Abstract
Land cover change (LCC) is the most important factor in causing ecosystems services (ES) loss. In Mediterranean basins, coastal areas historically suffer from great anthropic pressure. These changes influence runoff, and municipal authorities often cannot estimate the impact of complex land cover transitions. In such context, the great urban and industrial development of the towns surrounding the city of Rome (Italy) represents a paradigmatic case study. In this paper, land cover evolution in a watershed located in a peri-urban environment has been studied in terms of LCC and the consequential flood risk. The information concerning land cover transformations was analyzed in following time scenarios: 1954, 1967 and 2018. The identification of occurred rainfall events, and the application of a combined hydrological and hydraulic modelling, allowed the estimation of flooded areas and volumes. The obtained results allowed to quantify the increase in the flood risk, that was more pronounced in the part of the selected area that has been more extensively interested by the soil sealing. The increase in the flood risk was larger in the hypothesis of a rainfall occurring when the soil is dry, like it can happen for the common case of summer precipitations.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Apollonio C, Balacco G, Novelli A, Tarantino E, Piccinni AF (2016) Land use change impact on flooding areas: the case study of Cervaro Basin (Italy). Sustainability Vol 8:996. https://doi.org/10.3390/su8100996
ARSIAL (2019) Regional agency for the development and innovation of agriculture in the Lazio region. S.E.L.C.A, Firenze
Aryal K, Singh TP, Lamichhane D (2019) Revisiting agroforestry for building climate resilient communities: a case of package-based integrated agroforestry practices in Nepal. Emerg Sci J 3(5):303–311. https://doi.org/10.28991/esj-2019-01193
Bhatti BN, Siyal AA, Qureshi AL, Bhatti IA (2019) Land covers change assessment after small Dam’s construction based on the satellite data. Civil Eng J 5(4):810–818. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2019-03091290
Brath A, Montanari A, Moretti G (2006) Assessing the effect on flood frequency of land use change via hydrological simulation (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 324:141–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.10.001
Dang ATN, Kumar L (2017) Application of remote sensing and GIS-based hydrological modelling for flood risk analysis: a case study of District 8, Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam. Geomat Nat Haz Risk 8(2):1792–1811. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1388853
FLO-2D (2012) FLO-2D Reference Manual. https://www.flo-2d.com/download/
Green WH, Ampt GA (1911) Studies on soil physics. J Agric Sci 4:1–24
Hu S, Fan Y, Zhang T (2020) Assessing the effect of land use change on surface runoff in a rapidly urbanized city: a case study of the central area of Beijing. Land 9:17. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9010017
Kandissounon GA, Kalra A, Ahmad S (2018) Integrating system dynamics and remote sensing to estimate future water usage and average surface runoff in Lagos, Nigeria. Civil Eng J 4(2):378–393. https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-030998
Li Y, Zhua X, Suna X, Wang F (2010) Landscape effects of environmental impact on bay-area wetlands under rapid urban expansion and development policy: a case study of Lianyun- gang, China. Landscape Urban Plan 94:218–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.10.006
Liu YB, De Smedt F, Hoffmann L, Pfister L (2004) Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modelling approach. Environ Model Assess 9:227–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-005-0306-7
Moghadasi N, Karimirad I, Sheikh V (2017) Assessing the impact of land use changes and rangeland and forest degradation on flooding using watershed modeling system. J Rangel Sci 7(2):93–106
Munafò M, Salvati L, Zitti M (2013) Estimating soil sealing rate at national level—Italy as a case study. Ecol Indic 26:137–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.11.001
Nagarajan M, Basil G (2014) Remote sensing- and GIS-based runoff modeling with the effect of land-use changes (a case study of Cochin corporation). Nat Hazards 73:2023–2039. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1173-9
NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service) (2008) National engineering handbook - part 630. Hydrology. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC
Pascual-Aguilar J, Andreu V, Gimeno-García E, Picó Y (2015) Current anthropogenic pressures on agro-ecological protected coastal wetlands. Sci Total Environ 503–504:190–199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.07.007
Petroselli A, Grimaldi S (2018) Design hydrograph estimation in small and fully ungauged basin: a preliminary assessment of the EBA4SUB framework. J Flood Risk Manag 11:197–210. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12193
Piscopia R, Petroselli A, Grimaldi S (2015) A software package for the prediction of design flood hydrograph in small and ungauged basins. J Agric Eng, 2015; XLVI: 432 pp 74–84. https://doi.org/10.4081/jae.2015.432
Recanatesi F (2015) Variations in land-use/land-cover changes (LULCCs) in a peri-urban Mediterranean nature reserve: the estate of Castelporziano (Central Italy). Rend Fis Acc Lincei 26(S3):517–526. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12210-014-0358-1
Recanatesi F, Tolli M, Ripa MN, Pelorosso R, Gobattoni F, Leone A (2013) Detection of landscape patterns in airborne LIDAR data in the nature reserve of Castelporziano (Rome). J Agric Eng 44:472–477. https://doi.org/10.4081/jae.2013.336
Recanatesi F, Petroselli A, Ripa MN, Leone A (2017) Assessment of stormwater runoff management practices and BMPs under soil sealing: a study case in a peri-urban watershed of the metropolitan area of Rome (Italy). J Environ Manag 201:6–18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.06.024
Rogger M, Agnoletti M, Alaoui A, Bathurst JC, Bodner G, Borga M, Chaplot V, Gallart F, Glatzel G, Hall J, Holden J, Holko L, Horn R, Kiss A, Kohnová S, Leitinger G, Lennartz B, Parajka J, Perdigão R, Peth S, Plavcová L, Quinton JN, Robinson M, Salinas JL, Santoro A, Szolgay J, Tron S, van den Akker JJH, Viglione A, Blöschl G (2017) Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: challenges and opportunities for future research. Water Resour Res 53(7):5209–5219. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020723
Shrestha BB (2019) Approach for analysis of land-cover changes and their impact on flooding regime. Quaternary 2:27. https://doi.org/10.3390/quat2030027
United Nations. World urbanization prospects (2012) The 2011 revision. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York
Wang GX, Liu JQ, Kubota JP, Chen L (2007) Effects of land use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River, Northeast China. Hydrol Process 21:1370–1382. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6308
Woodward D E, Hawkins R H, Jiang R, Hjelmfelt A T, Van Mullem J A, Quan Q D (2003) Runoff curve number method: examination of the initial abstraction ratio. World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 691–700. https://doi.org/10.1061/40685(2003)308
Acknowledgments
The research was partially supported by MIUR (Italian Ministry for education, University and Research) in the context of the initiative “Department of excellence”.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Recanatesi, F., Petroselli, A. Land Cover Change and Flood Risk in a Peri-Urban Environment of the Metropolitan Area of Rome (Italy). Water Resour Manage 34, 4399–4413 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02567-8
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02567-8