Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

  • Published:
Atlantic Economic Journal Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Water utility planning efforts are becoming increasingly difficult throughout the world. Located in a semi-arid region, Ciudad Juárez, Mexico is a fast growing municipality that faces both physical infrastructure and water supply constraints. This paper examines monthly water consumption in Ciudad Juárez utilizing a linear transfer function procedure (LTF). Analysis is carried out for per customer usage and for the total number of municipal water system accounts. Models estimated for both series are subjected to a series of simulation benchmark tests. Findings suggest that water consumption in Ciudad Juárez reacts quickly to changes in economic and weather conditions. Out-of-sample simulation results are mixed. Per customer usage forecasts do not fare as well those for total customers relative to random walk benchmarks.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Amiel, R. “Mexico,” Global Insight Quarterly Review and Outlook – Latin American and Caribbean, Third Quarter 2005, pp. 73–87.

  • Arimah, B. C. “What Drives Infrastructure Spending in Cities of Developing Countries?,” Urban Studies, 42, 2005, pp. 1345–1368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley, R.; Granger, C. W. J.; Schmalansee, R. “Advertising and Aggregate Consumption – An Analysis of Causality,” Econometrica, 48, 1980, pp. 1149–1167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box, G. E. P.; Jenkins, G. M. Time Series Analysis, Control, and Forecasting, 2nd ed., San Francisco, California: Holden Day, 1976.

    Google Scholar 

  • Castañón, A. “Rechazan Aumento en Saneamiento,” El Diario de Ciudad Juárez, Enero 30, 2005, p. 1.

  • Chavez, O. E. “Mining of Internationally Shared Aquifers: The El Paso – Juarez Case,” Natural Resources Journal, 40, 2000, pp. 237–260.

    Google Scholar 

  • Christman, J. H. “Maquiladora Industry Outlook,” Global Insight Maquiladora Industry Outlook, September 2005, pp. 35–48.

  • Dalhuisen, J. M.; Florax, J. G. M.; de Groot, H. L. F.; Nijkamp, P. “Price and Income Elasticities of Residential Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis,” Land Economics, 79, 2003, pp. 292–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diebold, F. X.; Mariano, R. S. “Comparing Predictive Accuracy,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 1995, pp. 253–265.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engineering News-Record. “Quality Woes Spark Border Spat,” ENR, 244, 10, 2000, p.15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, T. M., Jr. “Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy,” Journal of Transportation & Statistics, 7, 2004, pp. 7–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • — “Water Transfers in El Paso County, Texas,” Water Policy, 8, 2006, pp. 255–268.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, T. M., Jr.; Schauer, D. A. “Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends,” Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 7, 2001, pp. 167–187.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, T. M., Jr.; Tinajero, R. “Cross-Border Cargo Vehicle Flows,” International Journal of Transport Economics, 29, 2002, pp. 201–213.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, T. M., Jr.; Nava, A. C. “Short-Term Water Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico,” Water Resources Research, 39, 9, 2003, pp. WES1.1–WES1.6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fullerton, T. M., Jr.; Elías, A. “Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas,” Water Resources Research, 40, 8, 2004, pp. W08201.1–W08201.7.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harris, J. L.; Liu, L. “Dynamic Structural Analysis and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption,” International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 1993, pp. 437–455.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inoue, A.; Kilian, L. “In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,” Econometric Reviews, 23, 2004, pp. 371–402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kolb, R. A.; Stekler, H. O. “Are Economic Forecasts Significantly Better than Naive Predictions? An Appropriate Test,” International Journal of Forecasting, 9, 1993, pp. 117–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leamer, E. E. “Let’s take the Con out of Econometrics,” American Economic Review, 73, 1983, pp. 31–43.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, L. M.; Lin, M. W. “Forecasting Residential Consumption of Natural Gas Using Monthly and Quarterly Time Series,” International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 1991, pp. 3–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lloyd, W. J.; Marston, R. A. “Municipal and Industrial Water Supply in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico,” Water Resources Bulletin, 21, 1985, pp. 841–849.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martínez-Espiñeira, R. “Residential Water Demand in the Northwest of Spain,” Environmental and Resource Economics, 21, 2002, pp. 161–187.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martínez-Espiñeira, R.; Nauges, C. “Is all Domestic Water Consumption Sensitive to Price Control?,” Applied Economics, 36, 2004, pp. 1697–1703.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCloskey, D. N.; Ziliak, S. T. “The Standard Error of Regressions,” Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 1996, pp. 97–114.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nieswiadomy, M. L.; Molina, D. J. “A Note on Price Perception in Water Demand Models,” Land Economics, 67, 1991, pp. 352–359.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pindyck, R. S.; Rubinfeld, D. L. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th ed., New York, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shin, J. “Perception of Price when Price Information is Costly: Evidence from Residential Electricity Demand,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 1985, pp. 591–598.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theil, H. Economic Forecasts and Policy, 2nd ed., Amsterdam, The Netherlands: North-Holland, 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tserkezos, E. D. “Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in Greece Using Monthly and Quarterly Data,” Energy Economics, 14, 1992, pp. 226–232.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wei, W. W. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods, New York, New York: Addison-Wesley, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, M.; Suh, B. “The Demand for Urban Water by Customer Class,” Applied Economics, 18, 1986, pp. 1275–1289.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, 79968-0543, U.S.A

    Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Roberto Tinajero

  2. Department of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez, Ciudad Juarez, Mexico

    Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

Authors
  1. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Roberto Tinajero
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thomas M. Fullerton Jr..

Additional information

Financial support for this research was provided by Southwest Center for Environmental Research Policy Grant W-04-03. Additional financial support was provided by El Paso Electric Company, Wells Fargo Bank of El Paso, and National Science Foundation Grant SES-0332001. Helpful comments and suggestions were provided by Cely Ronquillo, Brian Kelley, and Cesar Olivas. Econometric research assistance was provided by Marycruz De Leon and Irma Torres.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fullerton, T.M., Tinajero, R. & Barraza de Anda, M.P. Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico. Atl Econ J 34, 467–479 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-006-9031-0

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11293-006-9031-0

JEL

Keywords:

Search

Navigation