Abstract
With technological advances, collection of intensive longitudinal data (ILD), such as ecological momentary assessments, becomes more widespread in prevention science. In ILD studies, researchers are often interested in the effects of time-varying covariates (TVCs) on a time-varying outcome to discover correlates and triggers of target behaviors (e.g., how momentary changes in affect relate to momentary smoking urges). Traditional analytical methods, however, impose important constraints, assuming a constant effect of the TVC on the outcome. In the current paper, we describe a time-varying effect model (TVEM) and its applications to data collected as part of a smoking-cessation study. Differentiating between groups of short-term successful quitters (N = 207) and relapsers (N = 40), we examine the effects of momentary negative affect and abstinence self-efficacy on the intensity of smoking urges in each subgroup in the 2 weeks following a quit attempt. Successful quitters demonstrated a rapid reduction in smoking urges over time, a gradual decoupling of the association between negative affect and smoking urges, and a consistently strong negative effect of self-efficacy on smoking urges. In comparison, relapsers exhibited a high level of smoking urges throughout the post-quit period, a time-varying and, generally, weak effect of self-efficacy on smoking urges, and a gradual reduction in the strength of the association between negative affect and smoking urges. Implications of these findings are discussed. The TVEM is made available to applied prevention researchers through a SAS macro.
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Notes
It is possible to include a binary indicator of relapse status in a single model for smoking urges. In the current study, however, our goal was to describe the entire system of time-varying relations within each group. By fitting separate models, we essentially allowed relapse state to moderate every aspect of the TVEM.
The time-varying effect of gender was tested for both groups. For relapsers, the overall effect was zero. For successful quitters, a model with three knots fit best, although the overall effect was very small. Specifically, the non-zero relation between gender and intensity of smoking urges did not emerge until day 10, with women reporting urges about .2 points higher than men.
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Author Note
The authors would like to thank Linda Collins, John Dziak, Charu Mathur, C.J. Powers, and Violet (Shu) Xu for comments on earlier drafts of this manuscript, and Amanda Applegate for her editorial suggestions. The work of Shiyko, Lanza, Tan, & Li was supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse grant P50 DA010075-14 and R21 DA024260. The work of Shiffman was supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse grant DA06084. The content of this manuscript is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute on Drug Abuse or the National Institutes of Health.
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Shiyko, M.P., Lanza, S.T., Tan, X. et al. Using the Time-Varying Effect Model (TVEM) to Examine Dynamic Associations between Negative Affect and Self Confidence on Smoking Urges: Differences between Successful Quitters and Relapsers. Prev Sci 13, 288–299 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-011-0264-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-011-0264-z