Abstract
Water level (a vital indicator for flood warnings and water management in floodplains) has been changed notably due to climatic and anthropogenic forces; however, very little is known about the relative effects of these agents. In this study, we take the Taihu Plain as an example to investigate potential factors driving changes in water level components through quantiles from 1954 to 2014. To quantify the extent of water level component changes attributable to climate variability and human activity, several non-stationary models considering rainfall, tide, evaporation, and hydraulic regulation as covariates are established based on generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. The results indicate that most water level components increased over time and changed abruptly around the mid-1980s. As for climatic factors, the variability of rainfall, tide and evaporation significantly affected water level variation based on most quantiles from 1954 to 2014. Among several kinds of human activities, hydraulic regulation was a key factor influencing water level based on a high correlation coefficient. Positive effects were identified from hydraulic regulation regarding the association between rainfall and water level components; these effects depend on water level quantiles and the amount of rainfall occurrence. Our study has broad implications, providing a better understanding of water level variation and regional flood management.
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig1_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig2_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig3_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig4_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig5_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig6_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig7_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig8_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig9_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-020-08889-9/MediaObjects/11356_2020_8889_Fig10_HTML.png)
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Allaire M, Vogel R, Kroll C (2015) The hydromorphology of an urbanizing watershed using multivariate elasticity. Adv Water Resour 86:147–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2015.09.022
Assani A, Landry R, Biron S, Frenette J (2014) Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010. Hydrol Process 28:4011–4022. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9941
Bazrafshan J, Hejabi S (2018) A non-stationary reconnaissance drought index (NRDI) for drought monitoring in a changing climate. Water Resour Manag 32(8):2611–2624. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-1947-z
Chen Z, Wang Z (1999) Yangtze Delta, China: Taihu lake-level variation since the 1950s, response to sea-level rise and human impact. Environ Geol 37(4):333–339. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002540050
Cheng X, Evans E, Wu H, Thorne C, Han S, Simm J, Hall J (2013) A framework for long-term scenario analysis in the Taihu Basin, China. J Flood Risk Manag 6(1):3–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12024
Cochrane T, Arias M, Piman T (2014) Historical impact of water infrastructure on water levels of the Mekong River and the Tonle Sap system. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:4529–4541. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4529-2014
Cong Z, Shahid M, Zhang D, Lei H, Yang D (2017) Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe upstream basin, China. Hydrol Sci J 62(6):1013–1028. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2017.1283043
Das M, Ghosh S, Chowdary V, Saikrishnaveni A, Sharma R (2016) A probabilistic nonlinear model for forecasting daily water level in reservoir. Water Resour Manag 30:3107–3122. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1334-6
Deng X, Xu Y, Han L, Yang M, Yang L, Song S, Li G, Wang Y (2016) Spatial-temporal evolution of the distribution pattern of river systems in the plain river network region of the Taihu basin, China. Quat Int 392:178–186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.04.010
Dey P, Mishra A (2017) Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a review of methodologies and critical assumptions. J Hydrol 548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014
Evtimova V, Donohue I (2016) Water-level fluctuations regulate the structure and functioning of natural lakes. Freshw Biol 61:251–264. https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12699
Gaines JM (2016) Flooding: water potential. Nature 531(7594):S54–S55. https://doi.org/10.1038/531S54a
Hannaford J, Buys G, Stahl K, Tallaksen L (2013) The influence of decadal-scale variability on trends in long European streamflow records. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:2717–2733. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2717-2013
Harvey GL, Thorne CR, Cheng X, Evans EP, Simm SHJD, Wang Y (2010) Qualitative analysis of future flood risk in the taihu basin, China. J Flood Risk Manag 2(2):85–100. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01024.x
Hecht J, Lacombe G, Arias M, Duc D, Piman T (2019) Hydropower dams of the mekong river basin: a review of their hydrological impacts. J Hydrol 568:285–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.10.045
Hu Q, Wang Y (2009) Impact assessment of climate change and human activities on annual highest water level of Taihu Lake. Water Sci Eng 2(1):1–15. https://doi.org/10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2009.01.001
Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London
Khakiab M, Awangea J, Forootanc E, Kuhna M (2018) Understanding the association between climate variability and the Nile's water level fluctuations and water storage changes during 1992-2016. Sci Total Environ 645:1509–1521. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.212
Lai X, Jiang J, Yang G, Lu X (2014) Should the Three Gorges Dam be blamed for the extremely low water levels in the middle-lower Yangtze River? Hydrol Process 28:150–160. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10077
Li Y, Acharya K, Yu Z (2011) Modeling impacts of Yangtze River water transfer on water ages in Lake Taihu, China. Ecol Eng 37(2):325–334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2010.11.024
Li H, Zhang Q, Singh VP, Shi P, Sun P (2017) Hydrological effects of cropland and climatic changes in arid and semi-arid river basins: a case study from the Yellow River basin, China. J Hydrol 549:547–557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.024
Lin H, Cheng A, Mei Q, Xu J (2014) Studies on warning water level of Taihu Lake, China. Water Res 745:55–57 (In Chinses)
Liu W 2016 Water abstraction along the Yangtze River downstream from Datong to estuary and its impact on water discharge into estuary. East China Normal University, Dissertation. (In Chinese)
Liu L, Xu Z, Reynard N, Hu C, Jones R (2013) Hydrological analysis for water level projections in Taihu Lake, China. J Flood Risk Manag 6:14–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12015
López J, Francés F (2013) Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in continental Spanish rivers, using climate and reservoir indices as external covariates. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(8):3189–3203. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3189-2013
Machado M, Botero B, López J, Francés F, Díezherrero A, Benito G (2015) Flood frequency analysis of historical flood data under stationary and non-stationary modelling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 19(6):525–568. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2561-2015
Mann H (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
McDonald K, Bosshard P, Brewer N (2008) Exporting dams: China’s hydropower industry goes global. J Environ Manag 90:294–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.07.023
Milly PCD, Wetherald RT, Dunne K, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415:514–517. https://doi.org/10.1038/415514a
Peng D, Qiu L, Fang J, Zhang Z (2016) Quantification of climate changes and human activities that impact runoff in the Taihu Lake Basin, China. Math Probl Eng. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2194196
Penning-Rowsell E, Yanyan W, Watkinson A, Jiang J, Thorne C (2013) Socioeconomic scenarios and flood damage assessment methodologies for the Taihu basin, China. J Flood Risk Manag 6(1):23–32
Pettitt A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729
Rigby R, Stasinopoulos D (2007) Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. J R Stat Soc 23(7):507–554, doi: 0035–9254/05/5/54507
Schilling K, Chan K, Liu H, Zhang Y (2010) Quantifying the effect of land use land cover change on increasing discharge in the upper Mississippi River. J Hydrol 387(3–4):343–345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.019
Song S, Xu YP, Zhang JX, Li G, Wang YF (2016) The long-term water level dynamics during urbanization in plain catchment in Yangtze River. Delta Agric Water Manag 174:93–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2016.01.010
Song J, Duan X, Han H, Li Y, Li Y, He D (2019a) The accumulation and redistribution of heavy metals in the water-level fluctuation zone of the Nuozhadu reservoir, Upper Mekong. Catena 172:335–344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.08.027
Song S, Xu Y, Wu Z, Deng X, Wang Q (2019b) The relative impact of urbanization and precipitation on long-term water level variations in the Yangtze River Delta. Sci Total Environ 648:460–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.433
Villarini G, Strong A (2014) Roles of climate and agricultural practices in discharge changes in an agricultural watershed in Iowa. Agric Ecosyst Environ 188:204–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.02.036
Wang L, Cai Y, Chen H, Daler D, Zhao J, Yang J (2011) Flood disaster in Taihu Basin, China: causal chain and policy option analyses. Environ Earth Sci 63:1119–1124. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-010-0786-x
Wang H, Chen L, Yu X (2015) Distinguishing human and climate influences on streamflow changes in Luan River basin in China. Catena 136:182–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.02.013
Wang Y, Chen X, Chen Y, Liu M, Gao L (2017) Flood/drought event identification using an effective indicator based on the correlations between multiple time scales of the standardized precipitation index and river discharge. Theor Appl Climatol 128:159–168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1699-0
Wang Q, Xu Y-P, Xu Y, Wu L, Wang Y, Han L (2018) Spatial hydrological responses to land use and land cover changes in a typical catchment of the Yangtze River Delta region. Catena 170:305–315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.06.022
Wang X, He K, Dong Z (2019a) Effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Beichuan River basin in the northeastern Tibetan plateau, China. Catena 176:81–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2019.01.001
Wang Y, Tabari H, Xu Y, Willems P (2019b) Atmospheric and human-induced impacts on temporal variability of water level extremes in the Taihu Basin. China. J Flood Risk Manag. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12539
Wu L, Wang S, Bai X, Luo W, Tian Y, Zeng C (2017) Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in a typical karst watershed. SW China. Sci Total Environ 601–602:1449–1465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.288
Xu G, Xu Y, Luo X, Xu H, Xu X, Hu C (2014) Temporal and spatial variation of water level in urbanizing plain river network region. Water Sci Technol 69:2191–2199. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2014.133
Yamazaki D, Lee H, Alsdorf DE, Dutra E, Kim H, Kanae S, Oki T (2012) Analysis of the water level dynamics simulated by a global river model: a case study in the Amazon River. Water Resour Res 48. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012wr011869
Yang W, Long D, Bai P (2019) Impacts of future land cover and climate changes on runoff in the mostly afforested river basin in north China. J Hydrol 570:201–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.055
Yin Y, Xu Y, Chen Y (2009) Maximum water level of Taihu Lake and its relation to the climate change and human activities. Resour Environ Yangtze Basin 18:609–614 (In Chinese)
Yuan Y, Zeng G, Liang J, Huang L, Hua S, Li F, Zhu Y, Wu H, Liu J, He X, He Y (2015) Variation of water level in Dongting Lake over a 50-year period: implications for the impacts of anthropogenic and climatic factors. J Hydrol 525:450–456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.04.010
Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann–Kendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259(1):254–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00594-7
Zhang W, Yan Y, Zheng J, Li L, Dong X, Cai H (2009) Temporal and spatial variability of annual extreme water level in the Pearl River Delta region, China. Glob Planet Chang 69:35–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.07.003
Zhang E, Savenije H, Chen S, Chen J (2012) Water abstraction along the lower Yangtze River, China, and its impact on water discharge into the estuary. Phys Chem Earth 47-48(16):76–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.05.002
Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh VP, Xiao M, Xu CY (2014) Stationarity of annual flood peaks during 1951-2010 in the Pearl River basin, China. J Hydrol 519:3263–3274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.028
Zhang Q, Gu X, Singh VP, Xu C-Y, Kong D, Xiao M, Chen X (2015) Homogenization of precipitation and flow regimes across China: changing properties, causes and implications. J Hydrol 530:462–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.041
Zhang Y, You Q, Chen C, Ge J (2016) Impacts of climate change on streamflows under RCP scenarios: a case study in Xin River basin, China. Atmos Res 178-179:521–534. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.04.018
Zhang W, Cao Y, Zhu Y, Wu Y, Ji X, He Y, Xu Y, Wang W (2017) Flood frequency analysis for alterations of extreme maximum water levels in the Pearl River Delta. Ocean Eng 129:117–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.11.013
Zhao Y, Zou X, Gao J, Xu X, Wang C, Tang D, Wang T, Wu X (2015) Quantifying the anthropogenic and climatic contributions to changes in water discharge and sediment load into the sea: a case study of the Yangtze River, China. Sci Total Environ 536:803–812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.07.119
Zheng H, Zhang L, Zhu R, Liu C, Sato Y, Fukushima Y (2009) Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin. Water Resour Res 45. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007wr006665
Funding
This work was supported by the National Key Technology Support Program (No.2018YFC1508201), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.41771032), the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (KJQN201900513; KJQN201800511), the Foundation of Chongqing Normal University (19XLB009), and the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing, China (cstc2018jcyjAX0736), the Young People Training Program Foundation for the Top Talents of Chongqing Normal University (Fourth batch)(00572017).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Responsible editor: Marcus Schulz
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, Y., Xu, Y., Song, S. et al. Assessing the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on water level variation in the Taihu Plain based on non-stationary statistical models. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27, 22829–22842 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08889-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08889-9