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Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

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Abstract

This investigation evaluates the effect of Hurricane Mitch on women’s reproductive outcomes throughout Nicaragua. This research aim is achieved by analyzing a unique Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Study panel dataset that tracks women’s fertility immediately before and at two time points after Hurricane Mitch, combined with satellite-derived municipality-level precipitation data for the 10-day storm period. Results show higher odds of post-disaster fertility in municipalities receiving higher precipitation levels in the immediate post-Hurricane Mitch period. However, fertility normalizes between disaster and non-disaster areas 4 to 6 years after the storm. These findings suggest that the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Mitch can have an initial stimulative effect on fertility but that effect is ephemeral.

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Notes

  1. To clarify, even though the medium-term post-Hurricane Mitch fertility period assessed is 5 to 7 years after the storm, the actual effect period is 4 to 6 years post-Hurricane Mitch when accounting for the 9-month conception to birth period.

  2. Conceptually, to maintain as large a sample size as possible from which to calculate TFRs and ASFRs and given no justifiable reason to exclude women lost to follow-up in these calculations, all reproductive-aged women by study year (1998, 2001, and 2005) were evaluated. This differs from the subset of reproductive-aged women—accounting for women lost to follow-up—that were used in the respective longitudinal logistic regression findings displayed in Table 3.

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Acknowledgements

I wish to thank Manuel Hernandez for the creation of the Hurricane Mitch rainfall intensity variable and Lauren Gaydosh and Elizabeth Lawrence for their invaluable comments during the drafting of this manuscript. Funding for this research was provided by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development under a Pathway to Independence Award (K99 HD079586), a Population Research Training grant (T32 HD007168), and the Population Research Infrastructure Program (P2C HD050924) awarded to the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

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  1. Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC, 27516-2524, USA

    Jason Davis

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Correspondence to Jason Davis.

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Davis, J. Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua. Popul Environ 38, 448–464 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-017-0271-5

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