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Changes in the potential habitats of 10 dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago

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Abstract

Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change remains elusive in the species-rich Taiwan-Japan archipelago. We predicted potential habitats (PHs) of ten dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species by using the current and twenty potential climate change scenarios using generalised additive models. The presence/absence records of each species, extracted from vegetation database, were used as response variables. Four climatic and one spatial variables were used as explanatory variables. The results showed that the interaction terms of spatial variable, indicating historical range shifts or species interactions, restricted the distribution of all the target species as much as that by the each climatic variable. The PHs of all the target species were predicted to consistently increase, and in particular, to expand northward and upward to the cool temperate zone. However, the PHs were predicted to decrease within the range of 23.6–38.1 % in the Ryukyu Islands for Castanopsis sieboldii and Elaeocarpus japonica, respectively, and within the range of 32.4–42.3 % in Taiwan for Camellia japonica and Distylium racemosum, respectively. These findings suggest that the four species will be vulnerable at the southern range limits; however, the remaining six species will potentially increase within the PH areas in the future at all regions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Tomoki Nakaya, Hiroshi Daimaru and Etsuko Nakazono for valuable suggestions concerning the project. This research was supported by the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Plant Ecology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 1, Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan

    Katsuhiro Nakao & Tetsuya Matsui

  2. Laboratory of Plant Ecology, Faculty of Science, Kochi University, 2-5-1 Akebono-cho, Kochi, 780-8520, Japan

    Motoki Higa

  3. Hokkaido Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 7 Hitsujigaoka, Toyohira-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan

    Ikutaro Tsuyama & Nobuyuki Tanaka

  4. School of Forestry and Resource Conservation, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan

    Cheng-Tao Lin, Shih-To Sun, Jian-Rong Lin & Chyi-Rong Chiou

  5. Department of Natural Resources, National Ilan University, 1, Sec. 1, Shen-Lung Road, I-Lan, 260, Taiwan

    Tzu-Ying Chen

Authors
  1. Katsuhiro Nakao
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  2. Motoki Higa
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  3. Ikutaro Tsuyama
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  4. Cheng-Tao Lin
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  5. Shih-To Sun
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  6. Jian-Rong Lin
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  7. Chyi-Rong Chiou
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  8. Tzu-Ying Chen
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  9. Tetsuya Matsui
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  10. Nobuyuki Tanaka
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Correspondence to Katsuhiro Nakao.

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Communicated by Joy Nystrom Mast.

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Nakao, K., Higa, M., Tsuyama, I. et al. Changes in the potential habitats of 10 dominant evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the Taiwan-Japan archipelago. Plant Ecol 215, 639–650 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0329-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0329-8

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