Abstract
Land use changes have a considerable impact on ecosystem services (ESs). In recent years, land use changes caused by urban expansion in Nanjing City have been obvious and are expected to further change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to quantitatively assess ecosystem service value (ESV) changes caused by previous land use changes and future potential changes in Nanjing. In this study, land use data products based on remote sensing images, Dyna-CLUE model, and the ESV equivalent coefficient method were applied to assess the impact of land use changes on ESVs in Nanjing City over the past 23 years (1995–2018), and to forecast the changes of ESV in 2030. The results indicated that the total ESVs of Nanjing City displayed a trend of first increasing and then declining in 1995–2018. From the land use classification, the water area had the largest ESV in Nanjing, followed by arable land. Additionally, the regulating service value was the highest among the four primary ESs in Nanjing from 1995 to 2030, with the highest value of 13.73 billion yuan in 2015. Among the three forecast scenarios, the ecological protection scenario had the highest total ESV and was followed by the urban expansion and business as usual scenarios. These findings may assist for the scientific decision-making of sustainable land use and ecosystem management in Nanjing City.
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Abbreviations
- ESs:
-
Ecosystem services
- ESVs:
-
Ecosystem service values
- BAU scenario:
-
Business as usual scenario
- UE scenario:
-
Urban expansion scenario
- EP scenario:
-
Ecological protection scenario
- GIS:
-
Geographical information system
- ROC:
-
Relative operating characteristic
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 51908249), the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (grant no. 19KIB560012), the High-level Scientific Research Foundation for the introduction of talent for Jiangsu University (grant no. 18JDG038), the Integration and demonstration of collaborative intelligent management technology of energy and carbon emission in Suzhou rail transit (grant no. ST202218), and the Innovative Approaches Special Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (grant no. 2020IM020300).
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Ping Yu: data curation; writing—original draft preparation; methodology
Shuainan Zhang: visualization, investigation
Peng Wang: writing—reviewing and editing
Yingnan Li: supervision
Lei Huang: reviewing
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Yu, P., Zhang, S., Wang, P. et al. Evaluation and prediction of land use change impacts on ecosystem service values in Nanjing City from 1995 to 2030. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 18040–18063 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23346-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-23346-5