Abstract
Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly disaster-prone areas of the lower Teesta River basin in Bangladesh, this study explores households’ risk perception of drought, earthquake, and flood at the local level. The ordered probit regression model was applied to identify the factors influencing household disaster risk perception. Most of the respondents perceived the likelihood of occurring drought, earthquake, and flood hazards on a large scale in the selected areas which cause negative impacts on their quality of life and financial losses. They have lack knowledge on mitigation actions which makes them unable to control the devastating impacts of disasters. Econometric results show that households’ age, gender, education, and income-generating sources had significantly influenced the respondent’s drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception. Female participants have less knowledge on mitigations actions and are less capable of controlling the hazards than their counterparts making them more vulnerable to the impacts of hazards. Urgent action is required to improve their socio-economic conditions, and to reduce the knowledge gap between males and females as well as to improve the household’s understanding of mitigation and preparedness for disaster risk.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Data are available upon request to the corresponding author.
References
Abid MEA, Scheffran J, Schneider UA, Ashfaq M (2015) Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth Syst Dyn 6(1):225–243
Ahmad D, Afzal M (2020) Flood hazards and factors influencing household flood perception and mitigation strategies in Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08057-z
Ahmed B, Kelman I, Kamruzzaman M, Mohiuddin H, Rahman MM, Das A, Shamsudduha M (2019) Indigenous people’s responses to drought in northwest Bangladesh. Environ Dev 29:55–66
Ahmed Z, Guha GS, Shew AM, Alam GMM (2021) Climate change risk awareness and agricultural adaptation strategies in vulnerable riverine char islands of Bangladesh. Land Pol 103:105295
Alam SMN (2007) Perceptions of flood among bangladeshi villagers. Disasters 14(4):354–357
Alam E (2019) Importance of long-term earthquake, tsunami and tropical cyclone data for disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh. Prog Disast Sci 2:100019
Alam GMM, Alam K, Mushtaq S (2017) Climate change perceptions and local adaptation strategies of hazard-prone rural households in Bangladesh. Clim Risk Manag 17:52–63
Alam GMM, Alam K, Mushtaq S (2018) Drivers of food security of vulnerable rural households in Bangladesh: implications for policy and development. South Asia Econ J 19(1):43–63
Alauddin M, Tisdell CA (2006). Students' evaluation of teaching effectiveness: what surveys tell and what they do not tell (No. 1742-2016-140712)
Arfanuzzaman M, Syed MA (2018) Water demand and ecosystem nexus in the transboundary river basin: a zero-sum game. Environ Dev Sustain 20(2):963–974
Azad AK, Hossain KM, Nasreen M (2013) Flood-induced vulnerabilities and problems encountered by women in northern Bangladesh. Int J Disast Risk Sci 4(4):190–199
Banglapedia (2021) National encyclopedia of Bangladesh. Asiatic Society of Bangladesh, Dhaka
Barua U, Akhter MS, Ansary MA (2016) District-wise multi-hazard zoning of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 82(3):1895–1918
BBS (2014) Small area atlas Bangladesh, Bangladesh bureau of statistics, statistics and information division, ministry of planning. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka
BBS (2015) Small area atlas bangladesh, bangladesh bureau of statistics, statistics and information division, ministry of planning. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Dhaka
Birkholz S, Muro M, Jeffrey P, Smith HM (2014) Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management. Sci Total Environ 478:12–20
Castro CP, Sarmiento JP, Edwards R, Hoberman G, Wyndham K (2017) Disaster risk perception in urban contexts and for people with disabilities: case study on the city of Iquique (Chile). Nat Hazards 86(1):411–436
Choudhury M, Verma S, Saha P (2016). Effects of earthquake on the surrounding environment: an overview. In: Proceedings of international conference on recent advances in mechanics and materials
Cochran WG (1977) Sampling techniques, 3rd edn. John Wiley, New York
Daramola AY, Oni OT, Ogundele O, Adesanya A (2016) Adaptive capacity and coping response strategies to natural disasters: a study in Nigeria. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 15:132–147
Dastagir MR (2015) Modeling recent climate change induced extreme events in Bangladesh: a review. Weather ClimExtrem 7:49–60
Della Lucia SM, Minim VPR et al (2013) Ordered probit regression analysis of the effect of brand name on beer accepted by consumers. Food Sci Technol 35(3):586–597
Duncan CS, Khattak AJ, Council FM (1998) Applying the ordered probit model to injury severity in truck-passenger car rear-end collisions. Transp Res Rec 1635(1):63–71
Fadina AMR, Barjolle D (2018) Farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change and their implications in the Zou department of South Benin. Environments 5(1):15
Ferdous J, Mallick D (2019) Norms, practices, and gendered vulnerabilities in the lower Teesta basin, Bangladesh. Environ Dev 31:88–96
Fernandez G, Tun AM, Okazaki K, Zaw SH, Kyaw K (2018) Factors influencing fire, earthquake, and cyclone risk perception in Yangon, Myanmar. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 28:140–149
Gbetibouo GA (2009) Understanding Farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change and variability: the case of Limpopo Basin, South Africa. In International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Discussion paper 00849
Grothmann T, Reusswig F (2006) People at risk of flooding: why some residents take precautionary action while others do not. Nat Hazards 38(1–2):101–120
Habiba U, Shaw R, Takeuchi Y (2012) Farmer’s perception and adaptation practices to cope with drought: perspectives from Northwestern Bangladesh. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 1:72–84
Habiba U, Shaw R, Takeuchi Y (2014) Farmers’ adaptive practices for drought risk reduction in the northwest region of Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 72(2):337–359
Haque CE, Azad M, Choudhury MUI (2019) Discourse of flood management approaches and policies in Bangladesh: mapping the changes, drivers, and actors. Water 11(12):2654
Haque SM (2015). Seismic risk assessment in Bangladesh for Bogra, Dinajpur, Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Rangpur and Tangail City Corporation/Paurashava Areas, Bangladesh
Ho MC, Shaw D, Lin S, Chiu YC (2008) How do disaster characteristics influence risk perception? Risk Anal Int J 28(3):635–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.15396924.2008.01040.x
Islam ARMT, Ahmed I, Rahman MS (2020) Trends in cooling and heating degreedays overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes. Natural Hazards 101:879–909. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03900-5
Islam A, Ghosh S (2021a) Community-based riverine flood risk assessment and evaluating its drivers: evidence from Rarh Plains of India. Appl Spatial Anal Policy. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-021-09384-5
Islam A, Ghosh S (2021b) Economic transformation in the wake of flood: a case of the lower stretch of the Mayurakshi River Basin, India. Environ Dev Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01310-6
Islam ARMT, Haque ME (2018) Recent flood cause, consequence and adaptation strategies: People’s perception-based study on northern Bangladesh. Disast Manag J 1(1):49–64
Islam A, Laskar N, Ghosh P (2012) An areal variation of fluvial hazard perceptions of various social groups: a perspective from Rural West Bengal, India. Indian Streams Res J 2(9):1–9
Islam ARMT, Tasnuva A, Sarker SC, Rahman MM, Mondal MSH, Islam MMU (2014) Drought in Northern Bangladesh: social, agroecological impact and local perception. Int J Ecosyst 4(3):150–158
Islam R, Islam MN, Islam MN (2016) Earthquake risks in Bangladesh: causes, vulnerability, preparedness and strategies for mitigation. ARPN J Earth Sci 5(2):75–90
Islam ARM, Shen S, Hu Z, Rahman MA (2017) Drought hazard evaluation in boro paddy cultivated areas of western Bangladesh at current and future climate change conditions. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/3514381
Islam ARMT, Shill BK, Salam R, Siddik MNA, Patwary MA (2021a) Insight into farmers’ agricultural adaptive strategy to climate change in northern Bangladesh. Environ Dev Sustain 23:2439–2464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00681-6
Islam ARMT, Hasanuzzaman M, Jaman M, Alam E, Mallick J, Alam GMM, Sattar MA, Techato K (2021b) Assessing Farmer’s typologies of perception for adopting sustainable adaptation strategies in Bangladesh. Climate 9:167. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9120167
Kamruzzaman M, Mandal T, Rahman ATM, Khalek A, Alam GMM (2021) Climate modeling, drought risk assessment and adaptation strategies in the western part of Bangladesh. In: Alam GMM et al (eds) Climate vulnerability and resilience in the global south. Springer, pp 103–129
Kellens W, Zaalberg R, Neutens T, Vanneuville W, De Maeyer P (2011) An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast. Risk Anal Int J 31(7):1055–1068
Khan AA, Rana IA, Nawaz A (2020) Gender-based approach for assessing risk perception in a multi-hazard environment: a study of high schools of Gilgit, Pakistan. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 44:101427
Lechowska E (2018) What determines flood risk perception? A review of factors of flood risk perception and relations between its basic elements. Nat Hazards 94(3):1341–1366
Liu D, Li Y, Shen X, Xie Y, Zhang Y (2018) Flood risk perception of rural households in western mountainous regions of Henan Province, China. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 27:155–160
Mabe FN, Sienso G, Donkoh S (2014) Determinants of choice of climate change adaptation strategies in northern Ghana. Res Appl Econ 6:75
Mamun AA, Roy S, Islam ARMT, Alam GMM, Alam E, Pal SC, Sattar MA, Mallick J (2021) Smallholder farmers’ perceived climate-related risk, impact, and their choices of sustainable adaptation strategies. Sustainability 13:11922. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111922
Mardy T, Uddin MN, Sarker M, Roy D, Dunn ES (2018) Assessing coping strategies in response to drought: a micro level study in the north-west region of Bangladesh. Climate 6(2):23
McKelvey RD, Zavoina W (2007) A statistical model for the analysis of ordinal level dependent variables. Positive Changes in political science: the legacy of Richard D. McK-elvey’s Most Influential Writings, 143–64
Mills M, Mutafoglu K, Adams VM, Archibald C, Bell J, Leon JX (2016) Perceived and projected flood risk and adaptation in coastal Southeast Queensland, Australia. Clim Change 136(3–4):523–537
Pal S, Islam ARM, Patwary MA, Alam GMM (2021) Modeling household socio-economic vulnerability to natural disaster in teesta basin, Bangladesh. In: Alam GMM et al (eds) Climate vulnerability and resilience in the global south. Springer, pp 103–129
Paul BK (1997) Flood research in Bangladesh in retrospect and prospect: a review. Geoforum 28(2):121–131
Paul BK (1998) Coping mechanisms practised by drought victims (1994/5) in North Bengal, Bangladesh. Appl Geography 18(4):355–373
Paul BK, Bhuiyan RH (2010) Urban earthquake hazard: perceived seismic risk and preparedness in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. Disasters 34(2):337–359
Peacock WG, Brody SD, Highfield W (2005) Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida’s single family homeowners. Landsc Urban Plan 73(2–3):120–135
Pidgeon N (1998) Risk assessment, risk values and the social science programme: why we do need risk perception research. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 59(1):5–15
Plapp T, Werner U (2006) Understanding risk perception from natural hazards: examples from Germany. In: RISK21-coping with risks due to natural hazards in the 21st century. CRC Press. pp. 111–118
Qasim S, Qasim M, Shrestha RP, Khan AN, Tun K, Ashraf M (2016) Community resilience to flood hazards in Khyber Pukhthunkhwa province of Pakistan. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 18:100–106
Rahman ML (2019) Risk perception and awareness of earthquake: the case of Dhaka. Int J Disast Resil Built Environ 10(1):65–82. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-04-2018-0020
Rahman MM (2017) Perceptions of flood risk and investment decisions in Bangladesh (Doctoral dissertation, UNESCO-IHE)
Rana IA, Routray JK (2016) Actual vis-à-vis perceived risk of flood prone urban communities in Pakistan. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 19:366–378
Rana IA, Jamshed A, Younas ZI, Bhatti SS (2020) Characterizing flood risk perception in urban communities of Pakistan. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 46:101624
Renn O (2001) The need for integration: risk policies require the input from experts, stakeholders and the public at large. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 72(2):131–135. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00014-X
Salam R, Ghose B, Shill BK, Islam MA, Islam ARMT, Sattar MA, Ahmed B (2021) Perceived and actual risks of drought: household and expert views from the lower Teesta River Basin of northern Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 108:2569
Sattar MA, Cheung KK (2019) Tropical cyclone risk perception and risk reduction analysis for coastal Bangladesh: household and expert perspectives. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 41:101283
Shah AA, Ye J, Abid M, Ullah R (2017) Determinants of flood risk mitigation strategies at household level: a case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 88(1):415–430
Shapira S, Aharonson-Daniel L, Bar-Dayan Y (2018) Anticipated behavioral response patterns to an earthquake: the role of personal and household characteristics, risk perception, previous experience and preparedness. Int J Disast Risk Reduct 31:1–8
Sjöberg L (2000) Factors in risk perception. Risk Anal 20(1):1–12. https://doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00001
Tingsanchali T (2012) Urban flood disaster management. Proc Eng 32:25–37
Udmale P, Ichikawa Y, Manandhar S, Ishidaira H, Kiem AS (2014) Farmers’ perception of drought impacts, local adaptation and administrative mitigation measures in Maharashtra State, India. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 10:250–269
Ullah W, Nihei Y, Nafees M, Zaman A, Ali M (2018) Understanding climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at household level in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Int J Clim Change Strateg Manag 10(3):359–378. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2017-0038
Wachinger G, Renn O, Begg C, Kuhlicke C (2013) The risk perception paradox: implications for governance and communication of natural hazards. Risk Anal 33(6):1049–1065
Wang Z, Wang H, Huang J, Kang J, Han D (2018) Analysis of the public flood risk perception in a flood-prone city: the case of Jingdezhen city in China. Water 10(11):1577
Wens M, Johnson JM, Zagaria C, Veldkamp TI (2019) Integrating human behavior dynamics into drought risk assessment: a sociohydrologic, agent-based approach. Wiley Interdiscipl Rev Water 6(4):e1345
www.thedailystar.net (2021)
Zhang F, Chen Y, Zhang J, Guo E, Wang R, Li D (2019) Dynamic drought risk assessment for maize based on crop simulation model and multi-source drought indices. J Clean Prod 233:100–114
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank all the survey participants in this research and the local people for assisting on numerous occasions. The authors also acknowledge the Department of Disaster Management of Begum Rokeya University for all sorts of support to conduct this study.
Funding
The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University for funding this work through Research Group under Grant Number (RGP2/169/43).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
RS and RA designed, planned, conceptualized, and drafted the original manuscript; and RS and RA were involved in statistical analysis and interpretation; ARMTI, JM, AI, and GMMA contributed in instrumental setup, and validation; ARMT, AI, GMMA, and MNAS contributed in editing the manuscript, literature review, and proofreading; GMMA, JM, and ARM. TI were involved in mapping and proofreading during the manuscript drafting stage.
Corresponding authors
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. There were no relevant financial or non-financial competing interests to report.
Consent to participate
Consents were taken following the standard ethics approval.
Consent to publish
Consents were taken following the standard ethics approval.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mallick, J., Salam, R., Amin, R. et al. Assessing factors affecting drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh. Nat Hazards 112, 1633–1656 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05242-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05242-w