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Reducing False Flood Warnings of TRMM Rain Rates Thresholds over Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia by Utilizing AMSR-E Soil Moisture Information

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Abstract

Rainfall rates and soil moisture content have been recognized as the most critical parameters in flood forecasts; the former known as forcing and the latter as the state variable. The main objective of this article is the incorporation of antecedent soil moisture information to reduce false flood warnings over Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia. The forcing variable was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Real Time (RT) data (3B42RT). Soil moisture (SM) information was obtained from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) as the state variable. Long time series SM information (2002–2011) provided Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of SM. CDF with 90% was taken as the SM threshold value. Flooding is indicated for rainy dates exceeding the rain thresholds with the previous satellite overpass SM being greater than 90% CDF of the respective month. The methodology removed the false flood warnings substantially when compared to the flood warnings where SM information was absent. The method is robust and simple, and it can be applied on TRMM and AMSR-E follow on missions; like Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP).

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research, College of Engineering Research Center at King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The data providers of TRMM 3B42RT Version 7 and AMSR-E, GCOM, are also acknowledged. The authors would also like to thank Mr. Cory Albers, M. Sc., P. Eng. of Source2Source Inc., as well as Dr. Newfel Mazari of University of Texas at San Antonio for their thoughtful review and editing of the article.

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  1. Civil Engineering Department, Çankırı Karatekin University, Çankırı, Turkey

    Ahmet Emre Tekeli

  2. Civil Engineering Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

    Hesham Fouli

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  1. Ahmet Emre Tekeli
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  2. Hesham Fouli
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Correspondence to Ahmet Emre Tekeli.

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Tekeli, A.E., Fouli, H. Reducing False Flood Warnings of TRMM Rain Rates Thresholds over Riyadh City, Saudi Arabia by Utilizing AMSR-E Soil Moisture Information. Water Resour Manage 31, 1243–1256 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-017-1573-1

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