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Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle

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Abstract

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth’s surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

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Notes

  1. The designation of SPE is slightly ambiguous. Some authors use SPE to designate solar proton events while other authors use SPE to designate solar particle events. The abbreviation SEP is also frequently used to define either solar energetic protons or solar energetic particles. In this manuscript we use the term solar particles to include all particulate emissions from the Sun and SPE to designate solar proton events.

  2. The average solar wind plasma proton energy is approximately 1 keV; the average solar wind electron energy is approximately 100 eV.

  3. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/info/Glossary.html.

  4. White light solar flares are those visible in normal white light without benefit of special filters. Contemporary solar flare observations are chromospheric brightenings observable in the H-alpha line.

  5. In “normal” space weather events the major geomagnetic storm disruptions occur 1–2 days after the initial solar activity.

  6. We are considering only solar activity between 30 ∘E and 30 ∘W as “near solar central meridian”.

  7. Very small GLEs (<5 %) may have been missed during solar cycle 19 as there were no polar neutron monitors before the IGY (1957–1958).

  8. Kahler et al. (2012), provide a table of the GLEs in solar cycle 21–23 containing associated solar and CME data (when available).

  9. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/anomaly/doc/anom5j.xls.

  10. The radio astronomy unit “sfu” means solar flux units. One sfu equals 10−22 W m−2 Hz−1 (Castelli et al. 1973; Castelli and Guidice 1976).

  11. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/satellite/anomaly/doc/tdrs5j.xls.

  12. Available at http://www.gsf.de/epcard.

  13. Available at http://www.cami.jccbi.gov/AAM-600/610/600Radio.html.

  14. A flight level of 36,000 feet corresponds to 11 km in altitude and has an overhead atmospheric shielding mass of 217 gm cm−2.

  15. Copeland et al. (2008) compute the radiation dose for all the large GLEs that have occurred since 1986.

  16. The magnitude of the geomagnetic storm is very dependent upon the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field embedded in the plasma interacting with the Earth. A large and sustained southward interplanetary magnetic field results in the largest energy transfer into the magnetosphere, significant ring currents flowing in the magnetosphere and the largest geomagnetic storms.

  17. The radiation exposure due to galactic cosmic radiation at 40,000 feet varies from about 3 microSv hr−1 at equatorial latitudes to a range of ∼5 to 9 microSv hr−1 at polar latitudes depending on the phase of the solar cycle.

  18. The “alert” level for solar particle radiation is a radiation dose rate in excess of 20 microSv hr−1 (NCRP 1995).

  19. The CARI-6 estimates of the radiation dose at 40,000 feet under normal galactic cosmic radiation for this time period of the solar cycle on this flight path was 5.5 microSv hr−1.

  20. http://www.eurados.org.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Kyle Copeland and Wallace Friedberg of the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute, Federal Aviation Administration, Oklahoma City, for providing the radiation dose calculations in Table 4. We thank Professor Tsvetan Dachev for Figs. 6 and 7. Comments from C.S. Dyer and Nariaki Nitta as well as the two reviewers were very helpful. The neutron monitor data were provided by many groups. In particular we acknowledge the data provided by Professor Harm Moraal and data from the neutron monitors operated by the Bartol Research Institute. The Bartol neutron monitors are supported by the United States National Science Foundation under grants ANT-0739620 and ANT-0838839.

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  1. Emeritus, Air Force Research Laboratory (RVBXS), 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, Bedford, MA, 01731, USA

    M. A. Shea & D. F. Smart

  2. 100 Tennyson Avenue, Nashua, NH, 03062, USA

    M. A. Shea & D. F. Smart

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  1. M. A. Shea
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  2. D. F. Smart
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Correspondence to M. A. Shea.

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Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F. Space Weather and the Ground-Level Solar Proton Events of the 23rd Solar Cycle. Space Sci Rev 171, 161–188 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-012-9923-z

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