Stochastic speed prediction for connected vehicles using improved bayesian networks with back propagation

Abstract

Advanced vehicular control technologies rely on accurate speed prediction to make ecological and safe decisions. This paper proposes a novel stochastic speed prediction method for connected vehicles by incorporating a Bayesian network (BN) and a Back Propagation (BP) neural network. A BN model is first designed for predicting the stochastic vehicular speed in a priori. To improve the accuracy of the BN-based speed prediction, a BP-based predicted speed error compensation module is constructed by formulating a mapping between the predicted speed and whose corresponding prediction error. In the end, a filtering algorithm is developed to smoothen the compensated stochastic vehicular speed. To validate the workings of the proposed approaches in experiments, two typical scenarios are considered: one predecessor vehicle in a double-vehicle scenario and two predecessor vehicles in a multi-vehicle scenario. Simulation results under the considered scenarios demonstrate that the proposed BN-BP fusion method outperforms the BN-based method with respect to the root mean square error, standardized residuals, R-squared, and the online prediction time of proposed fusion prediction can satisfy a real-time application requirement. The main highlighted contributions of this article are threefold: (1) We put forward an improved BN method, which is combined with a BP neural network, to construct a stochastic vehicular speed prediction method under connected driving; (2) different from existing methods, a unique interconnected framework that consists of a stochastic vehicular speed prediction module, a compensation module, and a speed smoothing module is proposed; (3) extensive simulation studies based on a set of evaluation metrics are illustrated to reveal the advantages and merits of the proposed approaches.