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The Short-Term Impact of Involuntary Migration in China’s Three Gorges: A Prospective Study

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to measure the short-term impact of involuntary migration resulting from China’s Three Gorges Dam project on the 1.3 million persons being displaced. We focus on the social, economic, and mental and physical health impact using three sets of indicators. Using a prospective research design, we gathered information about these indicators from a sample of migrants first before they moved and then again after they moved. Changes in the migrants’ wellbeing during the period, when benchmarked to corresponding changes computed for a control group of non-migrants, are attributed to the impact of involuntary migration. Our results showed that although the displaced have enjoyed a relative gain in housing quality, most of the changes were in the negative direction and many of such negative changes were statistically significant.

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Notes

  1. A review of Chinese literature by Feng (2006) counts 133 publications between 1994 and 2003.

  2. The compensation is determined by a complex formula involving many factors such as location, size, quality, and types of land that would be submerged, size and quality of house, and transportation costs (Li et al. 2001; Yue 2007) and therefore is very unequal. It is also generally inadequate because it was based on dated assessed values without inflation adjustment instead of replacement costs.

  3. This includes second-hand reading of a large volume of Chinese writings reviewed in these studies but is not easily accessible to English readers.

  4. For example, only 58% of the displaced in our sample are resettled in a nearby location, the rest of them must either move to a distant location within the same county (17%), a different county (14%), or out of the Province (11%).

  5. Designated migrants are those who lived below the 175 m above the sea level line, a line demarcating the area that would be flooded upon completion of the project. Families which lived above the line were not required to move.

  6. The recapture rate for migrants was slightly worse (67%). Based on pre-migration survey, the missed migrants were similar to total sample in terms of sex composition, average measures of age, education attainment, household income, social support and subjective health, but a slightly higher CESD.

  7. We did include the designated migrants who had not moved as a separate group and compute the DID scores using non-migrants as the comparison group in an early version of the paper, all but one DID score were insignificant.

  8. Our accessibility to essentials scale has a Cronbach’s α of .84 for the pre-migration survey and .88 for the post-migration survey.

  9. The CES-D scale has a Cronbach’s α of .87 and .89 for the pre- and post-migration survey, respectively. The corresponding measures for the social support scale are .84 and .88.

  10. The exacting wordings of the three questions are: (1) Do you feel that you have made a personal sacrifice for the Three Gorges Project? (2) If it were entirely up to you to decide, would you be (a) willing to move or (b) rather not move? (3) All in all, would you say that the Three Gorges Project has done (a) more harm than good, (b) more good than harm, or (c) roughly the same amount of harm and good, to your family?

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Correspondence to Yue Cao.

Appendix

Appendix

See Table 7.

Table 7 Operationalization of Variables used in Tables 2, 3, 4

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Hwang, SS., Cao, Y. & Xi, J. The Short-Term Impact of Involuntary Migration in China’s Three Gorges: A Prospective Study. Soc Indic Res 101, 73–92 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-010-9636-1

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