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Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change

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Abstract

The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to present a generally applicable methodology to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected demand scenarios are considered explicitly by the models. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case study. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic parameters. The magnitude of the expected costs and the optimal investment policy are sensitive to projected population growth and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrologic Research Center, 12780 High Bluff Drive, Suite 250, San Diego, CA, 92130, USA

    Jeffrey K. O’Hara & Konstantine P. Georgakakos

  2. Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA

    Konstantine P. Georgakakos

Authors
  1. Jeffrey K. O’Hara
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  2. Konstantine P. Georgakakos
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Correspondence to Jeffrey K. O’Hara.

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O’Hara, J.K., Georgakakos, K.P. Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change. Water Resour Manage 22, 1477–1497 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9238-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9238-8

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