Abstract
Drought is one of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters. Based on future climate scenarios and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, the copula framework was employed to calculate the probabilities of meteorological and hydrological drought risks for the next 30 years (2021–2050) in the Wanquan River Basin, meanwhile, the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts was revealed by correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform (XWT). The results are as follows: (1) In the next 30 years, the risk of intra-seasonal meteorological drought (short-term drought) in the WRB is high at a probability of 40–70%, while the risk of inter-seasonal meteorological drought is relatively small at a probability of close to 30%; (2) compared with meteorological drought, the risk of intra-seasonal hydrological drought is small, but the probability of inter-seasonal hydrological drought (medium- or long-term drought) is 30–50%, and the risk of hydrological drought in the upstream is greater than that in the downstream; (3) the future meteorological and hydrological droughts in the WRB are significantly and positively correlated, and that hydrological drought lags behind meteorological drought.
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Acknowledgements
We are very grateful to the editor and reviewers for their constructive comments, which helped us to improve the quality of the article. The authors acknowledge the following foundations for providing financial support for this work: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52179029 and 51879289), the Innovation Fund of Guangzhou City water science and technology (GZSWKJ-2020-2) and the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2019B1515120052).
Funding
This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52179029 and 51879289), the Innovation Fund of Guangzhou City water science and technology (GZSWKJ-2020-2) and the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2019B1515120052).
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D.L.: Methodology, Software, Validation, Investigation, Visualization, Writing—original draft. B. L.: Conceptualization; funding acquisition; project administration; supervision. C.Y.: Resources, Investigation, validation; writing-original draft.
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Li, D., Liu, B. & Ye, C. Meteorological and hydrological drought risks under changing environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China. Nat Hazards 114, 2941–2967 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05500-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05500-x