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Simulation of urban expansion based on cellular automata and maximum entropy model

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Abstract

Urban expansion is a hot topic in land use/land cover change (LUCC) researches. In this paper, maximum entropy model and cellular automata (CA) model are coupled into a new CA model (Maxent-CA) for urban expansion. This model can help to obtain transition rules from single-period dataset. Moreover, it can be constructed and calibrated easily with several steps. Firstly, Maxent-CA model was built by using remote sensing data of China in 2000 (basic data) and spatial variables (such as population density and Euclidean distance to cities). Secondly, the proposed model was calibrated by analyzing training samples, neighborhood structure and spatial scale. Finally, this model was verified by comparing logistic regression CA model and their simulation results. Experiments showed that suitable sampling ratio (sampling ratio equals the proportion of urban land in the whole region) and von Neumann neighborhood structure will help to yield better results. Spatial structure of simulation results becomes simple as spatial resolution decreases. Besides, simulation accuracy is significantly affected by spatial resolution. Compared to simulation results of logistic regression CA model, Maxent-CA model can avoid clusters phenomenon and obtain better results matching actual situation. It is found that the proposed model performs well in simulating urban expansion of China. It will be helpful for simulating even larger study area in the background of global environment changes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank prof. Jun Chen, prof. Xia Li, Jigang Qiao, Dan Li, Xuhong Yang and Yougui Liu for collecting data and providing comments. And we also thank anonymous reviewers for many invaluable comments to improve this manuscript. This work was supported by the National Key R & D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFA0604404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41801304 & 41871306) and Educational Commission of Guangdong Province of China (Grant No. 2016KTSCX045).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Geography and Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangzhou, 510230, China

    Yihan Zhang

  2. Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Xiaoping Liu & Guangliang Chen

  3. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China

    Guohua Hu

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  1. Yihan Zhang
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  2. Xiaoping Liu
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  3. Guangliang Chen
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  4. Guohua Hu
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Correspondence to Xiaoping Liu.

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Zhang, Y., Liu, X., Chen, G. et al. Simulation of urban expansion based on cellular automata and maximum entropy model. Sci. China Earth Sci. 63, 701–712 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9530-8

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