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Probable maximum tropical cyclone parameters for east and west coast of India

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Abstract

Storm surge simulation models require certain parameters for evaluating the worst possible event that could occur at a site with respect to a certain return period. The most significant probable maximum tropical cyclone parameters are pressure deficiency at the centre (ΔP) and maximum wind speed (Vmax) during the cyclone. In this study, the probable maximum tropical cyclone parameters that would yield the maximum probable storm surge along the Indian coasts of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are estimated. Datasets are created based on various existing data archives for each basin. The datasets are subjected to extreme value analysis for determining the ΔP and Vmax parameters. The data are fitted to various probability distributions (Gumbel, Fréchet, Weibull and Log-normal) whose parameters (scale, shape, and location parameters) are estimated using graphical (least square fit) and numerical (order statistics approach) methods. A mean recurrence interval of 1000 and 10,000 years is considered for strategic structures. The best fit distribution and its parameters are obtained based on goodness of fit criteria. The resulting ΔP and Vmax are compared with theoretical maximum cyclone parameter values of each basin and revised till an optimal set of values are reached. The analysis shows that ΔP and Vmax values for Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are best represented by Weibull distribution. The estimated parameters are useful input to a storm surge model to determine the design basis flood level for the strategic coastal sites.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the technical support of Mr. Pankaj Kumar Srivastava, Nuclear Recycle Board (NRB), Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC), India in this investigation. We are grateful to the Ocean Engineering Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Bombay for providing the computational resources. The data resources of India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been a valuable asset in completing this research. We thank the Editor and anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and corrections which contributed to improving this manuscript.

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The authors did not receive any financial support to conduct the research work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Homi Bhabha National Institute (HBNI), Mumbai, India

    D. Satish Kumar & A. Vinod Kumar

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IITB), Powai, Mumbai, India

    Manasa Ranjan Behera

  3. Advanced Heavy Water Reactor Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Mumbai, India

    Saikrishna Nadella

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  1. D. Satish Kumar
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  4. A. Vinod Kumar
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All authors contributed to the study. The first draft of the manuscript was written by DSK and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to D. Satish Kumar.

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Kumar, D.S., Behera, M.R., Nadella, S. et al. Probable maximum tropical cyclone parameters for east and west coast of India. Nat Hazards 116, 2437–2455 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05773-2

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