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Interval prediction of landslide displacement with dual-output least squares support vector machine and particle swarm optimization algorithms

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Abstract

For landslide displacement, interval predictions are generally more realistic and reliable compared with traditional point predictions. This paper presents a new interval prediction method for landslide displacement integrating dual-output least squares support vector machine (DO-LSSVM) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. In this new method, the PSO algorithm is employed to optimize coefficients of the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) model for obtaining point prediction results, and the interval prediction of the landslide displacement is made based on the dual-outputs obtained from the DO-LSSVM model. To assess the rationality of the predictions, three performance evaluation indicators, including the prediction interval coverage probability (PICP), normalized mean prediction interval width (NMPIW), and coverage width-based criterion (CWC), are established. Case studies of the Tanjiahe landslide and the Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir region are then used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in predicting the landslide displacement interval. The case study results demonstrate that this new method has the best overall performance compared with other existing methods, and this new method can provide accurate and reliable results for the medium- to long-term interval prediction of landslide displacement.

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Acknowledgements

The financial support provided by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42090055), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41977242), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) (No. CUGGC09) is acknowledged.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China

    Wenping Gong, Shan Tian, Zhibin Li, Huiming Tang & Tianzheng Li

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of the District of Columbia, Washington, DC, 20008, USA

    Lei Wang & Liang Zhang

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  1. Wenping Gong
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  2. Shan Tian
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  3. Lei Wang
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  5. Huiming Tang
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Correspondence to Lei Wang.

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Gong, W., Tian, S., Wang, L. et al. Interval prediction of landslide displacement with dual-output least squares support vector machine and particle swarm optimization algorithms. Acta Geotech. 17, 4013–4031 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11440-022-01455-2

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