Abstract
It has been widely argued that China has prepared for launching cyberwarfare against the United States for long time. There are two reasons for this. First, the revolution of cyber technology changed the offense-defense balance, which will lead to frequent cyber conflicts. Second, with the relative decline of the United States and the rising up of China in recent years, there has been growing concerns about a Thucydides Trap between the two great powers, and cyberwar is very likely to happen. However, except for disputes on cyber espionage, China showed restraint on the offensive use of its cyberpower. This paper argues that China’s strategic thinking on cyber offense, defense, and cyberwarfare has been evolving over the past decades. Through content analysis of official documents and academic writings, this paper sheds light on the recent discussions and development of China’s cyber offense and defense strategy. With China’s gradual access to the global Internet and extensive participation in the international economic division of labor, maintaining the stability of global cyberspace is of greater significance to China, and the cost of launching cyber warfare is higher and higher. Such findings help avoid miscalculation and maintain strategic stability between China and the United States in cyberspace.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
For example, ‘the General Office of the CASS periodically submits two versions of the internal CASS Important Report (Yaobao) to the central government and other agencies: Information Special Report (Xinxi zhuanbao) and Leader Reference (lingdaocanyue)’. See [21].
Interview with Hao Yeli at Fudan Univ. on September 19th, 2019.
References
Mayer, Maximilian. 2019. China’s Authoritarian Internet and Digital Orientalism. In Redesigning Organizations – Concepts for the Connected Society, ed. Denise Feldner., 177–192. Luzern: Springer.
Mahoney, Josef Gregory. Orientalism. 2015. Yellow Peril,” and the “New Yellow Journalism”. Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 9: 1–24. “ .
Pillsbury, Michael. 2016. The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin’s Griffin.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 2007. 2007 Report to Congress. Retrieved from https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/annual_reports/2007-Report-to-Congress.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. 2012. Occupying the Information High Ground: Chinese Capabilities for Computer Network Operations and Cyber Espionage. Retrieved from http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB424/docs/Cyber-066.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
National Research Council of the National Academics. 2012. Terrorism and the Electric Power Delivery System. Washington, D.C.: National Academics Press.
Schwartau, Winn. 1994. Information Warfare: Chaos on the Electronic Superhighway. New York: Thunder’s Mouth.
Arquilla, John, and David Ronfeldt. 1993. Cyberwar is Coming! Comparative Strategy 12 (2): 141–165.
Everard, Jerry. 2000. Virtual States: The Internet and the Boundaries of the Nation-State. London and New York: Routledge.
Bendrath, Ralf. 2001. The Cyberwar Debate: Perception and Politics in US Critical Infrastructure Protection. Information and Security: An International Journal 7: 80–103.
Allison, Graham. 2012. Thucydide’s Trap Has Been Sprung in the Pacific. Financial Times. Retrieved from https://www.ft.com/content/5d695b5a-ead3-11e1-984b-00144feab49a. Accessed 20 January 2020.
US Embassy & Consulate in Vietnam. 2019. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper Remarks at Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. Retrieved from https://vn.usembassy.gov/secretary-of-defense-mark-t-esper-remarks-at-diplomatic-academy-of-vietnam. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Lindsay, Jon R., Tai Ming Cheung, and Derek S. Reveron, eds. 2015. China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain. New York: Oxford University Press.
Lindsay, Jon R. 2014/15. The Impact of China on Cybersecurity: Fiction and Friction. International Security 39 (3): 7–47.
Inkster, Nigel. 2016. China’s Cyber Power. New York: Routledge.
Miller, Alice L. 2014. More Already on the Central Committee’s Leading Small Groups. China Leadership Monitor 44: 1–8.
Shambaugh, David. 2002. China’s International Relations Think Tanks: Evolving Structure and Process. The China Quarterly 171: 581.
Glaser, Bonnie S., and Phillip C. Saunders. 2002. Chinese Civilian Foreign Policy Research Institutes: Evolving Roles and Increasing Influence. The China Quarterly 171: 597–616.
Li, Cheng. 2009. China’s New Think Tanks: Where Officials, Entrepreneurs, and Scholars Interact. China Leadership Monitor 29. Retrieved from http://media.hoover.org/sites/default/files/documents/CLM29CL.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Gill, Bates, and James Mulvenon. 2002. Chinese Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions. The China Quarterly 171: 618.
Zhu, Xufeng. 2011. Government Advisors or Public Advocates? Roles of Think Tanks in China from the Perspective of Regional Variations. The China Quarterly 207: 672.
Singer, P. W., and Allan Friedman. 2014. Cybersecurity and Cyberwar. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
US Cyber Solarium Commission. 2020. The Cyber Solarium Commission’s Final Report. Retrieved from https://www.solarium.gov/report. Accessed 20 March 2020.
Schmitt, Michael N. 2017. Tallinn Manual 2.0 on the International Law Applicable to Cyber Operations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Krepinevich, Andrew F. 1994. Cavalry to Computer: The Pattern of Military Revolutions. National Interest 37: 30–42.
Cohen, Eliot A. 1996. A Revolution in Warfare. Foreign Affairs 75 (2): 37–54.
Vickers, Michael G., and Robert C. Martinage. 2004. The Revolution in War. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
Kello, Lucas. 2013. The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft. International Security 38 (2): 26.
Shen, Changxiang. 1998. Wangluo Anquan Yu Xinxi Zhan [Network Security and Information Warfare]. Jianchuan Dianzi Gongcheng Ship Electronic Engineering 5: 3–5.
Zhang, Zhaozhong. 2001. Wangluo Shidai De Zhanzheng [War in the Internet Age]. Xinxi Anquan yu Tonxin Baomi Information Security and Communication Secrecy 7: 17–19.
Chen, Yu. 2001. Qiangzhan Weilai Zhigaodian: Zhiwangquan [Seize the Commanding Heights of the Future: Control the Network]. Hongqi Wengao Red Flag Internal Manuscript 16: 14–16.
Zhang, Junyong, and Liu Enliang, and Kang Yongsheng. 1999. Zhanzheng Xin Kongjian: Guoji Hulianwang- Cong Kesuowo Zhanzheng Kan Guoji Hulianwang Dui Weilai Zuozhan De Yingxiang [A New Space of War: The Impact of the Internet on Future Warfare from the Perspective of Kosovo War]. Xiandai Junshi Modern Military 10: 3–5.
Zhang, Maohua, Yang Daochi, and Wu Xinming. 2001. Wangluozhan- Shuzihua Shidai De Xinweixie [Cyber War: A New Threat in the Digital Age]. Xiandai Junshi Modern Military 4: 44–45.
Song, Kuoyi, and Dong He. 2001. Weilai Zhanzheng: Xinxi Anquan Chengwei Zhongtouxi [Future War: Information Security Becomes a Priority]. Guofang Keji National Defense Technology 9: 60–61.
Chen, Hongchao, Duan Benqin, and Tao Li. 2001. Ershiyi Shiji Zhanzheng Xin Gainian- Wangluozhan [A New Concept of War in the New Century —— Cyber Warfare]. Junshi Tonxin Jishu Military Communication Technology 4: 73–76.
Chen, Jian. 2001. Wangluozhan De Weixie Yu Duice [Threats and Countermeasures of Cyber Warfare]. Jianchuan Dianzi Duikang Electronic Countermeasures on Ships 6: 29–31.
Wang, Shaowen, and Lou Guocai, and Guo Chunlei. 2004. Nuli Duoqu Wangluozhan Zhong De Zhiwangquan [Strive to Seize the Control of Network in the Cyber Warfare]. Guofang National Defense 6: 23.
Liu, Lin,and Li Tiran. 2001. Jisuanji Wangluo Duikang Ji Qi Zhuangbei Fazhan [Computer Network Warfare and Its Equipment Development]. Xiandai Junshi Modern Military 4: 39–40.
Lv, Wei. 2001. Wangluo Gongfang Jishu Xianzhuang Ji Qi Fazhan Qushi [The Present Situation and Development of Network Offense and Defense Technology]. Guofang Keji National Defense Technology 2: 54–57.
Jiang, Panlin. 2001. Wangluozhan Yu Zhihui Kongzhizhan De Guanxi Ji Gongfang Jishu Yanjiu [Research on the Relationship between Network Warfare and Command and Control Warfare and the Techniques of Offense and Defense]. Hangtian Dianzi Duikang Aerospace Electronic Countermeasure 5: 36–40.
Yu, Ming, and Zhou Xiyuan. 2004. Xinxi Wangluo Duikang Jizhi De Gongfang Fenxi [Analysis of Offense and Defense Mechanism in Information Network War]. Wangluo Anquan Jishu yu Yingyong Cybersecurity Technology and Application 10: 37–39.
Cui, Jianhua, and Ma Tao, and Meng Bo. 2005. Jintie Shizhan Mou Daying [Stick to the Facts and Try to Win]. Zhongguo Minbing China Militia 7: 2.
Zhang, Zhaozhong. 2001. Wangluo Zhanzheng [Cyber Warfare]. Beijing: PLA Literature and Art Publishing House.
Liu, Shigang, ed. 2008. Shuzi Diqiu Yu Dandai Zhanzheng [Digital Earth and Contemporary Warfare]. Beijing: Chinese People’s Liberation Army Publishing House.
Xu, Xiaoyan, ed. 2002. Xinxi Zuozhanxue [Information Warfare]. Beijing: Chinese People’s Liberation Army Publishing House.
Guo, Shengwei. 2008. Xinxihua Zhanzhengyu Wangdian Budui [Information Warfare and Network Electromagnetic Forces]. Beijing: National Defense University Press.
Xiao, Wenguang, and Li Yuanlei. 2007. Jisuanji Wangluoyu Weilai Zhanzheng [Computer Network and Future War]. Jiangsu Hangkong Jiangsu Aviation 1: 31.
Guo. Xinxihua Zhanzhengyu Wangdian Budui, 257 – 59, 265 – 66, 275, 364.
Shang, Liang, Yang Guoxin, Shi Jianlai, and Sui Shilong. 2009. Wangluozhan Budui – Geguo Junzhong Xinchong [Cyberwarfare Forces: New Favorites of Services in Various Countries]. Guofang Keji National Defense Technology 4: 89.
Zhang, Yuliang, ed. 2006. Zhanyixue [Science of Campaign]. Beijing: National Defense University Press.
Dai, Qingmin. 2002. Wangdian Yitizhan [Integrated Network and Electromagnetic Warfare]. Beijing: Chinese People’s Liberation Army Publishing House.
Lu, Linzhi. Preemptive Strikes Are Crucial in Limited High-tech Wars. The PLA Daily, February 7, 1996.
Zhang. Zhanyixue, 90.
Guo. Xinxihua Zhanzhengyu Wangdian Budui, 223, 280, 281.
Dai. Wangdian Yitizhan, 107–108, 113 – 14, 160.
Lindsay, Jon R., Tai Ming Cheung, and Derek S. Reveron, eds. 2015. China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Qiao, Liang, and Wang Xiangsui. 1999. Chaoxianzhan [Unrestricted Warfare]. Beijing: PLA Literature and Arts Publishing House.
Lindsay, Jon R., Tai Ming Cheung, and Derek S. Reveron, eds. 2015. China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Inkster, Nigel. 2016. China’s Cyber Power. Routledge.
China Internet Network Information Center. 2008. The 22nd Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China. Retrieved from http://www.cac.gov.cn/2014-05/25/c_126548659.htm. Accessed 20 January 2020.
China Internet Network Information Center. 2011. The 27th Statistical Report on the Development of Internet in China. Retrieved from http://www.cac.gov.cn/2014-05/26/c_126548718.htm. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Council on Foreign Relations. 2010. Clinton’s Speech on Internet Freedom. Retrieved from http://www.cfr.org/internet-policy/clintons-speech-internet-freedom-january-2010/p21253. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Chi, Yannian. 2009. Jingti! Wangluo Zhanzheng Chengwei Yizhong Difengxian De Dianfu Shouduan [Watch out! Cyberwarfare is Becoming a Low-risk Means of Disruption]. Guofang National Defense 11: 71–73.
Lynn, William J. 2010. Defending a New Domain: The Pentagon’s Cyberstrategy. Foreign Affairs 89 (5): 101.
The White House. 2011. International Strategy for Cyberspace. Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/international_strategy_for_cyberspace.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Computer Security Resource Center, Department of Defense, U.S. Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace. Retrieved from http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SMA/ispab/documents/DOD-Strategy-for-Operating-in-Cyberspace.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Department of Defense, U.S. 2015. Cyber Strategy. Retrieved from https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/2015/0415_cyber-strategy/Final_2015_DoD_CYBER_STRATEGY_for_web.pdf. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Li, Shan. 2011. Xiankai Stuxnet Bingdu Shenmide Miansha [Lift the Veil of Stuxnet]. Kexueyu Wenhua Science and Culture 4: 19.
Wei, Qinzhi. 2013. Gongye Kongzhi Xitong Anquan Xianzhuangyu Anquan Celue Fenxi [Security Status and Security Strategy Analysis of Industrial Control System]. Xinxi Anquanyu Jishu Information Security Technology 2: 23–24.
Yu, Xiaoqiu. Wangluo Weisheli Shige Weixiande Youxi [Cyber Deterrence Is a Dangerous Game]. People’s Daily, July 25, 2011.
Li, Hong. 2011. Conglin Faze Jiaju Wangluo Zhanzheng Fengxian [Jungle Law Intensifies the Risk of Cyberwar]. People’s Tribune 16: 22–23.
Shen, Yi. 2011. Meiguo Wangluo Zhanlue “Mohe” Jiaoluan Shijie [The U.S. Cyber Strategy Disturbs the World]. People’s Tribune 16: 25–26.
He, Qisong. 2013. Meiguo Wangluo Weishe Lilun Zhizheng [The Debate on Cyber Deterrence Theory from the U.S. Scholars]. Guoji Zhengzhi Yanjiu International Politics Quartely 2: 53–74.
He, Qisong. 2012. Jinnian Meiguo Wangluo Weishe Lilun Yanjiu Shuping [A Research Review on the Theory of Cyber Deterrence in the U.S. in the Recent Year]. Xiandai Guoji Guanxi Contemporary International Relations 10: 7–10.
Ren, Lin, and Gong Weian. 2015. Wangluo Anquande Zhanlue Xuanze [Strategic Choice of Cybersecurity]. Guoji Anquan Yanjiu International Security Studies 5: 40–58.
Dong, Qingling, and Dai Changzheng. 2012. Wangluo Kongjian Weishe: Baofu Shifou Kexing [Cyber Deterrence:Is Retaliatory Strategy Possible]. Shijie Jingjiyu Zhengzhi World Economics and Politics 7: 99–116.
Liang, Kui. Wangluo Weishe: Weier Nanshe [Cyber Deterrence Is Hard to Work]. Zhongguo Guofangbao China Military, August 8, 2011.
Yang, Yanbo. Jujiao Meijun “Wangluo Weishe” [The U.S. Cyber Deterrence Strategy]. Zhongguo Guofangbao China Military, January 9, 2012.
Ye, Zheng, and Zhao Baoxian. Wangluozhan, Zenmezhan [How to Deal with Cyberwarfare]. Zhongguo Qingnianbao China Youth Daily, June 3, 2011.
Lindsay, Jon R., Tai Ming Cheung, and Derek S. Reveron, eds. 2015. China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Wu, Hequan. 2014. Guojijian Wangluo Anquan Gongfang Shi Yichang Chijiuzhan [The Global Cyber Security Battle is a Protracted War]. Chuangxin Keji Innovation Science and Technology 13: 6.
Dong, Qingling. 2016. Wangluo Kongjian Weishe Yanjiu Jiqi Guanjian Wenti [Research on Deterrence in Cyberspace and Its Key Issues]. Xinxi Anquan Yanjiu Journal of Information Security Research 10: 920–925.
Cheng, Qun, and He Qisong. 2015. Goujian Zhongguo Wangluo Weishe Zhanlue [Building China’s Cyber Deterrence Strategy]. Zhongguo Xinxi Anquan China Information Security 11: 40–42.
Li, Bin. 2006. Zhongguo Hezhanlue Bianxi [Analysis of China’s Nuclear Strategy]. Shijiejingji yu Zhengzhi World Economics and Politics 9: 16–22.
Fravel, M., Taylor, and Evan S. Medeiros. 2010. China’s Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure. International Security 35 (2): 71.
Long, Zaiye. 2015. Wangluo Kongjian Weishe Zhiheng Nengli Jianshe De Zhongguo Sikao [China’s Consideration on the Construction of Deterrence and Power Balance in Cyberspace]. Zhongguo Xinxi Anquan China Information Security 11: 36–39.
Jiang, Yamin. 2015. Jiaqiang Wangluo Weishe Liliang Jianshe Shi Xinxi Shidai De Qiangguo Zhi Ce [Strengthening the Construction of Cyber Deterrent Force as a Powerful Strategy in the Information Age]. Zhongguo Xinxi Anquan China Information Security 11: 54–57.
Yuan, Yi. 2015. Qianxi Wangluo Kongjian Weishede Tezheng Leixinghe Yunyong Yaodian [A Brief Analysis of the Characterstic, Types, and Application Points of Cyber Deterrence]. Zhongguo Xinxi Anquan China Information Security 11: 43–46.
Gao, Yan. 2017. Tuijin Wangluo Kongjian Junkong Jiaqiang Wangluo Fangyu Beizhan [Promote Arms Control in Cyberspace and Strengthen Cyber Defense]. Baomi Kexue Jishu Confidential Science and Technology 6: 6–9.
Lu, Chuanying. 2017. Wangluo Wuqi Kuosan He Jianxing Jianjin De Wangluozhan [Cyber Weapons Proliferation and Cyber Warfare on the Horizon]. Xinxi Anquan yu Tongxin Baomi Information Security and Confidentiality of Communications 8: 6–7.
People’s Daily Overseas Website. 2019. Discussing the Rules of the Game in the Digital World – Interview with Hao Yeli, Chairman of the Guanchao Cyberspace Forum. Retrieved from http://m.haiwainet.cn/middle/3541089/2019/0703/content_31585895_1.html. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Zhou, Hongren. 2019. Wangluo Kongjian De Xingqi Yu Zhanlue Wending [The Rise of Cyberspace and Strategic Stability]. Guoji Zhanwang Global Review 3: 21–34.
Luo, Xingguo, Tong Qing, Zhang Zheng, and Wu Jiangxing. 2016. Nitai Fangyu Jishu [Mimic Defense Technology]. Zhongguo Gongcheng Kexue Chinese Engineering Science 6: 69–73.
Liff, Adam P. 2012. Cyberwar: A New “Absolute Weapon?” The Proliferation of Cyberwarfare Capabilities and Interstate War. Journal of Strategic Studies 35 (3): 401–428.
Kello, Lucas. 2013. The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft. International Security 38 (2): 7–40.
Wu, Jiangxing. 2016. Wangluo Kongjian Nitai Fangyu Yanjiu [Research on Mimic Defense in Cyberspace]. Xinxi Anquan Xuebao Journal of Information Security 4: 1–10.
Wang, Huanqiu. 2019. Qiangwang Nitai Fangyu Xitong Jingshou Erbai Jiushi Wanci Gongji Tiaozhan [The Mimic Defense System Experienced 2.9 Million Challenges]. Retrieved from https://tech.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKkKYk. Accessed 20 January 2020.
The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. 2015. China’s Military Strategy. Retrieved from https://news.usni.org/2015/05/26/document-chinas-military-strategy. Accessed 20 January 2020.
China Copyright and Media. 2016. National Cyberspace Security Strategy. Retrieved from https://chinacopyrightandmedia.wordpress.com/2016/12/27/national-cyberspace-security-strategy/. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Xinhua News. 2017. International Strategy of Cooperation on Cyberspace. Retrieved from http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2017-03/01/c_136094371.htm. Accessed 20 January 2020.
Peng, Guangqian, and Yao Youzhi. 2001. Zhanluexue [Science of Strategy]. Beijing: Military Sciences Press.
Li, Bin. 2006. Zhongguo Hezhanlue Bianxi [Analysis of China’s Nuclear Strategy]. Shijiejingji yu Zhengzhi World Economics and Politics 9: 16–22.
Shen, Yi. 2016. Cyber Sovereignty and the Governance of Global Cyberspace. Chinese Political Science Review 1 (1): 81–93.
Cappelletti, Alessandra. 2019. Between Centrality and Re-scaled Identity: A New Role for the Chinese State in Shaping China’s Image Abroad. Chinese Political Science Review 4 (3): 349–374.
Akdag, Yavuz. 2019. The Likelihood of Cyberwar between the United States and China: A Neorealism and Power Transition Theory Perspective. Journal of Chinese Political Science 24 (2): 225–247.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of Interest
I declare that I have no financial and personal relationships with other people or organizations that can inappropriately influence my work, there is no professional or other personal interest of any nature or kind in any product, service and/or company that could be construed as influencing the position presented in, or the review of, the manuscript entitled.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Appendices
Appendix I
Appendix II
Appendix III
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Jiang, T. The Shift of China’s Strategic Thinking on Cyberwarfare Since the 1990s. J OF CHIN POLIT SCI 28, 127–149 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-022-09813-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-022-09813-3