Abstract
Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions are the largest driver of anthropogenic climate change. Approximately three-quarters of the world’s fossil fuels carbon dioxide emissions are generated in urban areas. We used the Hestia high resolution approach to quantify FFCO2 for Salt Lake County, Utah, USA and demonstrate the importance of high resolution quantification to urban emissions mitigation policymaking. We focus on the residential and onroad sectors across both urbanized and urbanizing parts of the valley. Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) regression models using sociodemographic data at the census block group level shows that population, per capita income, and building age exhibit positive relationships while household size shows a negative relationship with FFCO2 emissions. Compact development shows little effect on FFCO2 emissions in this domain. FFCO2 emissions in high income block groups is twice as sensitive to income than low income block groups. Emissions are four times as sensitive to household size in low-income versus high-income block groups. These results suggest that policy options targeting personal responsibility or knowledge feedback loops may be the most effective strategies. Examples include utility bill performance comparison or publicly available energy maps identifying high-emitting areas. Within the onroad sector, high emissions density (FFCO2/km) is associated with primary roads, while high emissions intensity (FFCO2/VMT) is associated with secondary roads. Opportunities exist for alignment of public transportation extension with remaining high emission road segments, offering a prioritization of new onroad transportation policy in Salt Lake County.
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Acknowledgements
This research was supported by grants from the Department of Energy DE-SC-001-0624, the National Science Foundation grant EF-01241286, National Institute of Standards and Technology grant 70NANB14H321, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office’s Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate Program grant NA14OAR4310178. We also would like to thank Jerome Zenger, Kevin Bell, and Semih Yildiz for assisting with the data collection and inquiry.
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Fig. S1
US Census block groups used in the regression analysis, a) low vs. high income block groups, b) block groups designated as within and outside Salt Lake City. The two outlier block groups are also noted. (GIF 77 kb)
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Fig. S2
Spatial distribution at the block group level for the independent variables used in the residential regression analysis. a) population (persons); b) housing units per capita (#/persons); c) housing units per area (#/sq.km); d) building age (years); e) income per capita (US$). Total FFCO2 emissions (dependent variable) are shown in Fig 2. (GIF 100 kb)
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Fig. S3
Probability density function for onroad FFCO2 emissions on primary roads in Salt Lake County disaggregated by the number of lanes. (GIF 67 kb)
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Patarasuk, R., Gurney, K.R., O’Keeffe, D. et al. Urban high-resolution fossil fuel CO2 emissions quantification and exploration of emission drivers for potential policy applications. Urban Ecosyst 19, 1013–1039 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-016-0553-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11252-016-0553-1