Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability

  • Published:
Science in China Series E: Technological Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

For many dam projects in China, the 50-year designed life time is coming to an end. It is urgent to study the theory and method to evaluate the dam service life. In this paper, firstly, the probability theory of fuzzy event and time-varying effect theory are used to analyze the time-variety of various risk factors in the process of dam operations. A method is proposed to quantify the above time-variety and a model to describe the fuzzy time-varying risk probability for the dam structure is also built. Secondly, the information entropy theory is used to analyze the uncertain degree relationship between the characteristic value of membership function and fuzzy risk probability, and a mathematical method is presented to calculate the time-varying risk probability accordingly. Thirdly, the relation mode between time-varying risk probability and service life is discussed. Based on this relation mode and the acceptable risk probability of dams in China, a method is put forward to evaluate and forecast the dam service life. Finally, the proposed theory and method are used to analyze one concrete dam. The dynamic variability and mutation feature of the dam risk probability are analyzed. The remaining service life of this dam is forecasted. The obtained results can provide technology support for the project management department to make treatment measures of engineering and reasonably arrange reinforce cost. The principles in this paper have wide applicability and can be used in risk analysis for slope instability and other fields.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Wu Z R, Li J, Gu C S, et al. Review on hidden trouble detection and health diagnosis of hydraulic concrete structures. Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2007, 50(Suppl I): 34–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Zheng S R. Discussion on design operation life of water resources and hydropower projects in China (in Chinese). Water Resour Power, 2008, 2(4): 1–6

    Google Scholar 

  3. Barpi F, Ferrara G, Imperato L, et al. Lifetime of concrete dam models under constant loads. Mater Struct, 1999, 32(1): 103–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Sergio P. Impacts from decommissioning of hydroelectric dams: a life cycle perspective. Climatic Change, 2007, 84(2): 281–294

    Google Scholar 

  5. Wu Z R, Su H Z, Guo H Q. Assessment model of dam operation risk based on monitoring data. Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2007, 50(Suppl I): 144–152

    Google Scholar 

  6. Hyun-Han K, Young-II M. Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 2006, 20(2): 223–237

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Kasim Y, Cevat E. Reliability in dams and the effects of spillway dimensions on risk levels. Water Resour Manage, 2007, 21(6): 747–760

    Google Scholar 

  8. Wu Z R, Su H Z, Guo H Q. Risk assessment method of major unsafe hydroelectric project. Sci China Ser E-Tech Sci, 2008, 51(9): 1345–1352

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Zhao G F. Theory and Application of Engineering Structure Reliability (in Chinese). Dalian: Dalian University of Technology Press, 1996

    Google Scholar 

  10. Chen S Y. Theory and Application of Engineering Fuzzy Set (in Chinese). Beijing: National Defence Industry Press, 1998

    Google Scholar 

  11. National Standard of People’s Republic of China. The Unified Standard for Reliability Design of Building Structures (GB50068-2001) (in Chinese). Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 2001

    Google Scholar 

  12. Li L W, Shi Z. Method for risk analysis of water quality based on fuzzy probabilistic theory (in Chinese). J Hydraul Eng, 2007, 4(4): 17–21

    Google Scholar 

  13. Chen S Y, Hu J M. Variable fuzzy assessment method and its application in assessing water resources carrying capacity (in Chinese). J Hydraul Eng, 2006, 37(3): 264–27

    Google Scholar 

  14. Shlyakhtenko D. A free analogue of Shannon’s problem on monotonicity of entropy. Adv Math, 2007, 208(7): 824–833

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  15. Zhao S C, Zhao G F. Prediction of remaining service life of existing concrete structures based on reliability (in Chinese). Build Sci, 2001, 17(5): 19–22

    Google Scholar 

  16. Armand S R, Maria A S, Santos A D, et al. Dam-break flood emergency management system. Water Resour Manage, 2002, 16(4): 489–503

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering of Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    HuaiZhi Su, Jiang Hu & ZhongRu Wu

  2. National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Nanjing, 210098, China

    HuaiZhi Su & ZhongRu Wu

  3. College of Computer Engineering, Nanjing Institute of Technology, Nanjing, 211167, China

    ZhiPing Wen

Authors
  1. HuaiZhi Su
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. ZhiPing Wen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jiang Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. ZhongRu Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to HuaiZhi Su.

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 50809025, 50539110, 50539010, 50539030) and the Science and Technology Support Plan (Grant Nos. 2008BAB29B03, 2006BAC14B03)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Su, H., Wen, Z., Hu, J. et al. Evaluation model for service life of dam based on time-varying risk probability. Sci. China Ser. E-Technol. Sci. 52, 1966–1973 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-009-0151-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-009-0151-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation