Abstract
This study provides new evidence on the performance consequences of operational restructurings. Although managers claim that restructurings increase the efficiency and profitability of companies, prior studies reached mixed conclusions regarding the post-restructuring operational effectiveness of these events. Our evidence is consistent with the following conclusions. First, restructuring firms appear to perform better in reporting earnings relative to analysts’ forecasts after restructuring. Second, the ability of firms to meet or beat analysts’ forecasts after restructuring appears to be related to real performance improvements after restructuring. Consistent with that conclusion, we find substantial restructuring-related increases in both pre-managed earnings and operating cash flows. Overall, our results are consistent with suggestions of management that restructurings are undertaken to improve operating efficiency over the long term.
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Notes
We define a restructuring charge as costs associated with downsizing (i.e., employee termination costs, plant closings, lease termination costs and other similar exit-related activities).
In addition, Matsunaga and Park (2001) report that CEOs are rewarded with additional compensation for beating analysts’ earnings forecast.
We are not proposing that all firms should or would consider restructuring, or that firms should restructure simply to improve their likelihood of meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts. The very nature of a restructuring implies that restructuring firms have typically experienced poor firm performance and poor stock performance (Francis et al. 1996). Furthermore, a decision to restructure would be the product of an extensive decision process considering multiple factors.
Moehrle identifies 121 firms with a “restructuring reversal” in the 10 year period 1990–1999. Similarly, we identify 197 observations that report a restructuring charge reversal on the face of the income statement in any of the 3 years subsequent to the restructuring year. The form of reversal examined by Moehrle is exactly how a firm is required to treat a reversal. That is, the reversal, if material, is required to be placed on the income statement in a manner consistent with the original restructuring charge except the amount is a reduction of operating expenses (income-increasing). For example, see the Apple Computer 1994 income statement where Apple recognizes a restructuring charge of $320 million in 1993 and reported a reversal of $127 million in 1994.
Moehrle (2002) finds that the likelihood of meeting or beating analysts’ expectations increases in the year of restructuring charge reversals. We find an increase in the propensity of restructuring firms to meet or beat analysts’ forecasts subsequent to the restructuring even after we eliminate all firms that recognize an income increasing “restructuring reversal” on their income statement.
Anecdotal and empirical evidence suggests that managers are not mere passive observers in the process of meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts. Rather, managers are active players in this process by altering reported earnings numbers (McGee 1997; Vickers 1999; Richardson 2000; Matsumoto 2002; Bartov et al. 2002; Stewart 2002; Koh et al. 2008). Former SEC Commissioner Norman S. Johnson expressed concern over this issue citing “the pressure imposed on management to meet analysts’ earnings estimates” as the single most important cause of earnings management (Utah State Bar Mid-Year Convention, March 6, 1999).
SFAS 146 Accounting for Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. SFAS 146 superseded EITF 94-3 Liability Recognition for Certain Employee Termination Benefits and Other Costs to Exit an Activity (including Certain Costs Incurred in a Restructuring).
The SEC concluded that in 1992 Borden classified $192 million of marketing expenses as part of a restructuring charge when it should have been included in selling, general, and administrative expenses.
The cumulative effect is subject to measurement error but follows directly from the Burgstahler et al. (2002) analysis.
Johnson et al. (2011) report that over 35 % of all firms report a negative special item for every year after 2000.
Examples of the SEC’s increased interest in restructurings date back several years (for example, see “The Numbers Game” speech by former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, New York University Law School September 28, 1998). In 1999, the Office of the Chief Accountant published SAB 100 that addressed issues related to accounting for restructuring charges.
Moehrle (2002) provides evidence that firms record reversals of restructuring charge accruals to avoid earnings declines and beat analysts’ forecasts. Both Chaney et al. (1999) and Clement et al. (2007) provide evidence consistent with the notion that restructurings increase uncertainty for analysts when forecasting future earnings.
After Motorola Inc. reported its fifteenth consecutive quarter with a non-recurring charge, Vivian Mamelak, a senior analyst at Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Inc. stated, “If a company has taken 14 consecutive quarters of special charges, these charges aren't special, they're a normalized cost of Motorola doing business.” (Wall Street Journal, “Motorola Profit: ‘Special’ Again?", October 15, 2002).
To perform this analysis, we eliminated 338 quarterly observations with a positive value for restructurings (i.e., a restructuring charge reversal).
Prior research suggests that firms with negative forecast revisions most often report a negative earnings surprise in that same quarter. Although it is true that a negative revision makes it more likely that firms with bad news for the quarter will be able to report a positive earnings surprise, the fact is these same firms most often end up reporting a negative earnings surprise (e.g., Caylor et al. 2007). Thus, our finding of a negative coefficient on Down_Rev is not unexpected.
Our results in this section appear to conflict with the findings of Chaney et al. (1999). In their study, Chaney et al. (1999) rely on a sample of restructuring firms for the years 1987 to 1992. They report that the mean and median earnings surprises (i.e., unexpected earnings) for the year following the restructuring are negative. However, there are two things about our tests that lead to different results and conclusions. First, prior research suggests a difference in the reporting of earnings relative to forecasts around 1994 (see Lopez and Rees 2002). Prior to 1994 earnings surprises tended to be, on average, optimistic, a finding consistent with the findings in Chaney et al. (1999). However, after 1994 earnings surprises tend to be pessimistic (more positive surprises). In fact, in more recent years over 70 % of firms report earnings surprises that are non-negative. Second, our tests look at the impact of restructurings on the frequency of meeting and beating forecasts. Chaney et al. (1999) provide no evidence on this question. Although they report that earnings surprises after the restructuring are negative, that does not exclude the possibility that more firms meet or beat their forecasts after restructuring. Finally, the enactment of SFAS 146 may, at least in part, account for the difference in results. All of the observations examined by Chaney et al. (1999) are pre-SFAS 146 while all of our observations are post-SFAS 146.
Lin and Yang (2006) report evidence which suggests that analysts respond differently to firms that report repeat restructurings. We address this in two ways. First, we include a repeat restructuring measure in our propensity score procedure. Second, we rerun our Tables 2, 4 and 5 tests on a subset of firms that report no restructurings over the year prior to the event quarter. The results of these additional tests (not tabulated) are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to our tabulated results.
Since the dependent variables in equations (2) are change measures, to determine the income and cash flow effect of the SRC in years beyond y = 1, the SRC coefficients must be evaluated with respect to the coefficients for the prior year. For example, in year 1 the coefficient on SRC in the Σ4A∆PTI_DA y estimation of Eq. (2) is 1.235 suggesting that income increases in year +1 relative to the year prior to quarter t by 23.5 % of the restructuring charge (a coefficient of −1 implies the restructuring charge is transitory). That 23.5 % increase is in pre-tax income (PTI i ) in year +1. In year +2 the coefficient on SRC is 0.884 suggesting that restructuring charge-induced income increased in year +2 relative to year +1 by 88.4 % of the restructuring charge. Since earnings in year +1 are higher by 23.5 % of the restructuring charge, the total effect is that earnings increased in year +2 by 111.9 (23.5 + 88.4) % of the quarter t restructuring charge relative to pre-restructuring charge earnings. The 111.9 % is the amount we discuss in the text as the annual increase in year +2 earnings. This same procedure holds for calculating the cash flow change attributable to the restructuring charge since this is also a seasonally adjusted measure. The only difference with respect to cash flows is there is no necessary reversal of restructuring charges in cash flows for the first subsequent year as there is in earnings. Thus, any negative coefficient on SRC in year +1 implies an increase in cash flow (as discussed above for earnings the positive coefficient on SRC in year +1 must be greater than one to imply an increase in earnings) (Burgstahler et al. 2002).
Relying on the other two measures of ∆PTI our results suggest that the future restructuring-induced increases to earnings are in excess of 350 % of the restructuring charge.
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Acknowledgments
We are grateful to Thomson Financial for providing earnings forecast data, available through the Institutional Brokers Estimate System. These data have been provided as a part of their broad academic program to encourage earnings expectation research.
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Appendix
Appendix
We use propensity score matching to match restructuring firms with non-restructuring firms. We use the following probit regression to calculate the propensity of each firm to undertake a restructuring:
whereRCD = 1 if firm has a current period restructuring charge and 0 if firm does not have a restructuring charge in the current quarter or any of the previous four quarters; IND_HISTORY = mean value of HISTORY for all firms in firm i’s industry.
All other variables are previously defined. We apply this probit regression to each calendar quarter, and we match each restructuring firm to a non-restructuring firm in the same calendar quarter with the closest propensity score (i.e., predicted value). Table 9 reports the mean coefficients from each of the calendar quarter probit regressions.
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Hill, M.S., Johnson, P.M., Liu, K.X.T. et al. Operational restructurings: where’s the beef?. Rev Quant Finan Acc 45, 721–755 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-014-0453-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-014-0453-5
Keywords
- Analysts
- Earnings management
- Analysts’ forecasts
- Market efficiency
- Restructuring charges
- Operating performance