Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Quantifying Flood Frequency Modification Caused by Multi-Reservoir Regulation

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The construction and the operation of multi-reservoir has severely altered the downstream design flood. This paper quantified the flood frequency modifications caused by multi-reservoir regulation with recorded data and a numerical model composed of peaks-over-threshold (POT) samples and time-trend models. The whole research was carried out in Dongjiang River Basin, Southern China. Results showed that (1) Sampling with the POT method could eliminate fake changes in change detection and prevent the underestimation of the design floods with an exceeding probability over 90% and the overestimation of the design floods with an exceeding probability less than 80%; (2) Multi-reservoir regulation severely reduced design flood when the exceeding probability was greater than 1% and smaller than 95%. The 10-year floods were mitigated the most. However, when the exceeding probability was over 95%, the impact was insignificant; (3) Flood mitigation was positively correlated to the number of reservoirs, but negatively correlated to the distance between the affecting reservoir and the affected station. However, when multiple reservoirs took effect on the design flood in one station, the closest reservoir did not necessarily take the most effect. The results of this research will amplify the theoretical basis for flood protection and the planning of regulation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Ayalew Tibebu B, Krajewski Witold F, Ricardo M (2013) Exploring the effect of reservoir storage on peak discharge frequency. J Hydrol Eng 18:1697–1708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ayalew Tibebu B, Krajewski Witold F, Ricardo M, Wright Daniel B, Small Scott J (2017) Effect of spatially distributed Small dams on flood frequency: insights from the Soap Creek watershed. J Hydrol Eng 22:04017011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beguería S, Marta A-M, Vicente-Serrano Sergio M, Ignacio L-MJ, Ahmed E-K (2011) Assessing trends in extreme precipitation events intensity and magnitude using non-stationary peaks-over-threshold analysis: a case study in Northeast Spain from 1930 to 2006. Int J Climatol 31:2102–2114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bezak N, Brilly M, Šraj M (2014) Comparison between the peaks-over-threshold method and the annual maximum method for flood frequency analysis. Hydrol Sci J 59:959–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH (1994) Hydrologic effects of climate change in west-Central Canada. J Hydrol 160:53–70

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y (2018) Distributed hydrological models. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Cunnane C (1973) A particular comparison of annual maxima and partial duration series methods of flood frequency prediction. J Hydrol 18:257–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Davison AC, Smith RL (1990) Models for Exceedances over high thresholds. J R Stat Soc Ser B Methodol 52(3):393–425. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1990.tb01796.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Debele SE, Strupczewski WG, Bogdanowicz E (2017) A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Acta Geophys 65:863–883

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding J, Yuan J, Lan F, Qi L, Qiuzhi P, Muyi K (2015) Impacts of land use on surface water quality in a Subtropical River basin: a case study of the Dongjiang River basin, Southeastern China. Water 7:4427–4445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duan W, Guo S, Wang J, Dedi L (2016) Impact of cascaded reservoirs group on flow regime in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Water 8:218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gautier E, Dépret T, Costard F, Virmoux C, Fedorov A, Grancher D, Konstantinov P, Brunstein D (2017) Going with the flow : hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change. J Hydrol 557:475–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gu W, Shao D, Tan X et al (2017) Simulation and optimization of multi-reservoir operation in Inter-Basin water transfer system. Water Resour Manag 31:3401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1675-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He X, Yoshihide W, Niko W, Justin S (2017) Intensification of hydrological drought in California by human water management. Geophys Res Lett 44:1777–1785

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoggan Daniel H (1997) Computer-assisted flood plain hydrology and hydraulics. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hosking JRM, Wallis JR (1997) Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Hu Y, Liang Z, Chen X, Liu Y et al (2017) Estimation of design flood using EWT and ENE metrics and uncertainty analysis under non-stationary conditions. Stoch Env Res Risk A 31(10):2617–2626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kite GW (1988) Frequency and risk analysis in hydrology. Water Resources Publication, Fort Collins, p 224

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee J, Jun-Haeng H, Lee J, Nam K (2017) Assessment of flood frequency alteration by dam construction via SWAT simulation. Water 9:264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang EY, Chan FKS, Scheffran J (2018) Climate change, water management and stakeholder analysis in the Dongjiang River basin in South China. Int J Water Resour Dev 34(2):166–191. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1264294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Guo S, Pan L, Fuqiang G (2009) Study on the optimal operating rules for cascade hydropower stations based on output allocation model. J Hydroelectr Eng 28(3):26–31 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu D, Xiaohong C, Yanqing L, Zhanghua L (2010) Impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff in the Dongjiang River basin of China. Hydrol Process 24:1487–1495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Z, Guo S, Guo J, Pan L (2016) The impact of three gorges reservoir refill operation on water levels in Poyang Lake, China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 31:879–891

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maingi JK, Marsh Stuart E (2002) Quantifying hydrologic impacts following dam construction along the Tana River, Kenya. J Arid Environ 50:53–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Martins ES, Stedinger JR (2001) Generalized maximum likelihood Pareto-Poisson estimators for partial duration series. Water Resour Res 37:2551–2557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mei X, Van Gelder PHAJM, Zhijun D, Zhenghong T (2016) Impact of dams on flood occurrence of selected rivers in the United States. Front Earth Sci 11:268–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meng J, Li L, Zhenchun H, Wang J, Quanxi S (2014) Suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall in driving a distributed hydrological model in the source region of Yellow River. J Hydrol 509:320–332

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michelle H, Upmanu L, Maura A, Naresh D, Han KH, Indrani P, David R, David W (2018) The future role of dams in the United States of America. Reviews of Geophysics: Commentaries on Hydrology and Earth Surface, 982-998. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pall P, Tolu A, Stone Dáithí A, Stott Peter A, Toru N, Hilberts Arno GJ, Dag L, Allen Myles R (2011) Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature 470:382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Razmi A, Golian S, Zahmatkesh Z (2017) Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme water level: application of annual maximum series and peak-over threshold approaches. Water Resour Manag 31:2065. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1619-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter BD, Baumgartner Jeffrey V, Jennifer P, Braun David P (1996) A method for assessing hydrologic alteration within ecosystems. Conserv Biol 10:1163–1174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Risser MD, Wehner MF (2017) Attributable human-induced changes in the likelihood and magnitude of the observed extreme precipitation during hurricane Harvey. Geophys Res Lett 44:12457–12464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silva AT, Portela MM, Naghettini M, Fernandes W (2017) A Bayesian peaks-over-threshold analysis of floods in the Itajaí-açu River under stationarity and nonstationarity. Stoch Env Res Risk A 31(1):185–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silvestro F, Gabellani S, Rudari R, Delogu F, Laiolo P, Boni G (2015) Uncertainty reduction and parameters estimation of a~distributed hydrological model with ground and remote sensing data. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 11:1727–1751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song W, Yunzhong J, Xiaohui L, Wang H, Dongcai S (2015) Annual runoff and flood regime trend analysis and the relation with reservoirs in the Sanchahe River basin, China. u 380-381:197–206

    Google Scholar 

  • Sugahara S, Da Rocha RP, Silveira R (2010) Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Int J Climatol 29:1339–1349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tu X, Singh VP, Chen X et al (2015) Intra-annual distribution of Streamflow and individual impacts of climate change and human activities in the Dongijang River basin, China. Water Resour Manag 29:2677. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0963-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vicente-Serrano SM, Zabalza-Martínez J, Borràs G, López-Moreno JI, Pla E, Pascual D, Savé R, Biel C, Funes I, Azorin-Molina C, Sanchez-Lorenzo A, Martín-Hernández N, Peña-Gallardo M, Alonso-González E, Tomas-Burguera M, El Kenawy A (2017) Extreme hydrological events and the influence of reservoirs in a highly regulated river basin of northeastern Spain. J Hydrol Regional Stud 12:13–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.01.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Smith JA, Serinaldi F, Bales J, Bates PD, Krajewski WF (2009) Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Adv Water Resour 32:1255–1266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wan X, Hua L, Yang S et al (2018) Evaluating the impacts of a large-scale multi-reservoir system on flooding: case of the Huai River in China. Water Resour Manag 32:1013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1852-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Z (2007) Effects of climatic change and LUCC on hydrological system in the Dongjiang River basin, South China. Dissertation, Sun Yat-sen University

  • Wang W., Chen X., Shi P., Van Gelders, PHAJM (2008) Detecting changes in extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12 (1), 207-221 ⟨hal-00305129⟩

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu J, Zhiyong L, Huaxia Y, Xiaohong C, Xingwei C, Zheng Y, He Y (2018) Impacts of reservoir operations on multi-scale correlations between hydrological drought and meteorological drought. J Hydrol 563:726–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiong L, Du T, Xu CY et al (2015) Non-stationary annual maximum flood frequency analysis using the norming constants method to consider non-Stationarity in the annual daily flow series. Water Resour Manag 29:3615. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1019-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ye C, Chen X, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhu A (2014) Comparative study on non-stationary flood frequency analysis in different backgrounds of changing environment. J Hydroelect Eng 33:1–9+18

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Mingzhong X, Chun-Ling L, Singh Vijay P (2014) Reservoir-induced hydrological alterations and environmental flow variation in the East River, the Pearl River basin, China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 28:2119–2131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao G, Gao H, Naz Bibi S, Chieh KS, Nathalie V (2016) Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model. Adv Water Resour 98:16–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhong Y, Guo S, Zhangjun L, Wang Y, Jiabo Y (2017) Quantifying differences between reservoir inflows and dam site floods using frequency and risk analysis methods. Stoch Env Res Risk A 32:419–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T, Wu J, Shaolin P (2012a) Assessing the effects of landscape pattern on river water quality at multiple scales: a case study of the Dongjiang River watershed, China. Ecol Indic 23:166–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, Qiang Z, Kun L, Xiaohong C (2012b) Hydrological effects of water reservoirs on hydrological processes in the East River (China) basin: complexity evaluations based on the multi-scale entropy analysis. Hydrol Process 26:3253–3262

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The research is financially supported by Acknowledgement: The research is financially supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0405900), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91547202, 51861125203, 51479216), the Chinese Academy of Engineering Consulting Project (2015-ZD-07-04-03), the Project for Creative Research from Guangdong Water Resources Department (Grant No. 2016-07, 2016-01), Research program of Guangzhou Water Authority (2017).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Yi-han Tang, Jie-feng Wu, Pei-yi Li, Li-juan Zhang, Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin

  2. Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Yi-han Tang, Jie-feng Wu, Pei-yi Li, Li-juan Zhang, Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin

  3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Yi-han Tang, Jie-feng Wu, Pei-yi Li, Li-juan Zhang, Xiao-hong Chen & Kai-rong Lin

Authors
  1. Yi-han Tang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jie-feng Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Pei-yi Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Li-juan Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xiao-hong Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Kai-rong Lin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Xiao-hong Chen.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Tang, Yh., Wu, Jf., Li, Py. et al. Quantifying Flood Frequency Modification Caused by Multi-Reservoir Regulation. Water Resour Manage 33, 4451–4470 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02374-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02374-w

Keywords

Search

Navigation