Abstract
China’s transportation industry is entering a stage of high-quality development. Carbon emissions and environmental protection issues have put pressure on the construction of a green and low-carbon transportation system, and the transportation industry has become one of the industries with the fastest growth in carbon emissions. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions in the transportation industry and predict its carbon emissions. This article first thoroughly analyzes the main sources of carbon emissions in the transportation industry, including nine major energy consumption sources such as coal, gasoline, and diesel, and obtains the carbon emission values from 2000 to 2017. Secondly, a linear regression analysis was performed on 13 pre-selected influencing factors and CO2 emissions in the transportation industry. In order to obtain the potential similarities between the factors, factor 13 is divided into four categories: economic scale, population size, transportation structure, and energy consumption. Each category and factor analysis is divided into four potential factors. Third, a training model was established based on the data from 2000 to 2012. Four algorithms, neural network (BP), extreme learning machine (ELM), genetic algorithm optimized neural network (GA-BP), and genetic algorithm optimized extreme learning machine (GA-ELM) are used to predict 2013 to 2017 and compare the predicted value of its respective algorithm with the actual value. Finally, the results show that the genetic algorithm optimized extreme learning machine (GA-ELM) hybrid heuristic algorithm has the highest degree of fit between the predicted value and the true value, which further illustrates the carbon emissions of the hybrid heuristic algorithm in the transportation industry. For the superiority of the prediction, the study also shows that the four influencing factors seriously affect the carbon emissions of the transportation industry. Therefore, accelerating the upgrading of the transportation structure and changing the proportion of energy consumption will be important measures for the transportation sector to control carbon emissions in the next step, so as to promote the sustainable development of the transportation system.
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This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71964022) and North China Electric Power University Central University Fund (Grant No. 2014MS150).
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, Data collection and analysis were carried out by Li Yanmei, Dong Hongkai and Lu Shuangshuang. The first draft of the manuscript was written by HongKai Dong and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Li, Y., Dong, H. & Lu, S. Research on application of a hybrid heuristic algorithm in transportation carbon emission. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 48610–48627 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14079-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14079-y