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How does population aging affect China’s energy consumption?

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Abstract

In China, the proportion of elderly population is growing, influencing economic development and energy consumption. Our study investigates the relationship between population aging and energy consumption in China from 1997 to 2020, considering both short and long-term effects. The analysis employs the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation and explores the underlying mechanisms using mediating effects and threshold effects models. The PMG results reveal a negative long-term impact of population aging on energy consumption, indicating that a 1% increase in population aging leads to a 0.348% decrease in energy consumption. Additionally, GDP per capita and capital stock exhibit positive correlations with energy consumption, while the industrial structure shows a negative correlation. Technological progress is found to significantly increase energy consumption. The mechanism analysis suggests that the mediating role of scale and technological effects contributes to the negative effect of population aging on energy consumption. Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship between population aging and energy consumption is observed, influenced by both population size and technological progress. The policy implications call for a comprehensive approach that addresses elderly population growth, enhances energy efficiency, and promotes sustainable technologies to ensure sustainable economic development.

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Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank all the reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions. We also acknowledge supports from the Major Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (19ZDA082), the Young Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72103027) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2022CDSKXYJG007).

Funding

This work is financially supported by the Major Project of the National Social Science Foundation of China (19ZDA082), the Young Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72103027) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2022CDSKXYJG007).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing University, South University Town Road 55, Chongqing, 401331, China

    Yuehan Yu & Hao Feng

  2. School of Economics and Business Management, Chongqing University, Shazhengjie 174, Chongqing, 400040, China

    Rong Yuan

Authors
  1. Yuehan Yu
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  2. Hao Feng
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  3. Rong Yuan
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Specific contributions for each author are below.

Yuehan Yu: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Software, Investigation, Writing-original draft.

Hao Feng: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing-review, Editing, Supervision.

Rong Yuan: Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rong Yuan.

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Yu, Y., Feng, H. & Yuan, R. How does population aging affect China’s energy consumption?. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 102673–102686 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29507-4

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