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Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born

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Abstract

We investigate the level and selectivity of emigration from the United States among foreign-born adults. We use the CPS Matching Method (Van Hook et al. 2006) to estimate the probability of emigration among foreign-born adults aged 18–34, 35–64 and 65+ from 1996 to 2009 (N = 92,852). The results suggest higher levels of emigration than used in the production of official population estimates. Also, indicators of economic integration (home ownership, school enrollment, poverty) and social ties in the U.S. (citizenship, having young children, longer duration in the United States) deter emigration. Conversely, having connections with the sending society, such as living apart from a spouse, was associated with emigration, particularly among Mexican men. Health was least strongly related to emigration. Simulations suggest that selective emigration may alter the home ownership and marital status, but not health, composition of immigrant cohorts. The implications for public policy are discussed.

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Notes

  1. The logistic regression models include a wide range of predictor variables, including age, sex, ethnic origin, education, marital status, household composition, year, month-in-sample, self-reported health, home ownership, and poverty status.

  2. For example, a person at year t can be no more than 2 years younger than the matched case in year t + 1.

  3. The proportion of a cohort that emigrated (px) after x years with an annual emigration rate of e is: px = 1 − (1 − e)x.

  4. These estimates satisfy two constraints: that 0.66/1.08 = 0.61, and that the weighted average emigration rate = 1% (0.2 * 0.66 + 0.8 * 1.08 = 1).

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the support of the U.S. Census Bureau, Sabre Systems, Inc., and the Department for Homeland Security. This research was also supported through infrastructure grants to the Population Research Institute at the Pennsylvania State University by the National Institutes of Health.

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  1. Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Jennifer Van Hook

  2. Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

    Weiwei Zhang

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Correspondence to Jennifer Van Hook.

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Van Hook, J., Zhang, W. Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born. Popul Res Policy Rev 30, 1–24 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-010-9183-0

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