Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy)

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The importance of simulation models to assess the impacts of droughts and the effects of mitigation options on water supply systems is well known. However a common procedure about the exploitation of model results is not established yet. Vulnerability is used to characterize the performance of the system, and it can be a helpful indicator in the evaluation of the most likely failures. In this paper a water allocation model is applied to the water supply system of the upper Tiber Basin (Central Italy) in which both surface waters (rivers, reservoirs) and ground waters (wells, springs) are exploited to feed mainly irrigation and civil users. Drought vulnerability indices are calculated to analyze the performance of the supply system under different climate and management conditions. Water shortage scenarios are simulated as a progressive reduction of mean precipitation, an increase in its standard deviation or a combination of both. The model shows that the safety of the water supply system mainly relies on the reservoirs and that the foreseen increased exploitation of the springs to replace contaminated wells, could be seriously limited by discharge decrease during fall. The vulnerability reduction obtained by a hypothetical augmentation of the storage capacity through additional small reservoirs was positively tested by the model. In conclusion vulnerability indices and synoptic risk maps demonstrated to be useful tools to analyze the model outputs. They provide easy-to-read scenarios to be used in a decision making framework considering negotiating among the main users.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Andreu J, Capilla J, Sanchis E (1996) AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support-system for water-resources planning and operational management. J Hydrol 177:269–291

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bellezza M, Casadei S, Manciola P, Pierleoni A (2007) Mathematical model for multipurpose water resource management. Proceedings of 22nd European Regional Conference ICID-CIID ERWG, Water Resources Management and Irrigation and Drainage Systems Development in the European Environment, Pavia-Italy, CD, topic 1: 1–12

  • Bencivenga M, Ranieri E (1997) Il regime dei deflussi del Tevere a Roma (The regimen of Tiber flow in Rome, in italian). L’Acqua 3:51–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonaccorso B, Peres DJ, Cancelliere A, Rossi G (2013) Large scale probabilistic drought characterization over Europe. Water Resour Manag 27:1675–1692. doi:10.1007/s11269-012-0177-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boni C, Petitta M, Preziosi E, Sereni M (1993) Genesi e regime di portata delle acque continentali del Lazio (Genesis and regimen of the fresh waters of Latium, in italian). –CNR, Roma, Italy, ISBN 978-88-8080-106-1 (http://www.cnr.it/sitocnr/Iservizi/Edizioni/Catalogopubblicazioni/Catalogo.html?id=398)

  • Brekke LD, Dettinger MD, Maurer EP, Anderson M (2008) Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distribution for regional hydroclimatological risk assessment. Clim Chang 89:371–394. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9388-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cancelliere A, Ancarani A, Rossi G (1998) Susceptibilty of water supply reservoirs to drought conditions. J Hydrol Eng 3:140–148

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cancelliere A, Di Mauro G, Bonaccorso B, Rossi G (2007) Drought forecasting using the standardized precipitation index. Water Resour Manag 21:801–819. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9062-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Casadei S, Bellezza M, Pierleoni A (2009) Sviluppo di scenari di ripartizione delle risorsa utilizzabile dello schema idrico gestito dall’Ente Irriguo Umbro-Toscano (Development of scenarios for the allocation of resources used by the water supply system managed by the Ente Irriguo Umbro-Toscano). Internal Report,, Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Tevere (http://www.abtevere.it), Roma,Italy

  • de Graaf R, van de Giesen N, van de Ven F (2009) Alternative water management options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands. Nat Hazards 51:407–422. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9184-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng S, Li LX, Duan ZG, Zhang JL (2007) Assessing the impacts of south-to-north water transfer project with decision support system. Decis Support Syst 42:1989–2003. doi:10.1016/j.dss.2004.11.004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gan TY (2000) Reducing vulnerability of water resources of Canadian prairies to potential droughts and possible climatic warming. Water Resour Manag 14:111–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Garrote L, Martin-Carrasco F, Flores-Montoya F, Iglesias A (2007) Linking drought indicators to policy actions in the Tagus basin drought management plan. Water Resour Manag 21:873–882. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9086-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giordano R, Preziosi E, Romano E (2013) Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: some hints from an Italian case study. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0724-9

    Google Scholar 

  • Hashimoto T, Stedinger JR, Loucks DP (1982) Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resources system performance evaluation. Water Resour Res 18–1:14–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu NS, Cheng KW (2002) Network flow optimization model for basin-scale water supply planning. J Water Resour Plann Manag 128(2):102–112. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(102)

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglesias A, Garrote L, Flores F, Moneo M (2007) Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean. Water Resour Manag 21:775–788. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9111-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jinno K, Zongxue X, Kawamura A, Tajiri K (1995) Risk assessment of a water supply system during drought. Water Resour Dev 11–2:185–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu TM, Tung CP, Ke KY, Chuang LH, Lin CY (2009) Application and development of a decision-support system for assessing water shortage and allocation with climate change. Paddy Water Environ 7:301–311. doi:10.1007/s10333-009-0177-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist K (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale. In 8th conference on applied climatology. Am. Meteor. Soc, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Merabtene T, Kawamura A, Jinno K, Olsson J (2002) Risk assessment for optimal drought management of an integrated water resources system using a genetic algorithm. Hydrol Process 16:2189–2208. doi:10.1002/hyp.1150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pachauri R, Reisinger A (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, IPCC, Geneva, p 104

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmieri S, Migliardi E, Bersani P (2008) Trends and change points in the hydrometeorological hystory of the Tiber River Basin. J Tech Environ Geol 1:41–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Paredes-Arquiola J, Andreu-Álvarez J, Martín-Monerris M, Solera A (2010) Water quantity and quality models applied to the Jucar river basin, Spain. Water Resour Manag 24:2759–2779. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9578-z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paulo AA, Pereira LS (2007) Prediction of SPI drought class transitions using Markov chains. Water Resour Manag 21:1813–1827. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9129-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierleoni A, Bellezza M, Casadei S, Manciola P (2007) Multipurpose water use in a system of reservoirs. IAHS Pubblication, changes in water resources systems: methodologies to maintain water security and ensure integrated management. IUGG2007 Perugia, Italy, 315: 107–116

  • Preziosi E, Del Bon A, Petrangeli AB, Romano E (2009) La vulnerabilità dei grandi sistemi di approvvigionamento idrico del bacino del Tevere in condizioni di siccità. Definizione di un sistema di azioni di prevenzione e mitigazione (The vulnerability of the main water supply systems in the Tiber basin in drought conditions. Definition of a set of prevention and mitigation actions, in italian). Quaderni dell’Istituto di Ricerca sulle Acque, 129, 133 p, ISSN 0390–6329, http://www.irsa.cnr.it/ShQuad.php?lang=en&lim=116

  • Rao Z, Debski D, Webb D, Harpin R (2010) Genetic algorithm-based optimization of water resources allocation under drought conditions. Water Sci Technol: Water Supply 10–4:517–525. doi:10.2166/ws.2010.185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romano E, Del Bon A, Petrangeli AB, Preziosi E (2013) Generating synthetic time series of springs discharge in relation to standardized precipitation indices. Case study in Central Italy. J Hydrol. (in press)

  • Romano E, Preziosi E (2010) The sustainable pumping rate concept: lessons from a case study in central Italy. Ground Water 48:217–226. doi:10.1111/j.1745-6584.2009.00628.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romano E, Preziosi E (2013) Climate evolution analysis in the Tiber basin (central Italy) by means of standardized indices of precipitation (1952–2007). Int J Climatol 33:1781–1792. doi:10.1002/joc.3549

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Romano E, Petrangeli AB, Preziosi E (2011) Spatial and time analysis of rainfall in the Tiber river basin (Central Italy) in relation to discharge measurements (1920–2010). Proced Environ Sci 7:258–263. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2011.07.045

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rossi G, Cancelliere A (2012) Managing drought risk in water supply systems in Europe: a review. Water Resour D. doi:10.1080/07900627.2012.713848

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossi G, Caporali E, Garrote L (2012) Definition of risk indicators for reservoirs management optimization. Water Resour Manag 26:981–996. doi:10.1007/s11269-011-9842-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ryu JH, Contor B, Johnson G, Allen R, Tracy J (2012) System dynamics to sustainable water resources management in the eastern snake plain aquifer under water supply uncertainty. J Am Water Resourc Assoc 48(6):1204–1220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stakhiv E, Stewart B (2010) Needs for climate information in support of decision-making in the water sector. Proced Environ Sci 1:102–119. doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004) Towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsakiris G, Pangalou D, Vangelis H (2007) Regional drought assessment based on the reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Water Resour Manag 21:821–833. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9105-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ubertini L, Calenda G (1993) Gestione integrata degli invasi e definizione delle portate di minimo vitale (Integrated management of the reservoirs and minimum vital flow definition). Internal Technical Report (in Italian), Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Tevere (http://www.abtevere.it) Roma, Italy

  • Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289–5477:284–288. doi:10.1126/science.289.5477.284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whilite DA, Svoboda MD, Hayes MJ (2007) Understanding the complex impacts of drought: a key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resour Manag 21:763–774. doi:10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research is part of the following projects funded by the Tiber River Basin Authority for the assessment of the basin water balance: 1) “Development of a software for the simulation of the surface drainage network (2004–2006)”; 2) “Development of scenarios for the resource allocation in the water supply scheme managed by the Ente Irriguo Umbro-Toscano – Water Balance of the scheme (2007–2009)” 3) “Vulnerability of large water supply systems of the Tiber basin in relation to the occurrence of conditions of scarcity of water resources - Definition of a system of preventive measures and mitigation (2006–2009) ”.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Research Institute - National Research Council, Monterotondo, Italy

    E. Preziosi, A. Del Bon, E. Romano & A. B. Petrangeli

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy

    S. Casadei

Authors
  1. E. Preziosi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. A. Del Bon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. E. Romano
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. A. B. Petrangeli
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. S. Casadei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to E. Preziosi.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Preziosi, E., Del Bon, A., Romano, E. et al. Vulnerability to Drought of a Complex Water Supply System. The Upper Tiber Basin Case Study (Central Italy). Water Resour Manage 27, 4655–4678 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0434-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0434-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation