Abstract
We describe displacement dynamics in Louisiana approximately 1 year after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Policy-makers and service-providers require a more detailed understanding of displacement in order to provide for geographically dispersed populations. Census estimates of net change are often insufficient because they fail to capture the broad range of movement of people. Therefore, we draw upon original data to more fully describe patterns of movement across and within parish lines in southern Louisiana. The 2006 Louisiana Health and Population Survey (LHPS) was commissioned by the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and the Louisiana Recovery Authority to provide information on population dispersion and related health characteristics in and around hurricane-affected regions. Our paper utilizes this unique dataset to describe three distinct dimensions of displacement dynamics: in-migration, out-migration, and intra-parish movement. These displacement dynamics add important correctives to the broader “net effects” commonly cited in media reports of population changes, which vastly understate the extent of displacement in the region.
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Notes
These school enrollment-based estimates were used by the LRA and the LaDHH in planning, despite the recognition that this method of using the proportion of public school enrollment/total population resulted in a very rough estimate (Schafer 2006).
These figures are household population (excluding group quarter population).
Our analysis utilized the 2006 LHPS—Controlled Weights (Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and Louisiana Recovery Authority 2006).
The information about the inhabitable housing units was not collected.
Despite our assumption that Calcasieu and Vermilion could be buffer parishes, we did not find sufficient number of in-migrants into Calcasieu and Vermilion, therefore those parishes were not included.
Total net migration for county-level is estimated from net domestic migration and net international migration. In order to estimate net domestic migration, the Census Bureau uses Federal income tax return data obtained from Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to calculate net domestic migration rates and applies these rates to the domestic migration base under age 65. For population age 65 and older, Medicare enrollment data obtained from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Service (CMS) are used instead of IRS tax return data. Since 2006 estimates, the modification was made to take into account the impact of Hurricane Katrina and Rita in 2005, and data from the U.S. Postal Services’ National Change of Address (NCOA) are used for the affected areas as a supplement. Meanwhile, net international migration estimates involve four components: net international migration of the foreign born, net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, emigration of natives from the United States, and net movement of the Armed Forces population. For Louisiana parishes, international migration has very small impact on the population, and the larger part of population change comes from domestic migration. For the details of the methodology, see http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology/2007-st-co-meth.html (State and County Total Resident Population Estimates) and http://www.census.gov/popest/topics/methodology/2007-hurr-spcl-meth.html (Special Processing Hurricanes Katrina and Rita).
These trends are derived using a combination of sources including (a) the City of New Orleans Rapid Population Surveys in October 2005 and January 2006, (b) the school enrollment-based estimates for Plaquemines and St. Bernard parishes, and (c) the 2006 Louisiana Health and Population Survey.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the Louisiana Recovery Authority for allowing us to use the survey data for this paper. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 2008 annual meetings of the Population Association of America, held in New Orleans. We also thank the Editor and the anonymous reviewers of Population Research and Policy Review for insightful comments.
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Hori, M., Schafer, M.J. & Bowman, D.J. Displacement Dynamics in Southern Louisiana After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Popul Res Policy Rev 28, 45–65 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-008-9118-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-008-9118-1