Abstract
This paper presents an inflow-forecasting model and a Piecewise Stochastic Dynamic Programming model (PSDP) to investigate the value of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) comprehensively. Recently medium-range quantitative precipitation forecasts are addressed to improve inflow forecasts accuracy. Revising the Ertan operation, a simple hydrological model is proposed to predict 10-day average inflow into the Ertan dam using GFS-QPFs of 10-day total precipitation during wet season firstly. Results show that the reduction of average absolute errors (ABE) is of the order of 15% and the improvement in other statistics is similar, compared with those from the currently used AR model. Then an improved PSDP is proposed to generate monthly or 10-day operating policies to incorporate forecasts with various lead-times as hydrologic state variables. Finally performance of the PSDP is compared with alternative SDP models to evaluate the value of the GFS-QPFs in hydropower generation. The simulation results demonstrate that including the GFS-QPFs is beneficial to the Ertan reservoir inflow forecasting and hydropower generation dispatch.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson ML, Chen ZQ, Kavvas M, Feldman A (2002) Coupling HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for prediction of watershed runoff. J Hydrol Eng 7:312–318
Bartholmes J, Todini E (2005) Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for flood forecasting. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9(4):333–346
Beven KJ (2001) Rainfall–runoff modeling. The primer. Wiley, Chichester, p 360
Bremicker M, Homagk P, Ludwig K (2006) Early warning and forecast of floods in Baden-Wurtemberg. Wasserwirtschaft 7–8:46–50
Collischonn W, Haas R, Andreolli I, Tucci CEM (2005) Forecasting River Uruguay flow using rainfall forecasts from a regional weather-prediction model. J Hydrol 305:87–98
Collischonn W, Tucci CEM, Clarke RT et al (2007) Medium-range reservoir inflow predictions based on quantitative precipitation forecasts. J Hydrol 344:112–122
Doswell CA, Davies-Jones R, David LK (1990) On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables. Weather Forecast 5:576–585
Goweleeuw BT, Thielen J, Franchello G, De Roo APJ, Buizza R (2005) Flood forecasting using medium-range probabilistic weather prediction. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9(4):365–380
GRIB (2008) NCEP WMO GRIB2 documentation. Available at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/grib2/
Habets F, LeMoigne P, Noilhan J (2004) On the utility of operational precipitation forecasts to served as input for streamflow forecasting. J Hydrol 293:270–288
Hashimoto T, Stedinger JR, Loucks DP (1982) Reliability,resiliency and vulnerability criteria for water resources system performance evaluation. Water Resour Res 18(1):14–20
Ibbitt RP, Henderson RD, Copeland J, Wratt DS (2000) Simulating mountain runoff with meso-scale weather model rainfall estimates: a New Zealand experience. J Hydrol 239:19–32
Jasper K, Gurtz J, Lang H (2002) Advanced flood forecasting in Alpine watersheds by coupling meteorological observations and forecasts with a distributed hydrological model. J Hydrol 267:40–52
Karamouz M, Vasiliadis HV (1992) Bayesian stochastic optimization of reservoir operation using uncertain forecasts. Water Resour Res 28(5):1221–1232
Kim YO, Palmer RN (1997) Value of seasonal flow forecasts in Bayesian stochastic programming. J Water Resour Plan Manage 123:327–335
Klemes V (1977) Discrete representation of storage for stochastic reservoir optimization. Water Resour Res 13(1):149–158
Koussis AD, Lagouvardos K, Mazi K, Kotroni V, Sitzmann D, Lang J, Zaiss H et al (2003) Flood forecasts for urban basin with integrated hydro-meteorological model. J Hydrol Eng 8(1):1–11
Krzysztofowicz R, Henry D (2001) Hydrologic uncertainty processor for probabilistic river stage forecasting: precipitation-dependent model. J Hydrol 249:46–68
Li PW, Lai EST (2004) Short-range quantitative precipitation forecasting in Hong Kong. J Hydrol 288:189–209
Maceira MEP, Damázio JM, Ghirardi AO, Dantas HM (1997) Use of periodic ARMA(p,q) models for weekly streamflow forecasts. In: Proceedings of the XII Brazilian water resources symposium, ABRH, Vitoria, ES
Mayer PL (1970) Introduction to probability and statistical applications. Oxford and IBH, New Delhi
McCuen RH (1998) Hydrologic analysis and design, 2nd edn. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Moore RJ, Bell VA, Jones DA (2005) Forecasting for flood warning. Compt Rendus Geosci 337:203–217
Pappenberger F,Beven KJ,Hunter NM, Bates PD et al (2005) Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall–runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS). Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9(4):381–393
Qiu RT, Wang BD, Zhou HC (2004) New idea for controlling the limited elevation of reservoirs in the flood season. Advances in Water Science 15(1):68–72
Rabuffetti D, Barbero S (2005) Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting: the Piemonte Region case study. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9(4):457–466
Reed S, Koren V et al (2004) Overall distributed model intercomparision project results. J Hydrol 298:27–60
Stedinger JR, Sule BE, Loucks DP (1984) Stochastic dynamic programming models for reservoir operation optimization. Water Resour Res 20(1 I):1499–1505
Sun NZ, Yang SL, Yeh WWG (1998) A proposed stepwise regression method for model structure identification. Water Resour Res 34(10):2561–2572
Suresh KR (2002) Modeling for irrigation reservoir operation. Ph.D. thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Tejada-Guibert JA, Hohson S, Stedinger JR (1995) The value of hydrologic information in stochastic dynamic programming models of a multi-reservoir system. Water Resour Res 31(10):2571–2579
Vijaykumar V, Rao BV, Mujumdar PP (1996) Optimal operation of a multibasin reservoir system. Sadhana 21(4):487–502
Wang BD, Zhu YY, Zhang GH, Zhou HC (2005) Feasibility analysis of applying 24 h precipitation forecasts from the Central Meteorological Observatory. Journal of China Hydrology 25(6):30–34
Yeh W (1985) Reservoir management and operation models: a state of the art review. Water Resour Res 21(12):1797–1818
Young GK (1967) Findings reservoir operating rules. J Hydraul Div Am Soc Civ Eng 93(HY6):297–321
Yu Z, Lakhtakia MN et al (1999) Simulating the river-basin response to atmospheric forcing by linking a mesoscale meteorological model and hydrologic model system. J Hydrol 218:72–91
Yuan JX, Wang BD, Wang FX, Li FW (2008) Study on real-time dynamic operation of reservoir level in flood season based on short-term rainfall forecast information. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering 27(4):15–19
Zhang HG, Guo SL, Li CQ (2006) Preliminary analysis of uncertainty in quantitative precipitation forecast of TGP reservoir interval area. Yangtze River 37(4):39–41
Zhou HC, Wang F et al (2009) Study on the runoff description and optimal operation models for Ertan hydropower station. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering 28(1):18–24
Zhu YJ (2007) Objective evaluation of global precipitation forecast. Available at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yzhu/gif/pub/Zhu_QPF_VRFY.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Tang, G., Zhou, H., Li, N. et al. Value of Medium-range Precipitation Forecasts in Inflow Prediction and Hydropower Optimization. Water Resour Manage 24, 2721–2742 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9576-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9576-1