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Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956–2010

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Abstract

Based on the daily runoff data from 20 hydrological stations above the Bengbu Sluice in the Huaihe River Basin during 1956–2010, run test, trend test and Mann-Kendall test are used to analyze the variation trend of annual maximum runoff series. The annual maximum series (AM) and peaks over threshold series (POT) are selected to describe the extreme distributions of generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Temporal and spatial variations of extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin are analyzed. The results show that during the period 1956–2010 in the Huaihe River Basin, annual maximum runoff at 10 stations have a decreasing trend, while the other 10 stations have an unobvious increasing trend. The maximum runoff events almost occurred in the flood period during the 1960s and 1970s. The extreme runoff events in the Huaihe River Basin mainly occurred in the mainstream of the Huaihe River, Huainan mountainous areas, and Funiu mountainous areas. Through Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, GEV and GPD distributions can be well fitted with AM and POT series respectively. Percentile value method, mean excess plot method and certain numbers of peaks over threshold method are used to select threshold, and it is found that percentile value method is the best of all for extreme runoff in the Huaihe River Basin.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101, China

    Jun Xia & Dunxian She

  2. State key laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Jun Xia, Hong Du & Sidong Zeng

  3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Dunxian She & Yongyong Zhang

  4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    Ziqi Yan

  5. College of Natural Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, 400716, China

    Yan Ye

  6. College of Water Resources and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China

    Yan Ye

Authors
  1. Jun Xia
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  2. Hong Du
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  3. Sidong Zeng
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  4. Dunxian She
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  5. Yongyong Zhang
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  6. Ziqi Yan
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  7. Yan Ye
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hong Du.

Additional information

Foundation: National Basic Research Program of China, No.2010CB428406; The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, No.20102060201000066

Author: Xia Jun (1954–), Professor, specialized in hydrology and water resources.

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Xia, J., Du, H., Zeng, S. et al. Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956–2010. J. Geogr. Sci. 22, 1045–1060 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0982-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0982-6

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