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Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand

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Abstract

This study provides a flexible and mathematically precise method for forecasting tourism demand from all five continents of the globe to Taiwan and with potential to assist tourism operators and government officials in improving their management planning and strategy. This investigation applied the Grey Envelop Prediction Model (GEPM) to predict international passenger arrivals to Taiwan. The analysis result shows monthly, seasonal and annual predictions. The prediction values of international tourist numbers can answer the practical needs of managers, owners, and government departments and help in operational and management strategy development. The contributions of this study is provides an effective method for forecasting number of international visitors, and the result provided the flexible, accurate, and efficient interval predicted values used by researchers, mangers and administrators for developing manpower, finance, marketing, and administrative decision-making schemes.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology, 168 Jifong E. R., Wufong Township, Taichung County, 41349, Taiwan, ROC

    Ya-Ling Huang

  2. Graduate School of Management, Ming Chuan University, 250 Zhong Shan North Road, Section 5, Taipei, 111, Taiwan, ROC

    Chin-Tsai Lin

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  1. Ya-Ling Huang
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  2. Chin-Tsai Lin
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Correspondence to Chin-Tsai Lin.

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Huang, YL., Lin, CT. Developing an interval forecasting method to predict undulated demand. Qual Quant 45, 513–524 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-010-9317-9

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