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Simulating the impacts of household travel on greenhouse gas emissions, urban air quality, and population exposure

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Abstract

This paper establishes a link between an activity-based model for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), dynamic traffic assignment, emission modelling, and air quality simulation. This provides agent-based output that allows vehicle emissions to be tracked back to individuals and households who are producing them. In addition, roadway emissions are dispersed and the resulting ambient air concentrations are linked with individual time-activity patterns in order to assess population exposure to air pollution. This framework is applied to evaluate the effects of a range of policy interventions and 2031 scenarios on the generation of vehicle emissions and greenhouse gases in the GTA. Results show that the predicted increase of approximately 2.6 million people and 1.3 million jobs in the region by 2031 compared to 2001 levels poses a major challenge in achieving meaningful reductions in GHGs and air pollution.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded by a Transport Canada TPMI grant, as well as by contributions from the Ontario Ministries of Transportation and Public Infrastructure Renewal and the City of Toronto. This research was conducted while the first author was a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Toronto.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics, McGill University, 817 Sherbrooke St. W., Room 492, Montreal, QC, H3A 2K6, Canada

    Marianne Hatzopoulou

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto, 35 St George Street, Toronto, ON, M5S 1A4, Canada

    Jiang Y. Hao

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Director Cities Centre, University of Toronto, 455 Spadina Ave, Suite 400, Toronto, ON, M5S 2G8, Canada

    Eric J. Miller

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  1. Marianne Hatzopoulou
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  2. Jiang Y. Hao
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  3. Eric J. Miller
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Correspondence to Marianne Hatzopoulou.

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Hatzopoulou, M., Hao, J.Y. & Miller, E.J. Simulating the impacts of household travel on greenhouse gas emissions, urban air quality, and population exposure. Transportation 38, 871–887 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-011-9362-9

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