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In-Group Love and Out-Group Hate: White Racial Attitudes in Contemporary U.S. Elections

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, political scientists have demonstrated that racial animus among white Americans is increasingly associated with evaluations of presidential candidates. Like most work on white racial attitudes, these efforts have focused almost exclusively on the out-group attitudes whites possess toward racial and ethnic minorities. Work in social psychology, however, suggests that intergroup attitudes are usually comprised of both an out-group and an in-group component. Nevertheless, political scientists have tended to overlook or dismiss the possibility that whites’ in-group attitudes are associated with political evaluations. Changing demographic patterns, immigration, the historic election of Obama, and new candidate efforts to appeal to whites as a collective group suggest a need to reconsider the full nature and consequences of the racial attitudes that may influence whites’ electoral preferences. This study, therefore, examines the extent to which both white out-group racial resentment and white in-group racial identity matter in contemporary electoral politics. Comparing the factors associated with vote choice in 2012 and 2016, and candidate evaluations in 2018, this study finds that both attitudes were powerfully associated with candidate evaluations in 2012 and early 2016, although white out-group attitudes overshadowed the electoral impact of in-group racial attitudes by the 2016 general election. The results suggest that there are now two independent racial attitudes tied to whites’ political preferences in the contemporary U.S., and understanding the dynamics of white racial animus and white racial identity across electoral contexts continues to be an important avenue for future work.

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Fig. 1

Source 2012 ANES

Fig. 2

Source 2012 ANES (face-to-face)

Fig. 3

Source 2016 ANES Pilot Study

Fig. 4

Source 2016 ANES (face-to-face)

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Notes

  1. Criticisms of racial resentment are largely rooted in whether racial resentment is truly capturing racial animus, or if instead it is conflating racism with ideological conservatism (Sniderman and Carmines 1997).

  2. Work in sociology has examined the concepts of whiteness and white identity through a very different lens. It has either treated white identity as an implicit attitude (Knowles and Peng 2005), considered whiteness as part of a system of racial inequality (e.g., Guess 2006), or has explored white identity as a progressive reckoning with racial inequality as part of a move toward social justice (Helms 1995). None of this work recognizes white in-group attitudes as I do here, and in a way that is in keeping with a social identity framework—as an explicit psychological attachment to a group that influences explicit attitudes and behavior.

  3. When Wong and Cho (2005) undertook their study of white identity, the closeness items were the best proximate measure of identity available on a nationally representative public opinion survey. Scholars have previously argued, however, that the closeness measure captures group affect, rather than identity (Conover 1984; Herring et al. 1999).

  4. See Sumner’s theory of ethnocentrism (1906), Blumer’s group position theory (1958), and power theory (Blalock 1967; Key 1949).

  5. Much of the work on the reaction of dominant groups to status threat has focused on the relationship between in-group identity and subsequent out-group derogation (Branscombe et al. 1999; Glaser 1994; Oliver and Mendelberg 2000). A multitude of studies across the social sciences have demonstrated that identity threat can promote out-group derogation, although the relationship is not inevitable (e.g., Branscombe et al. 1999; Brewer 1999; Gibson 2006).

  6. In keeping with these expectations, Schildkraut (2015) finds that whites with higher levels of racial identity are more likely to say they prefer political candidates who are white, and Petrow et al. (2018) find that high white identifiers are less supportive of black candidates.

  7. Near the end of August 2015, immigration reform was the only issue on Trump’s campaign website: https://web.archive.org/web/20150824010152/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions.

  8. Several scholars and pundits have argued that immigration poses a risk to white American culture (Brimelow 1996; Buchanan 2011; Huntington 2004).

  9. Winter (2006) argues that political elites intentionally framed such policies as benefits for “hard work” to contrast them with prevailing negative racialized stereotypes about welfare, which has been associated with unearned handouts.

  10. Replication files for all the analyses presented here are available on my personal website at www.ashleyjardina.com.

  11. To avoid possible discrepancies across survey modes, I use only the face-to-face ANES samples.

  12. YouGov maintains a panel comprised of a diverse population of respondents who volunteer to complete online surveys. Respondents are selected into the panel by sample matching, which effectively creates a respondent pool resembling the U.S. population with respect to gender, age, race, and education. The analysis here employs probability weights (Rivers 2006).

  13. The measure of white consciousness developed by Jardina and employed by scholars like Sides et al. (2018) has the benefit of being comprised of several survey questions. However, many of the items used to construct the consciousness measure arguably incorporate in-group and out-group attitudes. For instance, one item asks respondents whether they think whites are being denied jobs because employers are hiring minorities instead. Thus, using them would not provide as clean of a test of the relationship between whites’ in-group and out-group racial attitudes as proposed here.

  14. There are other measures of group solidarity, including linked fate. Dawson (2009) finds that white linked fate is unrelated to identity as conceived here. In fact, it is associated with more liberal positions on racialized policies. Furthermore, other work argues that linked fate may not mean the same thing for non-blacks as it does for blacks (Hochschild and Weaver 2015; Sanchez and Vargas 2016). Thus, I do not use the linked fate measure in analysis.

  15. Because most of the ANES studies measure white identity and vote choice or candidate evaluations on the same survey waves, I account for the possibility that the measurement of white identity is influenced by these other items by also replicating the results from my 2016 analysis using a two-wave study fielded by YouGov in which white identity was measured on wave 1 and vote choice was measured on wave 2.

  16. The distributions of racial resentment and white identity across the four surveys can be found in Online Appendix Fig. A1 and Table A1, respectively.

  17. A race-of-interviewer variable was not avaialble for the 2016 ANES Time Series study at the time of this analysis.

  18. Results from the model are presented in table form in Online Appendix Table A2.

  19. Following Kinder and Kalmoe (2017), I do not include political ideology in my main model specification given concerns that ideology often does not capture a meaningful set of attitudes. In Online Appendix Table A2, however, I show that my results are robust to controlling for ideology. I also demonstrate that the effects of white identity on vote choice are robust to controlling for other racial out-group attitudes, including the traditional anti-black stereotype index (as well as evaluations of two other salient racial and ethnic out-groups—Hispanics and Muslims—captured using 101-point thermometer items). Furthermore, I show that the results hold even after controlling for attitudes toward immigration—an issue that has become central to partisan politics in recent years, and which was deeply tied to Trump support (Abrajano and Hajnal 2015; Reny et al. 2019).

  20. The New York Times compiled a list of Trump’s racist rhetoric and behavior: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/15/opinion/leonhardt-trump-racist.html.

  21. In August of 2016, Forbes magazine noted that Clinton and Trump both promised to protect Social Security and Medicare https://www.forbes.com/sites/nextavenue/2016/08/08/social-security-where-clinton-and-trump-stand/#57c7c7e31904.

  22. Some might wonder whether Cruz and Rubio, by way of their Hispanic ethnicity, might activate whites’ negative racial attitudes. This hypothesis is certainly possible, but both candidates notoriously down-play their ethnicity, meaning it might not have been especially salient to most voters.

  23. In 2016, NPR published an article outlining Trump, Rubio, and Cruz’s positions on Social Security at https://www.npr.org/2016/03/12/470130961/fact-check-republican-candidates-on-keeping-or-changing-social-security.

  24. Online Appendix Tables A3.1–A3.5 demonstrate the model’s robustness to inclusion of ideology and other out-group attitudes. The one exception is that the inclusion of the anti-Black stereotype index attenuates the relationship between white ID and Trump evaluations, but this effect is not surprising given that prior work has shown that the stereotype index is itself comprised of both in-group and out-group evaluations (Jardina 2019a, b).

  25. Respondents were asked whether they preferred Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, another candidate, or none.

  26. Appendix Table A4 presents the full estimation results and demonstrates the robustness of these results to including ideology, attitudes toward immigrants, and other measures of racial out-group attitudes.

  27. Results of the full model are presented in appendix Table A5, which also demonstrates the robustness of the results to controls for ideology, other out-group attitudes, and immigration opinion.

  28. I replicated these results using a two-wave panel study fielded by the survey firm YouGov. Wave 1 was fielded in October 2016, before the presidential election, and wave 2 was fielded after the election in November of 2016. White identity was measured on wave 1, and candidate evaluations were measured on wave 2. The results, presented in appendix Table A6, replicate the ANES results presented here, and provide confirmation that we can be confident that levels of white identity were not likely influenced by other survey questions measured on the same wave of the ANES studies.

  29. Robustness checks are provided in appendix Table A7. Racial stereotype items were not available on 2018 ANES Pilot Study.

  30. Analysis available upon request.

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Acknowledgements

I thank Ted Brader, Vincent Hutchings, Spencer Piston, Ismail White, Nathan Kalmoe, Alexander Von Hagen-Jamar, and the three anonymous reviewers for their helpful feedback on this paper.

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    Ashley Jardina

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Jardina, A. In-Group Love and Out-Group Hate: White Racial Attitudes in Contemporary U.S. Elections. Polit Behav 43, 1535–1559 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-020-09600-x

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