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The Influence of Accurate Lag Time Estimation on the Performance of Stream Flow Data-driven Based Models

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Abstract

The timing of variables for stream flow prediction models remains a common problem, particularly with regards to stream flow data-driven based models. Accurate estimation of lag time (Lt), which is representative of time interval, is a potential solution to this problem. The main objective of this paper is to explore possibilities of improving the performance of stream flow data-driven based models by developing a new and simple hydrological approach to accurately estimate Lt between upstream and downstream stations in the Selangor River Basin. The Lt was estimated by means of several empirical formulas along with the new proposed approach that is based on observed hourly stream flow records and water level data. The estimated Lt was used to select the input and output variables for two Multiple Linear Regression models (MLR)—as examples of data-driven based models—to explore the capacity to enhance stream flow data-driven based model performance. An assessment of the two models’ result performance indicates that the MLR model, which is dependent on the proposed method, produced roughly 5 % overall improvement in root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Not only do the results highlight how effective the proposed approach is in estimating Lt to improve the stream flow MLR model’s performance, but they also serve as a starting point to further study potential improvements from other types of data-driven based models.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the support rendered by the Hydrology and Water Resources Division of the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), Malaysia. Special thanks are due to MIS (Malaysian International Scholarship, MOHE) and ACP-JSPS (Asian Core Program) for their support in the study. The authors would also like to acknowledge the financial assistance from grant FL026-2012D for this research. We are most grateful and would like to thank the reviewers for their valuable suggestions that have led to substantial improvements to the article.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Malaya, 50603, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

    Mohammed Seyam & Faridah Othman

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  1. Mohammed Seyam
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  2. Faridah Othman
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Correspondence to Faridah Othman.

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Seyam, M., Othman, F. The Influence of Accurate Lag Time Estimation on the Performance of Stream Flow Data-driven Based Models. Water Resour Manage 28, 2583–2597 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0628-9

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