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A novel procedure for pollen-based quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and its application in China

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Abstract

Traditionally, the evaluation of pollen-based quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions focuses on the ability of calibration sets to infer present climatic conditions and/or the similarity between fossil and modern assemblages. Objective criteria for choosing the most appropriate climate parameter(s) to be reconstructed at a specific site are thus lacking. Using a novel approach for testing the statistical significance of a quantitative reconstruction using random environmental data, in combination with the advantageous large environmental gradients, abundant vegetation types and comprehensive modern pollen databases in China, we describe a new procedure for pollen-based quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions. First, the most significant environmental variable controlling the fossil pollen assemblage changes is identified. Second, a calibration set to infer changes in this targeted variable is built up, by limiting the modern ranges of other environmental variables. Finally, the pollen-based quantitative reconstruction is obtained and its statistical significance assessed. This novel procedure was used to reconstruct the mean annual precipitation (P ann) from Gonghai Lake in the Lvliang Mountains, and Tianchi Lake in the Liupan Mountains, on the eastern and western fringe of the Chinese Loess Plateau, respectively. Both P ann reconstructions are statistically significant (p<0.001), and a sound and stable correlation relationship exists in their common period, showing a rapid precipitation decrease since 3300 cal yr BP. Thus, we propose that this procedure has great potential for reducing the uncertainties associated with pollen-based quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions in China.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the three reviewers for their constructive comments, Professors Zhuo Zheng and Houyuan Lv for providing some of the surface pollen data, Professors Houyuan Lv, and Haibin Wu for providing the interpolated climate data at the sampling sites, and Dr. Jan Bloemendal for English editing. The R script used in this paper is available from Jianhui Chen (jhchen@lzu.edu.cn) on request. The work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41471162 & 41571182) and the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFA0603402).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of West China’s Environmental System (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    JianHui Chen, FeiYa Lv, XiaoZhong Huang, HaiPeng Wang, AiFeng Zhou, Wei Huang, JianBao Liu & GuoYing Wei

  2. Department of Biology and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, N-5020, Bergen, Norway

    H. John B. Birks & Richard J. Telford

  3. Institute of Nihewan Archaeology Research, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, 050024, China

    ShengRui Zhang & QingHai Xu

  4. Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Yan Zhao

  5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Yan Zhao

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  1. JianHui Chen
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  2. FeiYa Lv
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  3. XiaoZhong Huang
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  4. H. John B. Birks
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Correspondence to JianHui Chen.

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Chen, J., Lv, F., Huang, X. et al. A novel procedure for pollen-based quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions and its application in China. Sci. China Earth Sci. 60, 2059–2066 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9095-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9095-1

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