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China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

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Abstract

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

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Fig. 1

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Statistical Yearbook 2016, Beijing: China Statistics Press

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Sources: National Health Commission of China (2013).

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Sources: National Health Commission of China (2013).

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Notes

  1. Dandu couples are defined as those in which one spouse is an only child.

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Acknowledgements

Funding was provided by National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science (Grant No. 18CRK011).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Central University of Finance and Economics, No. 39 South College Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100081, People’s Republic of China

    Xianling Zhang

  2. Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Fei Guo

  3. Renmin University of China, No. 59 Zhongguancun Street, Haidian District, Beijing, 100872, People’s Republic of China

    Zhenwu Zhai

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  1. Xianling Zhang
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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 4, 5.

Table 4 Population age structure in base year (2016)
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Table 5 Assumptions of TFR, SRB, and life expectancy for population projections
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Zhang, X., Guo, F. & Zhai, Z. China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy. Popul Res Policy Rev 38, 537–563 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-019-09519-0

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