Abstract
The 2015/16 El Niño developed from weak warm conditions in late 2014 and NINO3.4 reached 3oC in November 2015. We describe the characteristics of the evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño using various data sets including SST, surface winds, outgoing longwave radiation and subsurface temperature from an ensemble operational ocean reanalyses, and place this event in the context of historical ENSO events since 1979. One salient feature about the 2015/16 El Niño was a large number of westerly wind bursts and downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves (DWKVs). Four DWKVs were observed in April-November 2015 that initiated and enhanced the eastern-central Pacific warming. Eastward zonal current anomalies associated with DWKVs advected the warm pool water eastward in spring/summer. An upwelling Kelvin wave (UWKV) emerged in early November 2015 leading to a rapid decline of the event. Another outstanding feature was that NINO4 reached a historical high (1.7oC), which was 1oC (0.8oC) higher than that of the 1982/83 (1997/98) El Niño. Although NINO3 was comparable to that of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, NINO1+2 was much weaker. Consistently, enhanced convection was displaced 20 degree westward, and the maximum D20 anomaly was about 1/3−1/2 of that in 1997 and 1982 near the west coast of South America.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Ando K, Matsumoto T, Nagahama T, Ueki I, Takatsuki Y, Kuroda Y. 2005. Drift characteristics of a moored conductivity-temperature-depth sensor and correction of salinity data. J Atmos Ocean Technol, 22: 282–291
Amaya D J, Xie S P, Miller A J, McPhaden M J. 2015. Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus. J Geophys Res Oceans, 120: 6782–6798
Balmaseda M A, Mogensen K, Weaver A T. 2013. Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 131: 1132–1161
Balmaseda M A, Co-authors. 2015. The ocean reanalyses intercomparison project (ORA-IP). J Oper Oceanogr, 7: 81–99
Behringer D W, Ji M, Leetmaa A. 1998. An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part I: The ocean data assimilation system. Mon Weather Rev, 126: 1013–1021
Behringer D W, Xue Y. 2004. Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: The Pacific Ocean. In: Eighth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation System for Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land Surface, AMS 84th Annual Meeting, Washington State Convention and Trade Center. Seattle. 11–15
Cravatte S, Delcroix T, Zhang D, McPhaden M, Leloup J. 2009. Observed freshening and warming of the western Pacific Warm Pool. Clim Dyn, 33: 565–589
Chen D, Lian T, Fu C, Cane M A, Tang Y, Murtugudde R, Song X, Wu Q, Zhou L. 2015. Strong influence of westerly wind bursts on El Niño diversity. Nat Geosci, 8: 339–345
Chen S, Wu R, Chen W, Yu B, Cao X. 2016. Genesis of westerly wind bursts over the equatorial western Pacific during the onset of the strong 2015–2016 El Niño. Atmos Sci Lett, 17: 384–391
Fedorov A V, Hu S, Lengaigne M, Guilyardi E. 2015. The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development, and diversity of El Niño events. Clim Dyn, 44: 1381–1401
Gasparin F, Roemmich D. 2016. The strong freshwater anomaly during the onset of the 2015/2016 El Niño. Geophys Res Lett, 43: 6452–6460
Hu S, Fedorov A V. 2016. Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 113: 2005–2010
Huang B, Xue Y, Zhang D, Kumar A, McPhaden M J. 2010. The NCEP GODAS ocean analysis of the tropical Pacific mixed layer heat budget on seasonal to interannual time scales. J Clim, 23: 4901–4925
Huang B, Thorne P W, Smith T M, Liu W, Lawrimore J, Banzon V F, Zhang H M, Peterson T C, Menne M. 2016. Further exploring and quantifying uncertainties for extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) version 4. J Clim, 29: 3119–3142
Jacox M G, Hazen E L, Zaba K D, Rudnick D L, Edwards C A, Moore A M, Bograd S J. 2016. Impacts of the 2015−2016 El Niño on the California current system: Early assessment and comparison to past events. Geophys Res Lett, 43: 7072–7080
Ji M, Behringer D W, Leetmaa A. 1998. An improved coupled model for ENSO prediction and implications for ocean initialization. Part II: The coupled model. Mon Weather Rev, 126: 1022–1034
Jin F F. 1997. An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. Part I: Conceptual model. J Atmos Sci, 54: 811–829
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K C, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc, 77: 437–471
Kumar A, Hu Z Z. 2014. Interannual and interdecadal variability of ocean temperature along the equatorial Pacific in conjunction with ENSO. Clim Dyn, 42: 1243–1258
Levine A, Jin F F, McPhaden M J. 2016. Extreme noise-extreme El Niño: How state-dependent noise forcing creates El Niño-La Niña asymmetry. J Clim, 29: 5483–5499
Lee T, McPhaden M J. 2010. Increasing intensity of El Niño in the centralequatorial Pacific. Geophys Res Lett, 37: L14603
Lukas R, Lindstrom E. 1991. The mixed layer of the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. J Geophys Res, 96: 3343–3357
McPhaden M J. Ji M, Julian P, Meyers G, Mitchum G T. 1998. The tropical ocean-global atmosphere (TOGA) observing system: A decade of progress. J Geophys Res, 103: 169–14,240
McPhaden M J. 1999. Genesis and evolution of the 1997–98 El Niño. Science, 283: 950–954
McPhaden M J. 2012. A 21st century shift in the relationship between ENSO SST and warm water volume anomalies. Geophys Res Lett, 39: L09706
McPhaden M J. 2015. Playing hide and seek with El Niño. Nat Clim Change, 5: 791–795
Meinen C S, McPhaden M J. 2000. Observations of warm water volume changes in the Equatorial Pacific and their relationship to El Niño and La Niña. J Clim, 13: 3551–3559
Picaut J, Ioualalen M, Menkes C, Delcroix T, McPhaden M J. 1996. Mechanism of the zonal displacements of the Pacific Warm Pool: Implications for ENSO. Science, 274: 1486–1489
Reynolds R W, Rayner N A, Smith T M, Stokes D C, Wang W. 2002. An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J Clim, 15: 1609–1625
Shi L, Alves O, Wedd R, Balmaseda M A, Chang Y, Chepurin G, Ferry N, Fujii Y, Gaillard F, Good S A, Guinehut S, Haines K, Hernandez F, Lee T, Palmer M, Peterson K A, Masuda S, Storto A, Toyoda T, Valdivieso M, Vernieres G, Wang X, Yin Y. 2015. An assessment of upper ocean salinity content from the ocean reanalyses inter-comparison project (ORAIP). Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2868-7
Stockdale T N, Anderson D L T, Balmaseda M A, Doblas-Reyes F, Ferranti L, Mogensen K, Palmer T N, Molteni F, Vitart F. 2011. ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature. Clim Dyn, 37: 455–471
Takahashi K, Martinez R, Montecinos A, Dewitte B, Gutiérrez D, Rodriguez-Rubio E. 2014. Regional applications of observations in the eastern Pacific. In: Report of the Tropical Pacific Observing System 2020 Workshop (TPOS 2020). Vol II. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, GCOS-184/GOOS-206/WCRP-6/2014. San Diego: United States Publication. 171–205
Toyoda T, Fujii Y, Yasuda T, Usui N, Iwao T, Kuragano T, Kamachi M. 2013. Improved analysis of the seasonal-interannual fields by a global ocean data assimilation system. Theoret Appl Mech Jpn, 61: 31–48
Trenberth K E, Branstator G W, Karoly D, Kumar A, Lau N C, Ropelewski C. 1998. Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res, 103: 14291–14324
Vernieres G, Keppenne C, Rienecker M M, Jacob J, Kovach R. 2012. The GEOS-ODAS, description and evaluation. NASA Tech. Rep. Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, NASA/TM-2012-104606, Vol. 30
Vialard J, Delecluse P. 1998. An OGCM study for the TOGA decade. Part II: Barrier-layer formation and variability. J Phys Oceanogr, 28: 1089–1106
Weisberg R H, Wang C. 1997. A Western Pacific oscillator paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett, 24: 779–782
Wen C, Kumar A, Xue Y, McPhaden M J. 2014. Changes in tropical Pacific thermocline depth and their relationship to ENSO after 1999. J Clim, 27: 7230–7249
Xie P, Boyer T, Bayler E, Xue Y, Byrne D, Reagan J, Locarnini R, Sun F, Joyce R, Kumar A. 2014. An in situ-satellite blended analysis of global sea surface salinity. J Geophys Res Oceans, 119: 6140–6160
Xue Y, Leetmaa A, Ji M. 2000. ENSO prediction with Markov Models: The impact of sea level. J Clim, 13: 849–871
Xue Y, Huang B, Hu Z Z, Kumar A, Wen C, Behringer D, Nadiga S. 2011. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Clim Dyn, 37: 2511–2539
Yin Y, Alves O, Oke P R. 2011. An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon Weather Rev, 139: 786–808
Zebiak S E. 1989. Oceanic heat content variability and El Niño cycles. J Phys Oceanogr, 19: 475–486
Zhang S, Harrison M J, Rosati A, Wittenberg A. 2007. System design and evaluation of coupled ensemble data assimilation for global oceanic climate studies. Mon Weather Rev, 135: 3541–3564
Zheng F, Zhang R H. 2012. Effects of interannual salinity variability and freshwater flux forcing on the development of the 2007/08 La Niña event diagnosed from Argo and satellite data. Dyn Atmos Oceans, 57: 45–57
Zhu J, Kumar A, Huang B, Balmaseda M A, Hu Z Z, Marx L, Kinter III J L. 2016. The role of off-equatorial surface temperature anomalies in the 2014 El Niño prediction. Sci Rep, 6: 19677
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Dr. Dake Chen for the invitation and suggestion for the paper. We also thank Dr. Caihong Wen and Dr. Emily Becker for their constructive comments and suggestions at the internal review. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any view or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NWS, NOAA, or the Department of Commerce.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits use, duplication, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
About this article
Cite this article
Xue, Y., Kumar, A. Evolution of the 2015/16 El Niño and historical perspective since 1979. Sci. China Earth Sci. 60, 1572–1588 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-0106-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-0106-9