz T et al., 2008. A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 22(3): GB3018. doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, 2012. Global cropland and pasture data from 1700–2007. Accessed from http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/∼nramankutty/Datasets/Datasets.html.

  • Ramankutty N, Foley J A, 1999. Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 13(4): 997–1027.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, Foley J A, 2010. ISLSCP II historical croplands cover, 1700–1992. In: Hall F G, Collatz G J, Meeson B et al. ISLSCP Initiative II Collection. Tennessee: Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, 1–20.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramankutty N, Foley J A, Norman J et al., 2002. The global distribution of cultivable lands: Current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 11(5): 377–392.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X L, Bao Y H, 1999. Study on the methods of land use dynamic change research. Progress in Geography, 18(1): 81–87. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Watson R T N I R, Bolin B et al., 2000. Land use, land-use change, and forestry//IPCC Special Report-Summary for Policymakers. IPCC.

  • Werf G R V D, Morton D C, Defries R S et al., 2009. CO2 emissions from forest loss. Nature Geoscience, 2(11): 737–738.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang F, He F N, Li S C et al., 2019. Exploring Spatiotemporal Pattern of Grassland Cover in Western China from 1661 to 1996. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(17): 3160. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang H Y Gao Z J, Shi M J et al., 2019. Study of the effects of land use on hydrochemistry and soil microbial diversity. Water, 11(3): 466. doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X Z, He F N, Li S C, 2013. Reconstructed cropland in the mid-eleventh century in the traditional agricultural area of China: Implications of comparisons among datasets. Regional Environmental Change, 13(5): 969–977.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu H Y, Li X B, 2003. Discussion on the index method of regional land use change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(5): 643–650. (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Fan Yang, Fanneng He & Meijiao Li

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Fan Yang & Meijiao Li

  3. School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Shicheng Li

Authors
  1. Fan Yang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Fanneng He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Meijiao Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Shicheng Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Fanneng He.

Additional information

Foundation: The National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2017YFA0603304; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41671149

Author: Yang Fan, PhD, specializing in historical land use/cover change.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Yang, F., He, F., Li, M. et al. Evaluating the reliability of global historical land use scenarios for forest data in China. J. Geogr. Sci. 30, 1083–1094 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1771-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1771-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation