Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament

  • Published:
Public Choice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This article builds and estimates several econometric models that explain and forecast the outcomes of the French elections for the European Parliament. These models show the influence of the change in the local unemployment rate to explain the vote for the moderate Left and the moderate Right in the French elections for the European Parliament. These models appear to be accurate in forecasting the elections of the past, and their behavior for the 2009 French election for the European Parliament is satisfactory.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abramowitz, A. I. (2008). It’s about time: forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model. International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 209–217.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auberger, A. (2005). Forecasts of the 2004 French European election. Swiss Political Science Review, 11, 61–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auberger, A. (2010). Popularity and vote: forecasting the 2007 French presidential election. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 43, 123–136.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auberger, A., & Dubois, E. (2005). The influence of local and national economic conditions on French legislative elections. Public Choice, 125, 363–383.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dubois, E. (2002). Un modèle de prévision par département pour les élections présidentielles françaises. Working Paper. University of Paris I, LAEP.

  • Fair, R. C. (1978). The effect of economic events on votes for president. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 60, 159–173.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fair, R. C. (1996). Econometrics and presidential elections. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 89–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fauvelle-Aymar, C., Lafay, J. D., & Servais, M. (2000). The impact of turnout on electoral choices: an econometric analysis of the French case. Electoral Studies, 19, 393–412.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46, 1251–1271.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hibbs, D. A., Jr. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policies and outcomes in the United States. American Political Science Review, 71, 1467–1487.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data (2nd ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V., & Lewis-Beck, M. S. (2003). Reordering the French election calendar: forecasting the consequences for 2002. European Journal of Political Research, 42, 425–440.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Key, V. O., Jr. (1966). The responsible electorate. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kramer, G. H. (1971). Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964. American Political Science Review, 65, 131–143.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1997). Who’s the chef? Economic voting under a dual executive. European Journal of Political Research, 31, 315–325.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M. S., & Nadeau, R. (2000). French electoral institutions and the economic vote. Electoral Studies, 19, 171–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis-Beck, M., Nadeau, R., & Bélanger, E. (2004). General election forecasts in the United Kingdom: a political economy model. Electoral Studies, 23, 279–290.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madsen, H. (1980). Electoral outcomes and macro-economic policies: the Scandinavian cases. In P. Whiteley (Ed.), Models of political economy (pp. 15–46). London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marsh, M. (1998). Testing the second-order election model after four European elections. British Journal of Political Science, 28, 591–607.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mueller, D. (2003). Public choice III. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Paldam, M. (1981). A preliminary survey of the theories and findings on vote and popularity functions. European Journal of Political Research, 9, 181–199.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second order national elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8, 3–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stigler, G. J. (1973). Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896–1964. American Economic Review, 63, 131–143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. LARGEPA-IRGEI, University of Paris II, 7 rue de la grande chaumière, 75006, Paris, France

    Antoine Auberger

  2. Maison des Sciences Economiques, CES, University of Paris I, 106-112, bd de l’Hôpital, 75647, Paris cedex 13, France

    Antoine Auberger

Authors
  1. Antoine Auberger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Antoine Auberger.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Auberger, A. Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament. Public Choice 153, 329–340 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9796-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-011-9796-9

Keywords

JEL Classification

Search

Navigation