Abstract
In the context of worldwide water shortage, environmental flow is the key to alleviating the negative environmental impact of reservoir operation. In reality, there exists a range for the stream flow suitable for the survival and reproduction of aquatic organisms. However, most of current studies set it to a fixed value, which leads to unreasonable resource allocations. In this study, we proposed a fuzzy representation of environmental flow by using the fuzzy theory and the ecological hydraulic radius. Furthermore, we used the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs as a study case and Four Major Chinese Carps as indicator species. In addition, a multi-objective operation optimization model was established, which was solved by the Evolver Palisade software. Finally, a multi-objective risk analysis method was proposed based on the design reliability and risk rate of various benefit operations. The results show that: (1) Based on the environmental flow membership function, flow ranges suitable for the aquatic organism survival and reproduction at specific locations can be determined to guide reservoir discharge. (2) Taking environmental flow membership as an optimization objective rather than a constraint is conducive to formulating environmentally friendly reservoir operation schemes and making more rational use of water resources. (3) The multi-objective risk analysis can avoid the one-sidedness of single-objective risk analysis and provide more basis for reservoir management. Ecological demands have long been a factor considered when formulating reservoir operation schemes. Therefore, following the environmentally friendly operation scheme is helpful to protect the environment and maximize the overall benefits of reservoirs.
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Data Availability Statement
Data for this study can be downloaded from the Yichang Hydrology Bureau webpage (http://www.hbycsw.com). The code and the Joint Operation Procedure ([2020]135, China's Ministry of Water Resources) are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.
The authors confirm that this article is original research and has not been published or presented previously in any journal or conference.
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Acknowledgements
The authors would like to give special thanks to the anonymous reviewers.
Funding
This study is financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0402208, 2016YFC0401903, 2017YFC0405900) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51641901, No. 51879273).
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Conceptualization: J.L., J.R.L.; Methodology: J.H., P.L.; Formal analysis and investigation: J.H.; Writing—original draft preparation: J.H., P.L.; Writing—review and editing: J.L.; Funding acquisition: J.L.; Supervision: J.R.L.
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Li, J., Huang, J., Liang, P. et al. Fuzzy Representation of Environmental Flow in Multi-Objective Risk Analysis of Reservoir Operation. Water Resour Manage 35, 2845–2861 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02872-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-021-02872-w